In this kind of market condition, I see NLNK test 15 by year end
without any positive news, with the added pressure from year end
tax loss selling, IMO.
I hate it, the news may be leaked, today after close or before the
open tomorrow, over all positive or subset IP positive, that is only
outcome for today's action and options premium, IMO.
Perfect match up to SRPT, about 1500 patient target and price of $300K/ patient/year,
peak sales estimate $500M. But CPRX beats SRPT at manufacturing cost, Eteplirsen
costs $100K per patient/year, IMO.
We are talking about price target within two weeks or by OCT 15, if TNXP gets
FDA's OK to file NDA without second PIII trial next year, like ACAD did, we may
see your target. By the way, no second PIII trial has a very good chance to happen
if this coming PIII results are very strong and clean, IMO.
I am using 1 time conservative peak sales $300M for the valuation after
the results, if the results are positive, about $30 is my price target.
According to ADHD reseach, total ADHD market in 2013 is 60M RX and $8 billion
sales, about 50%/50% children/adults, within the 30 million adult RX $4B bllion sales,
half of them are ADHD-PI, so the market potential for MDX in subset PI is $2B and growing
faster than the total ADHD market, worst case is MDX target for ADHD-IP with
50% market share that will produce $1billion sales.
By looking at the OCT option volume today, I guess market is positioning
the results on Monday, 22nd, IMO.
the topline results are coming in by Sept 30th, any day in next 7 trading days.
My bets: topline is good like the PII results, 55 to 75 stock, much stronger than
PII data, 85 to 100 stock, good luck longs!!!!!!!!!!!
The OVTI stock is priced in 90% chance $29 buyout. Look at CNQR,
SAP bought CNQR las tnight for $129 cash, and market discounted to 127.20
now even 100% CNQR is sold for 129 cash in few month the deal closed.
I think we may hear the official rumors for $32 or the final deal at $32+
by the end of Sept, IMO.
That is $32/share, my estimate is $2B, $35/share is the fair value,
$20 book value(cash + long term investments) + 0.6 X $1.43B/57.7
sales = $35, guess 32 to 35 may get the deal done.
Just a reference:
PBYI is worth 4 time estimated peak sales $2 after positive PIII results: $8B market cap now.
Risk adjusted of using peak sales $2.2B from ADHD or analyts' from $800M to $1.1M and
one more PIII trial to go, one time peak sales after the results is very reasonable and conservative,
so I am looking for 55 to 75 if the results are positive, may be more if the efficacy data is overwhelmingly
Exactly, take a look at KM Figure 2: Anti-CALR response and Correlation with Survival,
we can see the curve separate at month of 17th, which tells me algenpantucel-L works
really well on a subset of patients and rest majority of the patients has very min effect.
This implys the second look has a high chance to continue, but the final has a very good
chance success because the very large end KM separation, the insider sells and increasing
short interest tell me they(insiders and wallstreet) position for this outcome, IMO.
For any one like to model the trial results, you will see what I am saying if you model
the KM separation start at 12 to 15 month.
The trail median tops at 26 to 27, that is all. I am out yesterday because the
market condition, short interest big increase, and insider selling month
after month but no buying, I will buy in again when the time and price are
Big guys' game plan shift one week to overlay the March action, here
is what happened in March:
Mar 21, 2014 426.10 428.34 405.74 405.99 3,824,400 405.99
Mar 20, 2014 419.67 432.20 419.50 424.27 2,070,700 424.27
Mar 19, 2014 419.87 425.45 417.06 420.09 1,504,500 420.09
Mar 18, 2014 422.37 426.26 416.50 420.25 2,098,300 420.25
Mar 17, 2014 428.19 430.80 422.31 422.72 1,527,900 422.72
Mar 14, 2014 427.73 434.99 423.00 424.49 2,141,300 424.49
Mar 13, 2014 439.71 440.28 428.28 430.06 1,627,200 430.06
Mar 12, 2014 433.68 439.50 429.68 436.58 1,733,500 436.58
Mar 11, 2014 442.64 446.68 435.65 437.48 1,492,600 437.48
Mar 10, 2014 448.47 448.78 432.10 439.95 2,205,600 439.95
Mar 7, 2014 454.07 454.54 445.51 448.37 1,653,400 448.37
Mar 6, 2014 454.94 458.00 448.99 450.51 1,687,000 450.51
If history repeats, NFLX closed today at about 478.50, and may go down $20
at lowest point next Monday, IMO.
Because too many 480 put open interest today, the big correction
is delayed to start next Monday, NFLX has lot of down side to catch
up with NDX100, we may see 10 to 15 down on Monday, and FED may
change interest guidance on Wed, NFLX down to 450 by next Friday's
close is my bet, IMO.