SRPT's EOXN platform has $3 to $4B peak sales potential, even
buy in at 25 to 30 is at base level here, it is a sure 200% return if
Etep is approved early next year, and what chances of the 200%
gain is? I put it at 90%, if the 4th biopsy data confirms the previous data,
100% AA for 51 and only PII with 50 to 60 patients for 45 + 53 approval
in two to three years.
BB is good at valuing rare disease companies, if BB likes BMRN, it is no brainer
SRPT will out perform BMRN many times because BMRN is fully valued for many
years' growth now, BB is in the business making money, SRPT is the best R/R
rare disease biotach in the market, the logic is BB want to participate, IMO.
I feel very confident SRPT will trade between 35 to 40 by June 19
because SRPT's fair value is $1.5B now with the information at hand
so far, short squeeze and millions shares of June options in the money
will create nonstop buying pressure until market see the fair value
BB owns 11.66 million GEVA, 31% of GEVA which ALXN paid $8B
for one NDA filed rare disease drug + pipeline, I feel very sure BB
may already be buying SRPT, they like to take huge positions and
if they buy in SRPT, we may SRPT short squeezed to 45 to 55 in
after PCYC and GEVA buyout, BB may get $1.5+B next week from
PCYC buyout close today, they are the best and can see SRPT is
the best risk/reward in biotech now, I see they buy SRPT at
least 5 million share, IMO.
hold your shares and take profits at 3:30 if you want to, SRPT is long term
hold for $100+ in a year, there is no better risk /reward than SRPT, derisked
DMD platform has $4 billion sales potential, ALXN paid $b billion for GEVA
for much less.
When the buyers of 12-15 sell and take profits, the real sellers
are gone, we may see SRPT going up another $5 by end of the
day closing at $28, and $35 to $40 by June 19th.
I agree, I guess FDA wants to be politically correct and approve Drisa
first in Q4 few month ahead of Etep in Q1, but Etep should take 90% of
EXON 51 and 100% rest of EXONS. Now let's figure out how much SRPT
is worth, ALXN paid $8B for GEVA and ALXN says for the pipeline potential,
SPRT should be worth $1.5B by next week(share $30 to$ 40) and $3.5B in
Q1 2016 after approval, 3500/53(shares, 10M secondary at $35) = $66, IMO.
Wrong, 90% FDA says OK to file = SRPT worth of $1.5B right way, about $35 to $40.
This time is different, once the NDA is filed, FDA has no way out but AA approval, VRTX
ADcom shows FDA what to expect from DMD families, FDA knows filing = AA approval
and market knows that too, so the market cap may price in the outcome in days after
the results of the FDA meeting, IMO.
ZACKS is a joke: Earnings ESP for Gilead is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate estimate and
the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $2.78. $2.78 is what GILD may report Thursday,
but that beats consensus $2.32 by big margin! ZACKS is working for shorts by trying to lower the
expectations that $2.78 is consensus, not a huge beat.
The way I see it:
Here is what I speculate: The IS trial has 6 trial sites in UK and two in Glasgow, so
ESO 2015 committee may have a good idea how the results are and want ATHX
to present it, ESCO 2015 committee breaks the later-abstract rules to allow
ATHX to present the data under the condition no PR is issued before the presentation
because ATHX can not meet the later-break deadline(open Feb12, close Mar 3).
Agree, but ATHX PII trial cohost1 6:2 and cohost2 6:2, I think DMC can guess with
confidence how Multistem performed with those 12 compare to 4 patients in the control
arm, nothing is for sure until the final data reveals, IMO.
No, the PR is for the topline results without data, like primary end point
is or is not statistically significant, tonight or tomorrow morning, IMO.
It is not over yet, if the results are SS, ATHX may issue a PR
Thursday or Friday to just say the trial has met the primary end
point and details to be presented on April 19th, you never know.
If my best case happens(P =0.01 or better), it means the results is highly
SS, Japan AA is possible if ATHX apply, FDA's BTD is a sure thing, $20 is
the minimum, only $1.6B market cap for a drug has billions peak sales potential
and 80% PIII success. ICPT NASH trial is about to start PIII and is worth 6B.
If the primary P value is less than 0.01 or better, we may see a ICPT kind of reaction,
Can we trust ATHX CEO's comments about the first two group's results translate into
the big group 3?
The IMPRESS SPA analysis plan is Log-rank analysis, expressed in Reduction of risk
in HR, they are the same thing.