Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR) Message Board

betonthenews 118 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Nov 27, 2007
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Reward/Risk analysis for CLDN

    by liudl168 5 hours ago
    betonthenews betonthenews 3 hours ago Flag

    The reward is huge, I see CLDN open $100+ if results are good,
    here is the reason why:

    Credit Suisse initiated CLDN a outperform on 10/13/2014 and indicates that
    it expects upon approval that MYDICAR dosages would be $36,000 in the U.S.
    and $23,000 in the E.U.

    My estimates:
    CLDN estimate US first target patient population is 350000 and assume EU with the same number
    patients, if MYDICAR reach peak 25% in US and EU conservatively, the peak sales for systolic HF:
    US(350K X 25% X$36k) + EU(350K X 25% X $23K)=$3.15B + $2B=$5.15 Billion.

  • betonthenews by betonthenews Mar 23, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Nomura analyst M. Ian Somaiya commented, "Our Buy rating is based on our view that eravacycline could be a best-in-class antibiotic for the treatment of complicated urinary tract infection (cUTI) and complicated intra-abdominal infection (cIAI), generating peak sales of $1.6bn. This is based on data that demonstrated broader coverage versus legacy and recently launched antibiotics. Combined with its oral step-down option, eravacycline would enable cUTI patients to begin treatment at the hospital (IV dose) and complete it at home (oral dose), which should lead to shorter hospital stays and more rapid adoption. TTPH in our view also carries lower relative clinical and regulatory risk given the release of positive top-line results from Phase III IGNITE 1 in cIAI and lead-in portion of the Phase III IGNITE 2 cUTI trial. We expect presentation of detailed data from these trials in 2015 (page 11) to support continued upside. However, the greatest potential source of upside is the passage of the DISARM Act, which could support higher pricing and the faster adoption rate of drugs approved after January 1, 2015."

    At very very conservative buyout of 3 times peak sales will be 4.8B, so far I have seen analysts peak sales
    from $1b to $1.6, using mid of the range is $1.3B, 3 times 1.3 is $3.9, low end is $3B.

  • IF we agree BIIB has the best data so far, compare to what LLY has gained
    $37B from its positive subset data, BIIB has some upside to catch up, IMO.

  • Reply to

    New buys

    by imdogginit Mar 23, 2015 9:36 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 23, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    I found two new buys today, Suntrust buy price 48 and Nomura buy 54.

  • Reply to

    I'm out !

    by jackthomas_2002 Mar 20, 2015 3:12 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 11:38 PM Flag

    The results clearly show BIIB037 is a very effective drug against AD,
    the safety is a concern, and hopefully manageable. BIIB gets another
    megabillion drug on the way. TYSABRI may cause death for very few
    patients, but the risk/reward is worth for patients to demand for FDA
    to put it back on market few years ago. Since the ARIA-E goes away
    in 4 weeksby stopping the treatments, BIIB may manage the risk by lowing the dose to 6mg,
    a drug holiday for 4 weeks, new ways to identify AD patients early
    to put on 3mg BIIB037 to prevent the build up of the amyloids(I think
    this last point is a good answer) which makes BIIB037 potential sales
    even bigger than $10+b many are saying now IMO.

  • LLY release PIII AD results on Aug 24 with positve results for subset
    mild patients, LLY was trading at 42, now at 76, 81% gain or 36B
    market cap. LLY 2012 sales 23B+earnings $4.32, 2015 estimate sales
    20B+earnings $3.16, no major drugs waiting approval, so I assume
    most of the $36B gain is from the positive AD results. BIIB has the
    best AD results so far that all agrees, so adding $47B market cap($200
    stock gain)to BIIB start from Dec 2nd the first PR about positive PI results
    which is about 308+200=$508, that is most of the price target analysts
    raise to today, that is fair price in weeks, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Why is TTPH management so quiet?

    by betonthenews Mar 18, 2015 11:42 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 10:02 PM Flag

    CEMP did ouptform TTPH since CEMP earnings CC,
    and after last two presentations, CEMP added about
    $8 to the stock.

