You may pay $1 or 2 more, but safer to buy if the abstract is positive. TGTX is
good long term investment if TGTX can get both of the 101 and 102 approved,
they will be part of the combo treatments in the $10B blood cancer market, 101
and 102 combo may help cancer patients to live a long time,Like HIV patients
do now with triple combo drugs, IMO.
Here is some information:
“When you project out from our phase II trials, in the first six months there wasn’t much difference,” Link told BioWorld Today. “At a year, there was about a 30 percent difference. By two years, there was a 60 percent difference. By three years, there was a 100 percent difference.” In short, the “pattern of survival” in immunotherapy shows much greater benefit as a trial progresses.
Amin agreed Monday morning, writing that “the second interim analysis of the trial needs to observe a +30 percent improvement in [overall survival] for the trial to be stopped for efficacy, which we believe may be a high bar.” Nevertheless, he expects the final analysis, upon reaching 444 events, could report a hazard ratio of approximately 0.80, “sufficient to drive a positive outcome.”
Now we know that the PII KM curves starts to separate at sixth month, to be conservative
and realistic, Can you find out the P value if the PIII KM curves start to separate at 10th month
and the 333th event at early Dec? My gut feeling is P value may be at 0.03 to 0.05 range,
short of P value 0.019 to stop the trial.
A wild guess, JNJ may be interested in buying RGLS for few Billions like IDIX(bought by MRK for $3.7B)
to make a combo to compete with GILD.
--There were no drug-drug interactions from part III of the ongoing study in which RG-101 was combined with simeprevir (OLYSIO™), an approved oral DAA (protease inhibitor), and the combination had no effect on the pharmacokinetic profile of RG-101 or simeprevir (OLYSIO™).
In this kind of market condition, I see NLNK test 15 by year end
without any positive news, with the added pressure from year end
tax loss selling, IMO.
I hate it, the news may be leaked, today after close or before the
open tomorrow, over all positive or subset IP positive, that is only
outcome for today's action and options premium, IMO.
Perfect match up to SRPT, about 1500 patient target and price of $300K/ patient/year,
peak sales estimate $500M. But CPRX beats SRPT at manufacturing cost, Eteplirsen
costs $100K per patient/year, IMO.
We are talking about price target within two weeks or by OCT 15, if TNXP gets
FDA's OK to file NDA without second PIII trial next year, like ACAD did, we may
see your target. By the way, no second PIII trial has a very good chance to happen
if this coming PIII results are very strong and clean, IMO.
I am using 1 time conservative peak sales $300M for the valuation after
the results, if the results are positive, about $30 is my price target.
According to ADHD reseach, total ADHD market in 2013 is 60M RX and $8 billion
sales, about 50%/50% children/adults, within the 30 million adult RX $4B bllion sales,
half of them are ADHD-PI, so the market potential for MDX in subset PI is $2B and growing
faster than the total ADHD market, worst case is MDX target for ADHD-IP with
50% market share that will produce $1billion sales.
By looking at the OCT option volume today, I guess market is positioning
the results on Monday, 22nd, IMO.
the topline results are coming in by Sept 30th, any day in next 7 trading days.
My bets: topline is good like the PII results, 55 to 75 stock, much stronger than
PII data, 85 to 100 stock, good luck longs!!!!!!!!!!!
The OVTI stock is priced in 90% chance $29 buyout. Look at CNQR,
SAP bought CNQR las tnight for $129 cash, and market discounted to 127.20
now even 100% CNQR is sold for 129 cash in few month the deal closed.
I think we may hear the official rumors for $32 or the final deal at $32+
by the end of Sept, IMO.
That is $32/share, my estimate is $2B, $35/share is the fair value,
$20 book value(cash + long term investments) + 0.6 X $1.43B/57.7
sales = $35, guess 32 to 35 may get the deal done.
Just a reference:
PBYI is worth 4 time estimated peak sales $2 after positive PIII results: $8B market cap now.
Risk adjusted of using peak sales $2.2B from ADHD or analyts' from $800M to $1.1M and
one more PIII trial to go, one time peak sales after the results is very reasonable and conservative,
so I am looking for 55 to 75 if the results are positive, may be more if the efficacy data is overwhelmingly
Exactly, take a look at KM Figure 2: Anti-CALR response and Correlation with Survival,
we can see the curve separate at month of 17th, which tells me algenpantucel-L works
really well on a subset of patients and rest majority of the patients has very min effect.
This implys the second look has a high chance to continue, but the final has a very good
chance success because the very large end KM separation, the insider sells and increasing
short interest tell me they(insiders and wallstreet) position for this outcome, IMO.
For any one like to model the trial results, you will see what I am saying if you model
the KM separation start at 12 to 15 month.