Because the full data is presented and FDA's boss hint their decision,
and Exon platform has $3-4B billion potential, first approval imminent,
corrupt wallstreet+DNP created a life time buying chance, Do your DD
and go watch the FDA's meeting, listen to FDA boss JW +Temple and
all the DMD expert+ boys' parents carefully, and make up your mind.
Sell the company to PFE or SNY or ??, let the rest of Exon program in
big pharm's hand, so FDA can AA them all with PII data, IMO.
and it is highly likely negative opinion, if that is the case
SRPT stock may go up 10+ more on the gain SRPT may get
from next month AA, SRPT is 100% OK to file in EU and approval
is a sure thing if FDA AA Etep next month, IMO.
Who is more powerful at FDA, Richard Pazdur or JW?
If Ricard Pazdur can turn a strong DNDN's positive vote
into a CRL, and you think JW can not turn SRPT's mild
negative vote into AA? Shorts and Some tweeters are
brain dead, just like many of the panel members, they
do not know how to read the leadership mind, it was so
obvious JW and BT told them OK to vote "YES" on question
7, and they have made up their mind to AA already
because JW and BT have the whole country backing them up, IMO.
First act proves me right, negative vote today, hopefully my
second act will play out right too. Commissioner or JW may over rule
DNP, this time it may be the reverse ending of DNDN drama, IMO.
Here is what I see the Etep process play out, we may see a negative vote,
and a surprise AA in May, one week early or late approval, how is that
for a dramatic ending?
Now we can see how 'Sick" and corrupt FDA is, the early release
BD in Jan and now releasing BD and questions at different time is
designed to create MAX pain for individual investors, IMO.
At least, Janney has the right price targets:
Janney $SRPT Positive panel vote - stock $40+; Conditional approval &no label-restrictions $70+; FDA decides to wait for PROMOVI -stock
If you check out ACAD short interests, it is at all time high too, and
increased 2.8M in March before the positive BD and panel vote.
For years, short flowed the theory of FDA needing one more trial,
concerns of more death on the treatment arm, and something is wrong
with the drug because CMC delays. In ACAD case, shorts lost.
Last few weeks' big call option trades has been at the ask, I like the 2016
Jan calls better because they catch the Drisa's EU deny+Etep Eu filing($10),
composition patents' win($10), and buyout upside, IMO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
look at ACAD short interest, it is at all time high too, 18.7M. it increased
2.7M in March. I think most of the short interest in SRPT and ACAD is longs
hedging their position by shorting Against the Box.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"We estimate peak drisapersen global sales of ~$1.3 billion, which assumes 50% of
eligible patients will be treated with an exon 51 skipping therapy and 70%
penetration for drisapersen."
ML SRPT last year report:
"Significant billion plus opportunity in DMD There are an estimated 75,000 patients with DMD globally, of which 13% are amendable
to exon 51 skipping treatment. Sarepta has already established a commercial team and
manufacturing and will be ready to launch immediately after approval. We model peak
penetration of 35%-40% leading to peak eteplirsen sales of ~$900M. The company is
also developing other exon therapies that collectively could treat ~45% of DMD patients."
NOW ETEP may be the only one to get approval for skipping Exon for many years,
and will own the WW market. How much is SRPT worth if Etep get AA? If we apply
healthy discount to ML estimates, it is still $1+B for Etep no matter how conservative
you are, Etep is going to price about $300 to $350k/year, 51 Exon boys from 4 year
old up will take Etep, 90+% penetration in US and EU, IMO.
Actually, most of SRPT the first eaks may come from FDA, remember IMCL's CRL
leaks, it was from on other than Director Richard Pazdur himself.
He will regret sold his stock too soon, SRPT stock actions last two years really
unsettle many long time bulls and they sold out this time in the 18 to 21,
but this time is real AA, FDA got their revenge against individual SRPT
and Etep supporters, the final act was releasing the BD on Jan 15th, killed
all the bullish in the money calls and caused a huge margin call selling
at loss for many longs, IMO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
GEVA sold for $8.4B to ALXN last year for peak sale of $1B. SRPT Exon platform
has $3 to $4B peak sales potential.
ACAD is the comparable market cap for SRPT if the panel vote is positive.
look at the street estimates of 2017 revenue, market potential $4B, time line
approval in US and EU, drugs no competition.......
ACAD market cap $3.25B /46.7=$71 SRPT stock, IMO.
You are right, MRK just won the patents case against GILD for the HCV drugs
of $20B revenues, jury says MRK did not contribute any thing to GILD's success
but only the patents, so jury awarded MRK 4% royalty, BMRN may just get the
same 4% royalty if it goes to jury trial. GILD think they can win on appeal, so
do SRPT, IMO.