LOL - Given your never ending stream of negativism, pot calling the kettle black???
"MR. LIM can't be too happy as he paid $3 but he can do what he wants with his shares and probably responsible personally for the increase in short position."
I think Lim is probably happy he bought his big position in CYTX at $3 and is unconcerned about its short term volatility. It would have been very difficult to buy this size position in the open market. He wants both his Lorem and CYTX investments to do well, and the outcomes are obviously related. Providing capital to CYTX helps it and Lorem and he'll benefit from both doing well.
Until we see a filing with the SEC we can be confident that Lim has not sold or sold short any shares. Given his investments in CYTX and Lorem, the guy is obvious very bullish so why would he short the stock? And if he elects to join the board of CYTX we can be assured he will never short the stock.
"soon to be followed by Paulson and Einhorn"
As I recall, we learned Einhorn sold out when the last batch of quarterly institutional filings was reported.
"If you had any exp with proxies you would know that is a High level of discontent."
I don't know your what your experience with proxies is but I have worked on quite a few SEC filings. I agree that the last CYTX shareholder vote demonstrated a greater than average "level of discontent." However, my reply was in response the following view, which is not supported by the aforementioned proxy vote:
"I'm willing to bet that if there was a way to poll the stock holders the number for dismissal would be overwhelming."
"So are you saying we should we go to war with Russia over this?"
WST, This looks like an opinion about the president's foreign policy performance and is not advocating war. The president will issue no "red line" with Russia, especially with Putin in command!
Meanwhile, back on topic, thanks for posting about the knee arthritis treatment study. This is just the latest possibly huge opportunity for CYTX. There are a lot of investigator studies ongoing and eventually patients, investors, the press, etc. will hear about the ones where ADRCs are successfully used.
It appears that CYTX's uptrend off the lows is still intact. The series of higher lows is encouraging: $2.00 on 11/01/13, $2.20 on 12/17-18/13, $2.44 on 02/05/14 and $2.71 on 03/13-14/14. To avoid breaking this rising trend line, CYTX will have to rally from here...
"I'm willing to bet that if there was a way to poll the stock holders the number for dismissal would be overwhelming."
You would lose the bet based on the outcome of the most recent election of directors by shareholders. For example, Christopher J. Calhoun received 11,784,224 "votes for" versus 3,700,977 votes to "withhold authority." Looks like the average CYTX shareholder supports management and the board versus the handful of vociferous disgruntled bashers we see here!
"Thirteen patients have been treated thus far, full enrollment is expected this year and data is being evaluated on a rolling basis."
One encouraging takeaway from this news is that CYTX has evaluated the first 10 patients and based upon these outcomes, they have elected to "expand RECOVER":
"The first ten patients will be given one of two doses of Cytori Cell Therapy in an open-label manner, with the first five patients receiving the lower dose and the second five patients receiving the higher dose. Once the safety and feasibility of administering Cytori Cell Therapy has been confirmed in the first ten patients (Part A), Cytori has the option to expand RECOVER to include an additional 60-patients in the multi-center, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase of the trial (Part B)."
"I still like the more strict pathway for a pivitol even though it may cost more and take longer..."
Hedge, I see your point on this but it also seems reasonable for gravely ill patients with few or no alternatives to use some kind of quality of life metric as the primary endpoint, especially when paired with survival or hospital re-admission as secondary endpoints. A shorter and cheaper pivotal trial will benefit everyone. As long as treatment is safe, the goal should be to offer gravely ill patients another treatment option that improves their quality of life and perhaps saves the healthcare system some money.
Thanks for the reply and I agree with your view. I think the stock is now timely, but of course there are risks and there is much to accomplish. With so many potentially positive catalysts, the year ahead could be very good for the company and its shareholders.
As I recall, your estimate of $10K per procedure for consumables is correct. I also think Okyanos has sufficient budget and has had a lot of time to prepare and promote its services to hit the ground running and will quickly ramp up business. The doctor in the Philippines no doubt told you that he sees many patients per year that could benefit from cardiac stem cell treatment. I don't know how many procedures will be done by Okyanos, but they must expect a substantial amount of business given the investment. Even if things start slowly, there could be some pretty exciting patient testimonials flowing out of Okyanos or the Philippines prior to ATHENA results. That would be good marketing material for these commercial clinics and could help boost the stock.
