Morgan Stanley analysts reiterated their Outperform rating on Xerox Corp. (XRX) Thursday, along with a $15 price target. But that seems to have been enough to lift Xerox shares to a new multiyear high before the close on Thursday, and again after the opening bell on Friday.
The reiteration was a vote of confidence in company leadership, as signaled in this comment from Morgan Stanley:
We left with greater confidence that management clearly recognizes where XRX had issues in the past and understands how they can leverage their track records of success to drive consistent results going forward.
You're right, this is not a short term trade. The bet for shareholders is that results greatly improve as new builds are delivered and as higher LPG output drives demand and rates for transportation.
Management likes to highlight the fact that based on some metrics, GASS trades at a discount to its peers. One reason is that in many ways it's operating performance has not been as good as those peers. Another is that GASS does not pay dividend like many of its peers which hurts it in a world reaching for yield. Of course, we know they are sacrificing short term to grow via acquisitions financed by equity dilution and more debt. Over the next few years we'll see how this works out.
Management said there will be no more equity dilution (for now) and that the board may consider a dividend in January if they remain on plan. A dividend plus improved operating visibility should help this stock close some of the gap with its peers in the year ahead. I think the stock is a decent value here under $10 and if it gets hit by year-end tax-loss selling it could soon become a very good value.
"how did the one holder decline on the SAME day that the new deal was announced if there were no earlier discussions"
JD, here's a likely timeline:
The CYTX board discussed and approved the extension of warrants. Warrant holders were notified of this decision. One of the holders declined this generous offer, the rest accepted the gift. With the deal done, the announcement was then made public.
"the deal was apparently negotiated"
JD, I very much doubt there were any negotiations. The warrants were going to expire and the holders were in no position to negotiate anything. The company made an offer to extend the warrants that one holder declined. CYTX did not have to do this and instead effectively gave the warrant holders new options like they often give themselves.
The fact that one set of warrants is publically traded and another is not does not determine whether the firm will offer to extend or exchange expiring warrants. It can and has been done in either case by firms in the past.
JD, though I'm not counting on or predicting an extension, this is the far better precedent:
"Effective May 13, 2014, Cytori Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and 47 holders of warrants dated May 14, 2009 (the “ Warrants ”) to purchase a total of 3,156,238 shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.001 par value per share (the “ Common Stock ”), issued in a private offering in 2009 agreed to extend the expiration date of the Warrants from May 14, 2014 to May 14, 2015 and increase the exercise price of the Warrants from $2.62 per share to $3.50 per share pursuant to an Amendment to Warrant to Purchase Common Stock (the “ Amendment ”), a form of which is filed as Exhibit 4.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. To the extent the Amendments constitute an issuance of securities, the deemed exchange of the original warrants for warrants with the modified terms for no additional consideration and without paying remuneration for soliciting such exchange was exempt under Section 3(a)(9) of the Securities Act.
One holder of Warrants did not agree to the Amendment and their Warrants, covering 38,500 shares of Common Stock, expired unexercised on May 14, 2014 in accordance with the originals terms of the Warrants."
"I cannot see the logic of selectively extending the May warrants and ignoring the Sept. warrants."
True JD, but one reason not to extend warrants is that it gives away value. As the writer of the options, CYTX is the winner when warrants expire worthless. Furthermore, why extend any warrants when they may use them as a sweetener when they raise capital? Like money, options don't grow on trees and shouldn't be given away. That goes to warrant holders as well as underperforming management and board members.
"As investors poured into the bond market and interest rates fell, mortgage rates followed suit. Total mortgage application volume increased 1.4 percent on-week last week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Refinance applications were behind the surge, rising 3 percent on-week, on a seasonally adjusted basis. They are still off 31 percent from a year ago, despite the fact that rates are lower today than they were a year ago.
"Conventional refinance applications increased last week as mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in over a month. However, the refinance index remains within the narrow range we have been in over the past year, as most borrowers have little incentive to refinance at this level of rates," said Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the MBA."
Though it may take some time, I expect that OCN's regulatory problems will eventually be worked out. Regardless, HLSS will likely purchase some assets from others in addition to OCN. But the key to HLSS is the value of its cash flow, which is driven by prepayments. As long as refinancings cooperate, HLSS will be fine.
