"...Producers have turned to overseas customers to take up the slack. Propane can be shipped abroad, unlike most types of U.S. crude oil, and exports have jumped in the past year. In October, propane and propylene exports climbed above 400,000 barrels a day for the first time and have held above that level in five of the nine months since, according to EIA data going back to 1973. The EIA doesn’t separate its data for propane from propylene.
EXPORTS WILL BECOME THE LARGEST SOURCE of demand for U.S. propane by next year, according to consulting firm Bentek Energy, a unit of McGraw Hill Financial Inc. “We’re going to be exporting a lot more propane,” from about 25 cargoes a month currently to about 40 cargoes a month next year, says John Dwan, partner at Houston brokerage Ion Energy Group, which is owned by OTC Global Holdings.
Even so, analysts say, the export market won’t be enough to absorb the growing supplies. U.S. propane output has soared in recent years due to new technologies that enable producers to access supplies trapped in shale-oil fields. Production reached a record high of more than 1.6 million barrels a day in the week ended on Sept. 19.
Bentek expects propane prices to hold below $1.50 a gallon through 2020, as output nears 1.8 million barrels a day..."
"Draghi stops dragging his heels and starts QE"
Nige, my read of the situation is that it is the Germans that are stopping Mario from pursuing more aggressive QE. If not for strong hawkish (inflation phobic) Germans,, he would have already done US-style QE and bought sovereign debt. You are closer to the situation - is this your view? Or do you think Mario is the problem or perhaps he is legally blocked from US-style QE (buying sovereign debt). TIA
08:53 AM EDT, 10/02/2014 (MT Newswires) -- StealthGas(GASS) received a buy investment rating Thursday from Canaccord Genuity, which initiated coverage of the owner of a fleet of liquefied petroleum gas carriers with a $15 price target, saying it is "flying above the radar."
The price target implies expected upside of 67% to the stock's Wednesday closing price of $8.98.
GASS was inactive in recent pre-market trading. It has a 52-week range of $8.88 to $13.00.
"If you can raise the cash and survive, I will be happy with my shares. Even then, you will have to raise again soon after."
Odds are quite good they'll raise sufficient cash. And I agree, at some point they'll very likely need more. However, recent restructuring has significantly reduced the burn rate. A partnership or other deal as Franshei suggests could further reduce burn while providing cash. This means it will be quite some time before they need to raise cash again, and in the mean time, they will make progress with BARDA, CCTRN, Japan, Lorem, and other initiatives. If any of these are successful, the stock should rise and reduce the dilutive effect of any future offering down the road.
"if the Company raises at least $13.0 million (the “Transactional Proceeds”) on or before October 31, 2014"
We knew they needed cash and this indicates they are getting close to a deal. The only way they raise cash via sub-debt is if they do an equity or partnership deal. The stock should bounce on a partnership and may bounce on an equity deal since the stock has already discounted a lot of dilution. If any deal gets done it should pretty much mark the bottom on the news or after tax-loss selling is done.
"Unfortunately, the entanglement with OCN is a little more than I suspected."
For more information relating to OCN, see today's 8-K filing by HLSS which includes its latest investor presentation slides.
"they just raised mortgage rates to 4.24%"
Higher mortgage rates mean lower refinancing rates which is good for HLSS.
"Applications to refinance mortgages decreased 11 percent from the previous week, seasonally adjusted, to the lowest level since November 2008."
Lower refinancing and foreclosure rates are good for HLSS...
The very helpful session just ended. Standing room only as investors packed the room to hear about XRX. If you missed it the fireside chat style interview is well worth a listen.
Morgan Stanley analysts reiterated their Outperform rating on Xerox Corp. (XRX) Thursday, along with a $15 price target. But that seems to have been enough to lift Xerox shares to a new multiyear high before the close on Thursday, and again after the opening bell on Friday.
The reiteration was a vote of confidence in company leadership, as signaled in this comment from Morgan Stanley:
We left with greater confidence that management clearly recognizes where XRX had issues in the past and understands how they can leverage their track records of success to drive consistent results going forward.
You're right, this is not a short term trade. The bet for shareholders is that results greatly improve as new builds are delivered and as higher LPG output drives demand and rates for transportation.
Management likes to highlight the fact that based on some metrics, GASS trades at a discount to its peers. One reason is that in many ways it's operating performance has not been as good as those peers. Another is that GASS does not pay dividend like many of its peers which hurts it in a world reaching for yield. Of course, we know they are sacrificing short term to grow via acquisitions financed by equity dilution and more debt. Over the next few years we'll see how this works out.
Management said there will be no more equity dilution (for now) and that the board may consider a dividend in January if they remain on plan. A dividend plus improved operating visibility should help this stock close some of the gap with its peers in the year ahead. I think the stock is a decent value here under $10 and if it gets hit by year-end tax-loss selling it could soon become a very good value.
