That is right, I think SHPG may have to pay NPSP BMRN's valuation
because BMRN is very similar to NPSP in business of orphan drug.
Natpara, a drug to treat hypoparathyroidism that if authorized
would be the first marketed treatment for the potentially fatal disorder,
will have fast launch, there are 2000 emergency booklets requested
already under NPSP's patient awareness campaign. NPSP may ask
why Natpara is not worth $8B with 1+B sales potential with 12 years
market to it self.
The $5.7B comes from 15X NPSP 2015 sales estimate $382M.
5700/107=$53 is the price target market should give to NPSP
if Natpara is approved and has a better launch than Gattex, IMO.
On NPSP webside, all the numbers are presented on the DEC 11th
Oppenheimer 25th Annual Healthcare Conference. US only, total
50K patients, Natpara targets 30 to 40% of the 50K who have uncontrolled
and sever conditions, that is 15 to 20K patient pool, CFO says price in
$50 to $100K range depending on label. EU has the same patient numbers
but 20% less on price. Natpara sure is a billion dollar drug.
BMRN is trading at 15 times of 2015 estimates sales. BMRN traded at $5 to 6 billion
market for long few years ago with sales in the $350 to $400 range, with Natpara approval
in Jan, market should reward NPSP a higher market multiples because derisk with two
orphan drug approval with $B potential.
BMRN is trading at 15 times of 2015 sales, if NPSP trades at
same multiples, NPSP is worth $5.7B after Natpara approval
in Jan. ITMN and BMRN valuations should makes NPSP hard
to take a lowball offer, IMO.
Use ITMN as example:
Aug 13, rumor buyout, ITMN 45 to 52
Aug 25, buyout deal for $74, $8.3B by Roche
Oct 15, FDA approval of ITMN's drug pirfenidone which market estimates
peak sales $1B.
NPSP: according ML, Gattex + Natpara peak world wide sales of $2 to 2.2 billion
Is This How We'll Cure Cancer?
This story appears in the May 26, 2014 issue of Forbes.
But the developments at Penn point, tantalizingly, to something more, something that would rank among the great milestones in the history of mankind: a true cure. Of 25 children and 5 adults with Emily’s disease, ALL, 27 had a complete remission, in which cancer becomes undetectable. “
It’s a stunning breakthrough,” says Sally Church, of drug development advisor Icarus Consultants. Says Crystal Mackall, who is developing similar treatments at the National Cancer Institute: “It really is a revolution. This is going to open the door for all sorts of cell-based and gene therapy for all kinds of disease because it’s going to demonstrate that it’s economically viable.”
"Other competitors include an unpartnered CART program at MD Anderson Cancer Center and another from Kite Pharma, which has paired with NCI immunology pioneer Steven Rosenberg, and a third from biotech giant Celgene , which is working with tiny Bluebird Bio."
OK, let's me ask your if the coming data proves TG-202 is the better PI13K delta inhibitor
than INFI-145 and Idelalisib, what is TGTX worth?
if 101 and 202 PII data show good safety and efficacy data.
I use these estimates: 101 and 202 may get of Imbruvica's
patients and TGTX prices 101 and 202 half the cost of Imbruvica
(may be too low, but be very conservative here). we know street
estimate Imbruvica's peak sales of $6 Billion, and I get
$6BX1/2x1/2=$1.5B peak sales of 101 and 202. Once the PII
data proves safety and efficacy in blood cancer drugs, street
will price in high chance PIII positive results and FDA approval,
usually gives 1 time peak sales in weeks. We can see PCYC
has market cap $3+ B(1 time X 1/2 X $6, PCYC owns 1/2 of Imbruvica)
in July 2012, one month after strong PII data at ASCO. So my
target is $1.5B market cap for TGTX in Dec or Jan if the data
is strong at ASH, stock price $1.5B/38.5= $39 fair value, IMO.
One more trial of 202+Ibrutinib is filed with FDA, ready to go.
This research study will be evaluating the safety and efficacy
of a study drug called TGR-1202 in combination with a known
drug ibrutinib, also known as Imbruvica, as a possible treatment
for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma
(CLL/SLL) or Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) that has come back or
that has not responded to standard treatment.
Educated guess is the data should be strong, I take the
cue from TGTX actions of taking 100% control of 102,
FDA's OK for ORR end point of the PIII 101+Ibrutinib ,
adding 101+102+Ibrutinib to the on going PII which is
telling me Mono 102 safety and efficacy is good and TGTX
wants to test if the triple combo can dramatically increase the
CR rate and long term OS, IMO.
You may pay $1 or 2 more, but safer to buy if the abstract is positive. TGTX is
good long term investment if TGTX can get both of the 101 and 102 approved,
they will be part of the combo treatments in the $10B blood cancer market, 101
and 102 combo may help cancer patients to live a long time,Like HIV patients
do now with triple combo drugs, IMO.
Here is some information:
“When you project out from our phase II trials, in the first six months there wasn’t much difference,” Link told BioWorld Today. “At a year, there was about a 30 percent difference. By two years, there was a 60 percent difference. By three years, there was a 100 percent difference.” In short, the “pattern of survival” in immunotherapy shows much greater benefit as a trial progresses.
Amin agreed Monday morning, writing that “the second interim analysis of the trial needs to observe a +30 percent improvement in [overall survival] for the trial to be stopped for efficacy, which we believe may be a high bar.” Nevertheless, he expects the final analysis, upon reaching 444 events, could report a hazard ratio of approximately 0.80, “sufficient to drive a positive outcome.”
Now we know that the PII KM curves starts to separate at sixth month, to be conservative
and realistic, Can you find out the P value if the PIII KM curves start to separate at 10th month
and the 333th event at early Dec? My gut feeling is P value may be at 0.03 to 0.05 range,
short of P value 0.019 to stop the trial.
A wild guess, JNJ may be interested in buying RGLS for few Billions like IDIX(bought by MRK for $3.7B)
to make a combo to compete with GILD.
--There were no drug-drug interactions from part III of the ongoing study in which RG-101 was combined with simeprevir (OLYSIO™), an approved oral DAA (protease inhibitor), and the combination had no effect on the pharmacokinetic profile of RG-101 or simeprevir (OLYSIO™).
In this kind of market condition, I see NLNK test 15 by year end
without any positive news, with the added pressure from year end
tax loss selling, IMO.
I hate it, the news may be leaked, today after close or before the
open tomorrow, over all positive or subset IP positive, that is only
outcome for today's action and options premium, IMO.
Perfect match up to SRPT, about 1500 patient target and price of $300K/ patient/year,
peak sales estimate $500M. But CPRX beats SRPT at manufacturing cost, Eteplirsen
costs $100K per patient/year, IMO.