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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

betonthenews 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 10:18 AM Member since: Nov 27, 2007
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  • Reply to

    SHPG buyout of NPSP, how much? how fast?

    by betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 1:35 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Dec 19, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    BMRN has 5 approval drugs on the market now, non has the blockbuster
    potential.

  • Reply to

    SHPG buyout of NPSP, how much? how fast?

    by betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 1:35 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Dec 19, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    That is right, I think SHPG may have to pay NPSP BMRN's valuation
    because BMRN is very similar to NPSP in business of orphan drug.
    Natpara, a drug to treat hypoparathyroidism that if authorized
    would be the first marketed treatment for the potentially fatal disorder,
    will have fast launch, there are 2000 emergency booklets requested
    already under NPSP's patient awareness campaign. NPSP may ask
    why Natpara is not worth $8B with 1+B sales potential with 12 years
    market to it self.

  • Reply to

    SHPG buyout of NPSP, how much? how fast?

    by betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 1:35 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    The $5.7B comes from 15X NPSP 2015 sales estimate $382M.
    5700/107=$53 is the price target market should give to NPSP
    if Natpara is approved and has a better launch than Gattex, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Natpara approval

    by maddiemagnolia Dec 18, 2014 6:56 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    On NPSP webside, all the numbers are presented on the DEC 11th
    Oppenheimer 25th Annual Healthcare Conference. US only, total
    50K patients, Natpara targets 30 to 40% of the 50K who have uncontrolled
    and sever conditions, that is 15 to 20K patient pool, CFO says price in
    $50 to $100K range depending on label. EU has the same patient numbers
    but 20% less on price. Natpara sure is a billion dollar drug.

  • Reply to

    SHPG buyout of NPSP, how much? how fast?

    by betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 1:35 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    BMRN is trading at 15 times of 2015 estimates sales. BMRN traded at $5 to 6 billion
    market for long few years ago with sales in the $350 to $400 range, with Natpara approval
    in Jan, market should reward NPSP a higher market multiples because derisk with two
    orphan drug approval with $B potential.

  • Reply to

    SHPG buyout of NPSP, how much? how fast?

    by betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 1:35 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Dec 18, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    BMRN is trading at 15 times of 2015 sales, if NPSP trades at
    same multiples, NPSP is worth $5.7B after Natpara approval
    in Jan. ITMN and BMRN valuations should makes NPSP hard
    to take a lowball offer, IMO.

  • Use ITMN as example:
    Aug 13, rumor buyout, ITMN 45 to 52
    Aug 25, buyout deal for $74, $8.3B by Roche
    Oct 15, FDA approval of ITMN's drug pirfenidone which market estimates
    peak sales $1B.

    NPSP: according ML, Gattex + Natpara peak world wide sales of $2 to 2.2 billion

  • Is This How We'll Cure Cancer?
    This story appears in the May 26, 2014 issue of Forbes.

    But the developments at Penn point, tantalizingly, to something more, something that would rank among the great milestones in the history of mankind: a true cure. Of 25 children and 5 adults with Emily’s disease, ALL, 27 had a complete remission, in which cancer becomes undetectable. “
    It’s a stunning breakthrough,” says Sally Church, of drug development advisor Icarus Consultants. Says Crystal Mackall, who is developing similar treatments at the National Cancer Institute: “It really is a revolution. This is going to open the door for all sorts of cell-based and gene therapy for all kinds of disease because it’s going to demonstrate that it’s economically viable.”

    "Other competitors include an unpartnered CART program at MD Anderson Cancer Center and another from Kite Pharma, which has paired with NCI immunology pioneer Steven Rosenberg, and a third from biotech giant Celgene , which is working with tiny Bluebird Bio."

  • Reply to

    investors show NO love to tgtx

    by iluvcorruption Nov 2, 2014 12:11 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Nov 2, 2014 10:10 PM Flag

    OK, let's me ask your if the coming data proves TG-202 is the better PI13K delta inhibitor
    than INFI-145 and Idelalisib, what is TGTX worth?