"how did the one holder decline on the SAME day that the new deal was announced if there were no earlier discussions"
JD, here's a likely timeline:
The CYTX board discussed and approved the extension of warrants. Warrant holders were notified of this decision. One of the holders declined this generous offer, the rest accepted the gift. With the deal done, the announcement was then made public.
"the deal was apparently negotiated"
JD, I very much doubt there were any negotiations. The warrants were going to expire and the holders were in no position to negotiate anything. The company made an offer to extend the warrants that one holder declined. CYTX did not have to do this and instead effectively gave the warrant holders new options like they often give themselves.
The fact that one set of warrants is publically traded and another is not does not determine whether the firm will offer to extend or exchange expiring warrants. It can and has been done in either case by firms in the past.
JD, though I'm not counting on or predicting an extension, this is the far better precedent:
"Effective May 13, 2014, Cytori Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and 47 holders of warrants dated May 14, 2009 (the “ Warrants ”) to purchase a total of 3,156,238 shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.001 par value per share (the “ Common Stock ”), issued in a private offering in 2009 agreed to extend the expiration date of the Warrants from May 14, 2014 to May 14, 2015 and increase the exercise price of the Warrants from $2.62 per share to $3.50 per share pursuant to an Amendment to Warrant to Purchase Common Stock (the “ Amendment ”), a form of which is filed as Exhibit 4.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. To the extent the Amendments constitute an issuance of securities, the deemed exchange of the original warrants for warrants with the modified terms for no additional consideration and without paying remuneration for soliciting such exchange was exempt under Section 3(a)(9) of the Securities Act.
One holder of Warrants did not agree to the Amendment and their Warrants, covering 38,500 shares of Common Stock, expired unexercised on May 14, 2014 in accordance with the originals terms of the Warrants."
"I cannot see the logic of selectively extending the May warrants and ignoring the Sept. warrants."
True JD, but one reason not to extend warrants is that it gives away value. As the writer of the options, CYTX is the winner when warrants expire worthless. Furthermore, why extend any warrants when they may use them as a sweetener when they raise capital? Like money, options don't grow on trees and shouldn't be given away. That goes to warrant holders as well as underperforming management and board members.
"As investors poured into the bond market and interest rates fell, mortgage rates followed suit. Total mortgage application volume increased 1.4 percent on-week last week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Refinance applications were behind the surge, rising 3 percent on-week, on a seasonally adjusted basis. They are still off 31 percent from a year ago, despite the fact that rates are lower today than they were a year ago.
"Conventional refinance applications increased last week as mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in over a month. However, the refinance index remains within the narrow range we have been in over the past year, as most borrowers have little incentive to refinance at this level of rates," said Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the MBA."
Though it may take some time, I expect that OCN's regulatory problems will eventually be worked out. Regardless, HLSS will likely purchase some assets from others in addition to OCN. But the key to HLSS is the value of its cash flow, which is driven by prepayments. As long as refinancings cooperate, HLSS will be fine.
"GASS just can't get traction...."
It's all about the next few years as new build deliveries add to top and bottom line growth. This may explain why the stock isn't down more on this news. It'll be interesting to hear why they missed Q2 expectations. Hopefully the analysts ask plenty of tough questions on the call. While it is frustrating, I think patience will pay off as management's big bet on growth pays off in the next few years. For those that think it'll be a winning bet, the stock is cheap under $10.
"several big investment houses stating it is time to be rotating into EU equities"
Smalls, I've been thinking along the same lines. However, there is also a view that EU is becoming the next Japan with chronic no growth and deflation risk. QE would help and what Super Mario does will no doubt affect the outcome.
Now if only the inflation hawks in Germany would cooperate, the ECB would be a monetary gusher. The German stock market has been a serious laggard this year, so EWG could be a good way to go if the Germans finally agree to let the ECB implement more aggressive monetary policies. Of course, Germany is most exposed to what's going on with Russia. But if war doesn't break out in Ukraine and some kind of political solution is worked out, Germany has the most to gain. I'm looking at EWG calls as a way to play this positive outcome (ECB QE & Russian tensions easing). But to be clear, I am certainly not saying I think I know what the Germans or especially Putin is going to do!
Have a good weekend, BKB
"Last week, total application volume fell 2.7 percent from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to refinance were down 4 percent. They had risen slightly in previous weeks despite basically stagnant rates—but possibly on a slight easing of some underwriting. Refinance volume is down nearly 28 percent from a year ago."
Needless to say, lower prepayments are good for HLSS. If prepayments continue to cooperate, Unless management lowers the targeted payout ratio, HLSS should boost the dividend again in the not too distant future.
My guess is that before they could wrap up financing to handle all the new acquisitions, the banks wanted them to bump up equity. Management is betting big on growth - the next several years may be either a boom or bust for GASS.