  • Reply to

    I'm out !

    by jackthomas_2002 Mar 20, 2015 3:12 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 9:23 PM Flag

    I think comparing BIIB to BMY is not good one.
    Here is the numbers:
    BMY:
    Growth
    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 56.47
    Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1: 29.72
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 2.45
    Profits
    EBITDA (ttm)6: 3.92B
    Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 2.00B

    BIIB:
    Growth
    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 38.48
    Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1: 23.89
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.42
    Profits
    EBITDA (ttm)6: 4.60B
    Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 2.93B

    BIIB beats BMY in all the important measures of growth and profits,
    if market uses those BMY measures to value BIIB, BIIB may be close
    $600/share. All is relative, SP 500 is trading at 18X2015 earnings estimate
    of 3 to 4% growth, 10 year bonds get 2%, savings get 0.25%.

  • Reply to

    I'm out !

    by jackthomas_2002 Mar 20, 2015 3:12 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Why you do not compare to REGN with similar growth trading at
    11.5 time of 2016 sales? By the way, it is $10B today, next week
    BIIB may gain another $10B, but nothing wrong taking profits.

  • Reply to

    Why is TTPH management so quiet?

    by betonthenews Mar 18, 2015 11:42 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 18, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Hope so too, they may be waiting for PIII results to settle the buyout
    price. It is the best for the buyer to pay a fair price and to take control
    of the NDA. It is a too big a task for a small company like TTPH
    to scale up manufacturing for tens of millions dose to pass Q&A
    with FDA, SRPT and ACAD say no problem to scale up, a simple
    process, look at the results, has taken them two or more years to
    scale up, in ACAD case, still going to year 3.

  • TTPH skipped two conferences this month that TTPF attended last
    year, and CEMP CEO is going to every conference she can, and
    she is talking billions market potential.

  • Reply to

    Which stock is the better deal

    by liebel53 Mar 12, 2015 9:45 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 16, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    TTPH is going to present the full data for CIAI phase 3 trial and
    lead-in data for CUTI PIII trial by end of April. The lead-in data
    should tell the market with 95+% confidence what the final CUTI
    PIII trial results may be. so I think the sales auction may be starting
    in May, complete it by July, the buyer may want to take control of the
    filing NDA, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Which stock is the better deal

    by liebel53 Mar 12, 2015 9:45 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 16, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    It is a good idea to sell the company, look at ACAD, it is very hard
    to get every thing right for a small company to file NDA, get approval
    and launch a blockbuster drug. One more point about the buyout,
    if DISARM becomes the law before the buyout(highly likely), TTPH may
    be worth more than $3B, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Which stock is the better deal

    by liebel53 Mar 12, 2015 9:45 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 16, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Both are very good bets, but TTPH may has better gains in next 4 to 6 month.
    TTPH may get the second PIII trial results early than CEMP's, after the positive
    PIII results, TTPH CEO has said TTPH is on the market for sale for a right price,
    my guess is $2.5 to $3B, $70 to $80 offer. I do not think CEMP is willing to sell
    this year. Next year is a different story, IMO.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Mar 13, 2015 10:27 PM Flag

    I am very surprised you do not know that IMPRESS and Opdivo's have the
    same log rank analysis with HR and P value.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Mar 13, 2015 10:13 PM Flag

    To my limited knowledge, FDA has only one analysis rule for primary OS end point,
    that is the log rank analysis with HR and P value. nhyujm6 example is just like my
    of MDVN's, beautiful KM curve separating very early which means the drug effects
    most patient in trial arm. IF IMPRESS has a KM curve like that, CEO Link has no need
    to talk to FDA changing the analysis plan, second look is 100% stop, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Buyout Price? $55?

    by qofaslave69 Mar 10, 2015 12:22 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 10, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    No way, On par at least with ITMN buyout valuation, $85+!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    NO BUY OUT AT THIS TIME

    by crecy_war_knight Mar 10, 2015 11:50 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 10, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    Check out PCYC stock actions pre-buyout, people having "leaks" are not ready
    to issue rumors, next few days are different story, Friday may be the day, IMO.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Mar 10, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    By the way, if it is a buyout, there may be a rumor coming very soon, today
    or tomorrow, IMO.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Mar 10, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    which means what ever ACAD is working on, we may have the news
    next Monday.Now the logical reasoning is there is no need to pull out
    two conferences if it is the partnership talking, only thing that may required
    them to pull out is buyout and I think there is bidding war going on right now,
    IMO.

QCOR
93.600.00(0.00%)Aug 14 4:00 PMEDT