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Royal Dutch Shell plc Message Board

betonthenews 121 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2015 6:14 PM Member since: Nov 27, 2007
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  • betonthenews betonthenews Apr 16, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    The way I see it:
    Here is what I speculate: The IS trial has 6 trial sites in UK and two in Glasgow, so
    ESO 2015 committee may have a good idea how the results are and want ATHX
    to present it, ESCO 2015 committee breaks the later-abstract rules to allow
    ATHX to present the data under the condition no PR is issued before the presentation
    because ATHX can not meet the later-break deadline(open Feb12, close Mar 3).

  • Reply to

    So is this debatable?

    by jabatyme Apr 15, 2015 9:28 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Apr 15, 2015 10:50 PM Flag

    Agree, but ATHX PII trial cohost1 6:2 and cohost2 6:2, I think DMC can guess with
    confidence how Multistem performed with those 12 compare to 4 patients in the control
    arm, nothing is for sure until the final data reveals, IMO.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Apr 15, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    No, the PR is for the topline results without data, like primary end point
    is or is not statistically significant, tonight or tomorrow morning, IMO.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Apr 14, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    It is not over yet, if the results are SS, ATHX may issue a PR
    Thursday or Friday to just say the trial has met the primary end
    point and details to be presented on April 19th, you never know.

  • Reply to


    by siestadoc45 Apr 14, 2015 12:00 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Apr 14, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    If my best case happens(P =0.01 or better), it means the results is highly
    SS, Japan AA is possible if ATHX apply, FDA's BTD is a sure thing, $20 is
    the minimum, only $1.6B market cap for a drug has billions peak sales potential
    and 80% PIII success. ICPT NASH trial is about to start PIII and is worth 6B.

  • Reply to


    by siestadoc45 Apr 14, 2015 12:00 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Apr 14, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    If the primary P value is less than 0.01 or better, we may see a ICPT kind of reaction,
    Can we trust ATHX CEO's comments about the first two group's results translate into
    the big group 3?

  • betonthenews betonthenews Apr 10, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    I agree that the longer it takes for the DSMC to deliver the results, the better.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Apr 10, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    The IMPRESS SPA analysis plan is Log-rank analysis, expressed in Reduction of risk
    in HR, they are the same thing.

  • Reply to

    KITE Not on ASCO List ,,,

    by ronaldgreen230 Apr 6, 2015 1:28 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Apr 8, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    Watch PBS Cancer: The Emperor of All Maladies, you may see
    Dr Steven A Rosenberg is running PI/PII trials for solid tumors.
    In the show, Dr Steven revealed very good results of CR in melanoma
    and brain cancer, for one group 6 melanoma patients, Dr Steven says
    4 patients have CR(cured??) and 2 PR, one brain female patient is CR
    (cure??). I think KITE and Dr Steven may present those early results at ASCO's
    late-breaking sessions, IMO.

  • Reply to


    by meffaman Apr 7, 2015 5:10 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Apr 7, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    99% the second look news come out any day now, there is no way NLNK is
    going into conference with out the results out by next Monday, my guess is
    trial to continue and the stock has limited down side, IMO.

  • Reply to

    why it is for sale is beyond reasoning:

    by doctor92373 Apr 2, 2015 7:40 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Apr 3, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    I agree RCPT is not looking for a sale, but PCYC buyout and the payout
    ratio teaches big pharmas to buy out RCPT as a better option. JNJ pays billions
    for upfront payment+royalties+milestones, and only gets 1/2 the drug but
    only 1/3 net profits after all the cost to JNJ. Now the question is how much
    RCPT is willing to sale, $10B gets RCPT to talk, PCYC valuation set the par
    on RCPT buyout price.

  • betonthenews by betonthenews Mar 23, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Nomura analyst M. Ian Somaiya commented, "Our Buy rating is based on our view that eravacycline could be a best-in-class antibiotic for the treatment of complicated urinary tract infection (cUTI) and complicated intra-abdominal infection (cIAI), generating peak sales of $1.6bn. This is based on data that demonstrated broader coverage versus legacy and recently launched antibiotics. Combined with its oral step-down option, eravacycline would enable cUTI patients to begin treatment at the hospital (IV dose) and complete it at home (oral dose), which should lead to shorter hospital stays and more rapid adoption. TTPH in our view also carries lower relative clinical and regulatory risk given the release of positive top-line results from Phase III IGNITE 1 in cIAI and lead-in portion of the Phase III IGNITE 2 cUTI trial. We expect presentation of detailed data from these trials in 2015 (page 11) to support continued upside. However, the greatest potential source of upside is the passage of the DISARM Act, which could support higher pricing and the faster adoption rate of drugs approved after January 1, 2015."