  • if 101 and 202 PII data show good safety and efficacy data.
    I use these estimates: 101 and 202 may get of Imbruvica's
    patients and TGTX prices 101 and 202 half the cost of Imbruvica
    (may be too low, but be very conservative here). we know street
    estimate Imbruvica's peak sales of $6 Billion, and I get
    $6BX1/2x1/2=$1.5B peak sales of 101 and 202. Once the PII
    data proves safety and efficacy in blood cancer drugs, street
    will price in high chance PIII positive results and FDA approval,
    usually gives 1 time peak sales in weeks. We can see PCYC
    has market cap $3+ B(1 time X 1/2 X $6, PCYC owns 1/2 of Imbruvica)
    in July 2012, one month after strong PII data at ASCO. So my
    target is $1.5B market cap for TGTX in Dec or Jan if the data
    is strong at ASH, stock price $1.5B/38.5= $39 fair value, IMO.

  • Reply to

    GOOD NEWS COMING

    by korthh Oct 24, 2014 10:18 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Oct 24, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    One more trial of 202+Ibrutinib is filed with FDA, ready to go.

    This research study will be evaluating the safety and efficacy
    of a study drug called TGR-1202 in combination with a known
    drug ibrutinib, also known as Imbruvica, as a possible treatment
    for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma
    (CLL/SLL) or Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) that has come back or
    that has not responded to standard treatment.

  • Reply to

    GOOD NEWS COMING

    by korthh Oct 24, 2014 10:18 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Oct 24, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    Educated guess is the data should be strong, I take the
    cue from TGTX actions of taking 100% control of 102,
    FDA's OK for ORR end point of the PIII 101+Ibrutinib ,
    adding 101+102+Ibrutinib to the on going PII which is
    telling me Mono 102 safety and efficacy is good and TGTX
    wants to test if the triple combo can dramatically increase the
    CR rate and long term OS, IMO.

  • Reply to

    TGTX abstract timeline for ASH:

    by betonthenews Oct 17, 2014 1:13 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Oct 23, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    You may pay $1 or 2 more, but safer to buy if the abstract is positive. TGTX is
    good long term investment if TGTX can get both of the 101 and 102 approved,
    they will be part of the combo treatments in the $10B blood cancer market, 101
    and 102 combo may help cancer patients to live a long time,Like HIV patients
    do now with triple combo drugs, IMO.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Oct 22, 2014 11:28 PM Flag

    Here is some information:
    “When you project out from our phase II trials, in the first six months there wasn’t much difference,” Link told BioWorld Today. “At a year, there was about a 30 percent difference. By two years, there was a 60 percent difference. By three years, there was a 100 percent difference.” In short, the “pattern of survival” in immunotherapy shows much greater benefit as a trial progresses.
    Amin agreed Monday morning, writing that “the second interim analysis of the trial needs to observe a +30 percent improvement in [overall survival] for the trial to be stopped for efficacy, which we believe may be a high bar.” Nevertheless, he expects the final analysis, upon reaching 444 events, could report a hazard ratio of approximately 0.80, “sufficient to drive a positive outcome.”

    Now we know that the PII KM curves starts to separate at sixth month, to be conservative
    and realistic, Can you find out the P value if the PIII KM curves start to separate at 10th month
    and the 333th event at early Dec? My gut feeling is P value may be at 0.03 to 0.05 range,
    short of P value 0.019 to stop the trial.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Oct 22, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    A wild guess, JNJ may be interested in buying RGLS for few Billions like IDIX(bought by MRK for $3.7B)
    to make a combo to compete with GILD.
    --There were no drug-drug interactions from part III of the ongoing study in which RG-101 was combined with simeprevir (OLYSIO™), an approved oral DAA (protease inhibitor), and the combination had no effect on the pharmacokinetic profile of RG-101 or simeprevir (OLYSIO™).

  • Later break abstract submission: OCT 21 -28
    Presenting abstracts published online: NOV 6

  • Reply to

    ADD IT UP

    by rchites Oct 9, 2014 10:10 AM
    betonthenews betonthenews Oct 9, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    In this kind of market condition, I see NLNK test 15 by year end
    without any positive news, with the added pressure from year end
    tax loss selling, IMO.

  • Reply to

    news today or AM?

    by stockpush98 Oct 2, 2014 3:49 PM
    betonthenews betonthenews Oct 2, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    I hate it, the news may be leaked, today after close or before the
    open tomorrow, over all positive or subset IP positive, that is only
    outcome for today's action and options premium, IMO.

  • betonthenews betonthenews Sep 29, 2014 11:55 PM Flag

    Perfect match up to SRPT, about 1500 patient target and price of $300K/ patient/year,
    peak sales estimate $500M. But CPRX beats SRPT at manufacturing cost, Eteplirsen
    costs $100K per patient/year, IMO.

AEGR
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