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Career Education Corp. Message Board

betasplen1 198 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 4:29 PM Member since: Mar 2, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Strong on high volume

    by yesplease321 Dec 19, 2014 4:08 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Dec 19, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    DARA and VVUS will be great Jan effect stocks. Too much potential to be sitting near cash levels for so long. I think DARA will be around $1.30-1.50 while VVUS will be $5-6, even without news.

  • Reply to

    What Does This Mornings Trading Tell The Shorts?

    by mooky8639 Dec 9, 2014 9:52 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Dec 9, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    Even without news, I see this in the $4.50-5 range in Jan 15. This has all the ingredients to make a great Jan effect stock. High short ratio, 2 FDA approved drugs which appeals to the public - sex and weight loss, steadily growing revenues, ravaged by tax selling and trading at cash levels. But I would like to see a partnership for Qsymia (with upfront payments) and TV ads for STENDRA (by AUXL) in the new year. That will really get this rocking. Fair value is $10, given the current fundamentals and short squeeze potential.

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Dec 4, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    I see this being one of the Jan effect stocks running in 2015. Shorts are talking about potentially running out of cash in 2018, assuming no effect from AUXL's upcoming advertising of STENDRA 15 min onset or Qsymia's new patents or improving sales figures or any new partners. Lots of assumptions over a 3 year period and complacency that could prove costly for them and lucrative to discerning investors. 37% of the float is currently shorted. This should be fairly valued at a PS of 10 or $12/share with the above potential catalysts

  • Reply to

    Just 30K shares

    by betasplen1 Nov 6, 2014 9:53 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Thanks for the news after the fact. I sold from 60 cents down to 25 cents. It was brutal. I need to personally pay Adam carter a visit. And it is not for chatting over a nice meal on the strip...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Thanks. I just don't understand how investors have no foresight. Is it really the case where they want to see the proof in the pudding before buying? That's fine with me. I can't stand buying stocks that have been running for a year now but they keep going up. If they want to wait till $10 to start buying, so be it...

  • Reply to

    Here's what's happening

    by betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 10:52 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    They will cover after re-structuring/BK is officially announced and the stock gets moved over to the pinksheets. I think the SP will be about 3-4 cents at that time, since there is typically a 50% drop on BK news, even if everyone already knew it will happen. Then the covering will take this up to 10-15 cents, depending on short interest, before dropping off the face of the planet when shares are canceled. That is how it usually goes...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    mooky, Why did they wait 2 months after FDA decision to start advertising? Just wondering...

  • Reply to

    Don't forget the FACTS.

    by jgeorge7629 Nov 20, 2014 5:47 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    Next year's revenue forecast is $5MM. A fair PS is 10 (for pharma stocks). That makes it a $2.50 stock right there. Add speculation on the worth of KRN5500 and $4 is a conservative target (without RS for the smart alecs).

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    This is a no-brainer to ride into 2015. It will at least triple by Spring 2015. I added 15K shares. If Stendra sales are just quarter of Cialis - and I don't see why it shouldn't be the top seller eventually as the word goes out - this is a $30 stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    The volume and price action suggests a reversal. This will be a key Jan effect stock that should move up briskly. We are in a better position (fundamentally) now than at $10 earlier this year.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Nov 21, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    The institutions have started selling since yesterday afternoon when the volume suddenly perked up and the price started dropping. By the time they are done, this will be in 4 cent range, according to my estimate. That is when to buy as the shorts will take it right back up to the 12-15 cent area. They have no interest to cover since BK is all but certain now. Besides, if they were covering, the price will be steady instead of dropping. What happened to Mystery? I see the troll is crowing about his imaginary trades...

  • Reply to

    Sent a hateful email to Ms. Dunlap

    by quickkeeping1 Nov 20, 2014 1:56 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Quick, you are going about doing all the wrong things. First suicide talk, now wishing harm on others. You gotta be a cold, calculating machine - How do I make the best use of this #$%$ situation? You gotta play the Wall St game. I was way wrong on the sale news. I thought they will at least get 1.5MM per campus. They sold it for less than a third of that and set the floor for the remaining schools! No way they can cover their debt obligations other than filing for BK. DoE doesn't care as the students will be transferred like they wanted. I mentioned a few months ago that I had a plan B and this is it. You can still potentially recover half your money back. Lot better than your Plan B...

  • Reply to

    AUXL Is Now Ramping Up STENDRA Marketing

    by mooky8639 Nov 20, 2014 10:26 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    Excellent news. Thanks.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    I am not a financial advisor and so take this advice with a truckload of salt. There is potential to get back more of your money. If you sell today and buy the same amount (in dollars or 3 times the shares) back at 4 cents and then ride it back to these levels on the squeeze, that is equivalent to getting about 40 cents or half your money back. Just a thought. The shorts are not going to cover as they smell blood now and will only cover after the BK filing. All IMHO...

  • Reply to

    $24M???

    by betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 9:47 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    fxm, I was the biggest long here. This one is done. They might try to salvage Heald and get rid of the debt at the same time by filing Ch 11, giving the bond holders equity in the new stock and then re-emerge as a leaner school. Even if the DoE agrees to that, which I highly doubt, the current commons are wiped out in either scenario. I would sell here, buy at 4 cents and participate in the short squeeze back to these levels. That's my plan anyway...

  • Reply to

    $24M???

    by betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 9:47 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Yes, they have no other choice but to file BK to erase the rest of the debt. I am out. Will get back in for the squeeze after they declare BK. The shorts officially won. There will be a run from 4 cents to 15 cents after the announcement, which is inevitable now.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Nov 20, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    That's all for 56 campuses? They gave it away... This is disappointing. All this wait for this? How are they going to pay their long term debt now? I am afraid the writing is on the wall...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 19, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Filing requires a lot of time and money that they can't spare. The positive spin is like what you said. The negative spin would be they will rather file BK in Jan then bother with the 10Q. If they did take the trouble to file to stay in compliance with NASDAQ, which should be the least of their priorities right now, that would indicate that they intend to continue as a viable entity after the sale. I hope this drama is over in the next couple of weeks and everybody moves on. It has been a long, tough wait to say the very least...

  • Reply to

    Can't Resist Suicide Anymore

    by quickkeeping1 Nov 18, 2014 5:15 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 19, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    hoto, now that is deep (and ominous). I do agree you got to let nature or fate take its course. Though I don't believe in YOLO (you only live once), you got to make the most out of it as you never know what the next life will bring. Be constructive, be helpful. Your misfortunes (and even success) were meant to be and you have little control over it. But you can control how to react to it. Do your best and leave the results to be what they were preordained to be. Quick you are a grown up. We can't make up your mind. But listen to what is being said by some over here and think about the big picture, not just your losses in COCO which is just part of your life's trials and tribulations..

  • Reply to

    NO VALUE

    by yp_andy_westfield_848 Nov 18, 2014 9:20 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Nov 18, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    We get your point. You can move on now...

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