the topline results are coming in by Sept 30th, any day in next 7 trading days.
My bets: topline is good like the PII results, 55 to 75 stock, much stronger than
PII data, 85 to 100 stock, good luck longs!!!!!!!!!!!
The OVTI stock is priced in 90% chance $29 buyout. Look at CNQR,
SAP bought CNQR las tnight for $129 cash, and market discounted to 127.20
now even 100% CNQR is sold for 129 cash in few month the deal closed.
I think we may hear the official rumors for $32 or the final deal at $32+
by the end of Sept, IMO.
That is $32/share, my estimate is $2B, $35/share is the fair value,
$20 book value(cash + long term investments) + 0.6 X $1.43B/57.7
sales = $35, guess 32 to 35 may get the deal done.
Just a reference:
PBYI is worth 4 time estimated peak sales $2 after positive PIII results: $8B market cap now.
Risk adjusted of using peak sales $2.2B from ADHD or analyts' from $800M to $1.1M and
one more PIII trial to go, one time peak sales after the results is very reasonable and conservative,
so I am looking for 55 to 75 if the results are positive, may be more if the efficacy data is overwhelmingly
Exactly, take a look at KM Figure 2: Anti-CALR response and Correlation with Survival,
we can see the curve separate at month of 17th, which tells me algenpantucel-L works
really well on a subset of patients and rest majority of the patients has very min effect.
This implys the second look has a high chance to continue, but the final has a very good
chance success because the very large end KM separation, the insider sells and increasing
short interest tell me they(insiders and wallstreet) position for this outcome, IMO.
For any one like to model the trial results, you will see what I am saying if you model
the KM separation start at 12 to 15 month.
The trail median tops at 26 to 27, that is all. I am out yesterday because the
market condition, short interest big increase, and insider selling month
after month but no buying, I will buy in again when the time and price are
Big guys' game plan shift one week to overlay the March action, here
is what happened in March:
Mar 21, 2014 426.10 428.34 405.74 405.99 3,824,400 405.99
Mar 20, 2014 419.67 432.20 419.50 424.27 2,070,700 424.27
Mar 19, 2014 419.87 425.45 417.06 420.09 1,504,500 420.09
Mar 18, 2014 422.37 426.26 416.50 420.25 2,098,300 420.25
Mar 17, 2014 428.19 430.80 422.31 422.72 1,527,900 422.72
Mar 14, 2014 427.73 434.99 423.00 424.49 2,141,300 424.49
Mar 13, 2014 439.71 440.28 428.28 430.06 1,627,200 430.06
Mar 12, 2014 433.68 439.50 429.68 436.58 1,733,500 436.58
Mar 11, 2014 442.64 446.68 435.65 437.48 1,492,600 437.48
Mar 10, 2014 448.47 448.78 432.10 439.95 2,205,600 439.95
Mar 7, 2014 454.07 454.54 445.51 448.37 1,653,400 448.37
Mar 6, 2014 454.94 458.00 448.99 450.51 1,687,000 450.51
If history repeats, NFLX closed today at about 478.50, and may go down $20
at lowest point next Monday, IMO.
Because too many 480 put open interest today, the big correction
is delayed to start next Monday, NFLX has lot of down side to catch
up with NDX100, we may see 10 to 15 down on Monday, and FED may
change interest guidance on Wed, NFLX down to 450 by next Friday's
close is my bet, IMO.
What I means is at what price institution share holders will vote yes to
a buyout offer, that is why OVTI hired JPM to come up a fair value price
and present it to OVTI and institution share holders, the question is the fair
valuation too high a price HCM is willing to pay. Shorts are covering, it
means they see the game is over for them to stay and the buyout has a high
chance happening, IMO.
According to some Chinese comments on webside, HCM started the buyout talk
in May, I think OVTI and HCM have big gaps in fair valuations, so OVTI could not
be serious because the offer price was too low. HCM went public with a non-binding
offer to see what price the big institutions are willing to sell and if HCM offer the
price OVTI wants, which should be around $35 for $2B, HCM may have to for
the reasons the article presented, IMO.
The setup may mirror last March's action. On March 7th, NFLX was holding up well
down only $2, and BOOM, next Monday NFLX down at $16 at lowest point and closed
the week down $24, and down $43 on March 21st! Market conditions are in the same
setup, FED meeting, interest rate expectations up......
The larger 5.5-inch iPhone is likely to come with a sapphire display, while only certain versions of the 4.7-inch phone will feature a screen made of sapphire, according to analyst and investor Matt Margolis (via 9to5Mac).
iphone 6 orders because the first time china will launch at the same time
with US, China can sell 5 millions iphone 6 for the first weekend, IMO.
because the buy back, AAPL has less share outstanding and
700B is 700/6= $116.67 share now, we will see that price in early
price $775, let's see if my guess is right next month.
Ebola is good news to NLNK, but icing on the cake, the real news are coming
in few months with PaC PIII and NSCLC PII/III results, if both are positive, NLNK
may rock up to $500.