    At very very conservative buyout of 3 times peak sales will be 4.8B, so far I have seen analysts peak sales
    from $1b to $1.6, using mid of the range is $1.3B, 3 times 1.3 is $3.9, low end is $3B.

  • IF we agree BIIB has the best data so far, compare to what LLY has gained
    $37B from its positive subset data, BIIB has some upside to catch up, IMO.

  • Reply to

    New buys

    by imdogginit Mar 23, 2015 9:36 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 23, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    I found two new buys today, Suntrust buy price 48 and Nomura buy 54.

  • Reply to

    I'm out !

    by jackthomas_2002 Mar 20, 2015 3:12 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 11:38 PM Flag

    The results clearly show BIIB037 is a very effective drug against AD,
    the safety is a concern, and hopefully manageable. BIIB gets another
    megabillion drug on the way. TYSABRI may cause death for very few
    patients, but the risk/reward is worth for patients to demand for FDA
    to put it back on market few years ago. Since the ARIA-E goes away
    in 4 weeksby stopping the treatments, BIIB may manage the risk by lowing the dose to 6mg,
    a drug holiday for 4 weeks, new ways to identify AD patients early
    to put on 3mg BIIB037 to prevent the build up of the amyloids(I think
    this last point is a good answer) which makes BIIB037 potential sales
    even bigger than $10+b many are saying now IMO.

  • LLY release PIII AD results on Aug 24 with positve results for subset
    mild patients, LLY was trading at 42, now at 76, 81% gain or 36B
    market cap. LLY 2012 sales 23B+earnings $4.32, 2015 estimate sales
    20B+earnings $3.16, no major drugs waiting approval, so I assume
    most of the $36B gain is from the positive AD results. BIIB has the
    best AD results so far that all agrees, so adding $47B market cap($200
    stock gain)to BIIB start from Dec 2nd the first PR about positive PI results
    which is about 308+200=$508, that is most of the price target analysts
    raise to today, that is fair price in weeks, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Why is TTPH management so quiet?

    by betonthenews Mar 18, 2015 11:42 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 10:02 PM Flag

    CEMP did ouptform TTPH since CEMP earnings CC,
    and after last two presentations, CEMP added about
    $8 to the stock.

  • Reply to

    I'm out !

    by jackthomas_2002 Mar 20, 2015 3:12 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 9:23 PM Flag

    I think comparing BIIB to BMY is not good one.
    Here is the numbers:
    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 56.47
    Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1: 29.72
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 2.45
    EBITDA (ttm)6: 3.92B
    Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 2.00B

    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 38.48
    Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1: 23.89
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.42
    EBITDA (ttm)6: 4.60B
    Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 2.93B

    BIIB beats BMY in all the important measures of growth and profits,
    if market uses those BMY measures to value BIIB, BIIB may be close
    $600/share. All is relative, SP 500 is trading at 18X2015 earnings estimate
    of 3 to 4% growth, 10 year bonds get 2%, savings get 0.25%.

  • Reply to

    I'm out !

    by jackthomas_2002 Mar 20, 2015 3:12 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 20, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Why you do not compare to REGN with similar growth trading at
    11.5 time of 2016 sales? By the way, it is $10B today, next week
    BIIB may gain another $10B, but nothing wrong taking profits.

  • Reply to

    Why is TTPH management so quiet?

    by betonthenews Mar 18, 2015 11:42 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Mar 18, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Hope so too, they may be waiting for PIII results to settle the buyout
    price. It is the best for the buyer to pay a fair price and to take control
    of the NDA. It is a too big a task for a small company like TTPH
    to scale up manufacturing for tens of millions dose to pass Q&A
    with FDA, SRPT and ACAD say no problem to scale up, a simple
    process, look at the results, has taken them two or more years to
    scale up, in ACAD case, still going to year 3.

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