"GASS just can't get traction...."
It's all about the next few years as new build deliveries add to top and bottom line growth. This may explain why the stock isn't down more on this news. It'll be interesting to hear why they missed Q2 expectations. Hopefully the analysts ask plenty of tough questions on the call. While it is frustrating, I think patience will pay off as management's big bet on growth pays off in the next few years. For those that think it'll be a winning bet, the stock is cheap under $10.
"several big investment houses stating it is time to be rotating into EU equities"
Smalls, I've been thinking along the same lines. However, there is also a view that EU is becoming the next Japan with chronic no growth and deflation risk. QE would help and what Super Mario does will no doubt affect the outcome.
Now if only the inflation hawks in Germany would cooperate, the ECB would be a monetary gusher. The German stock market has been a serious laggard this year, so EWG could be a good way to go if the Germans finally agree to let the ECB implement more aggressive monetary policies. Of course, Germany is most exposed to what's going on with Russia. But if war doesn't break out in Ukraine and some kind of political solution is worked out, Germany has the most to gain. I'm looking at EWG calls as a way to play this positive outcome (ECB QE & Russian tensions easing). But to be clear, I am certainly not saying I think I know what the Germans or especially Putin is going to do!
Have a good weekend, BKB
"Last week, total application volume fell 2.7 percent from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to refinance were down 4 percent. They had risen slightly in previous weeks despite basically stagnant rates—but possibly on a slight easing of some underwriting. Refinance volume is down nearly 28 percent from a year ago."
Needless to say, lower prepayments are good for HLSS. If prepayments continue to cooperate, Unless management lowers the targeted payout ratio, HLSS should boost the dividend again in the not too distant future.
My guess is that before they could wrap up financing to handle all the new acquisitions, the banks wanted them to bump up equity. Management is betting big on growth - the next several years may be either a boom or bust for GASS.
"Someone at Yahoo really doesn't like me posting negative things"
LOL Smalls, you must be causing trouble on another board since it appears some have followed you all the way over here to give you "thumbs down" - some angry people have a lot of time on their hands!
"If they can leverage that copper network into a massive fiber hybrid network then it has massive value."
Smalls, Creating value via a REIT deal would reduce their debt and increase cash flow which would help finance a significant capital intensive project as you suggest. What was a no growth "cash substitute" investment has turned into a big winner with some upside from value creation and growth. This is a case where being lucky was better than being smart!
"divvy will keep on flowing"
If prepayments continue to cooperate, then the dividend should be raised in the not too distant future. On the last call, management affirmed their payout ratio target. That they are not at this level implies we could see a dividend boost. Based on comments, it appears they are waiting for prepayments to stay lower than expected for a while longer before they favorably change their base case assumptions which would facilitate a dividend hike.
"Thinking Frontier is pretty low market cap but holds an intriguing copper position which could be leveraged immensely using G.fast coming to market."
Smalls, But first, they may follow WIN and spin off assets into a REIT! IRS private letter ruling gave them the green light today so FTR, T & VZ are also higher on this possibility. Who would have guessed that the old shrinking parts of these businesses held considerable value beyond the declining cash flow. I bought FTR at $3.90 a few years back so it's about a double including dividends. What was supposed to be a no growth yield play turned into a pretty big win!
JD, You know someone thinks the warrants will be extended (if necessary) with the listed September $2.50 calls offered at 25 cents and CYTXW 31 cents bid. Let's hope you're right that it won't be necessary...
I also like looking at FCF yield. However, using FCF can be tricky based on variable capital expenditures over time and when comparing firms or industries. Depending on the situation, sometimes investors reward more for capital investments and other times they do not.
As you point out, using PE also has its weaknesses, but earnings and its growth are key metrics for investors. I guess the bottom line is that it makes sense to consider more than one value metric while keeping the pros and cons of each in mind.
* Xerox : BMO raises target price to $15 from $14; rating market perform
* Xerox : JP Morgan raises to neutral from underweight; price target to $14 from $13
* Xerox : Susquehanna raises target price to $16.50 from $14; rating positive