"Okyanos is going to make a big difference for CYTX"
JD, If this news helped boost the stock today, then it'll be interesting to see how it responds to possible positive news from BARDA. updates from Lorem, etc.
It's interesting that after raising $8.9 million recently, Okyanos’ total funding is now $14.2 million. That's a nice chunk of change to start a medical practice using cardiac stem cell therapy. K.T. Lim has put a good chunk of change into CYTX and who knows how much will be invested in Lorem. I think it's safe to assume important regulatory changes will bring significantly more activity in Japan, and hopefully in China too.
While many are very frustrated by years of waiting for meaningful commercial progress and suffering investment losses, it appears that the commercial outlook for CYTX is finally looking good and timely, with several materially positive catalysts possible in the not too distant future.
"doesn't matter whether Colao initiates or not"
My point relating to timing was that for now, it does matter:
"AT&T told U.K. takeover authorities in January that it didn’t intend to bid for Vodafone, before Vodafone completed its Verizon transaction. Under U.K. takeover rules, AT&T can’t approach Vodafone until the summer. The companies can, however, hold talks sooner if Vodafone initiates them."
Smalls, while you have been right on with valuation and have done fine trading, you have been consistently wrong on the timing on both the VZW and now VOD stub deals. Notwithstanding your reasonable rationale to the contrary, these deals have taken far longer to happen than your expectations. While important, T is not going to rush into anything because of possible currency or interest rate risks. No one's perfect, and we've made great returns from VOD. If T steps up to buy VOD later this year, it'll be icing on the cake! BKB
“We are focused on our own strategy and our own story”
Hi Nigeco - the above quote does not support the notion that VOD will initiate talks with T. To get a better price, it's probably better to let the buyer come to you rather than put yourself up for sale. I continue to expect the buyer to take action this summer or fall. This waiting game could be a replay of the long hot summer waiting for the VZW deal.
"Son definitely has the fortitude for such a deal but will he set his crosshairs on VOD?"
If U.S. regulators stop a S/TMUS deal, the odds go way up that he'll take a good hard look at VOD and the possibly joining forces with T on a deal.
You may be right, formal approval and initiation of next phase of the BARDA contract may come later this year. However, we should learn by mid-year whether the "principle objectives" of the initial phase were accepted, and if so, then we can reasonably infer with confidence that the "next steps" will include moving on to the next contract phases. Investors will discount this good news in advance of the formal award of the additional phases of the contract:
"Cytori submitted a series of reports to BARDA, which it believes demonstrate that the Company has achieved the three principal objectives of the base contract that may qualify Cytori to receive additional phases of the master contract worth up to $101 million for continued product development and clinical trials. The Company expects to obtain a decision from BARDA on the acceptance of these objectives and next steps in the first half of 2014."
"what cytx has is patents for procedures...that is more valuable than the machines, which are similar to cotton candy machines..."
I think it's better to view the machines as the razor and disposables as the blades. The more razors out there, the more higher margin blades one can expect to sell. Good clinical and investigator results and favorable regulatory treatment (e.g., BARDA, Japan, China) will facilitate the placement of razors and the use of blades.
Looks like the buyers are getting more aggressive today which means the brief sell on the news puking may be over. This continues the recent trend of ongoing accumulation and may successfully defend the technical uptrend support. Interesting that the warrants are bid and traded higher than the Sep $2.50 call options are offered. Speculators should buy the options for 80 cents rather than paying more for the warrants.
"I am hoping there will be support in the $2.65 area perserving the uptrend..."
I agree. CYTX bottom at $2.00 (11/01/13) was followed by a higher lows at $2.20 (12/17/13) and $2.44 (02/05/14). Your $2.65 looks to be support for this trend line so let's hope it holds. My guess is it will hold if tested as there should be buyers willing to take shares at a 11.7% discount to Lorem ahead of what could be decent news ahead.
Regarding CYTX's need to raise more cash, I agree that they will do so later this year. While JD correctly points out that warrant exercises and BARDA could get them to the end of the year when they hope to be at cash flow breakeven, cash reserves would probably be too low so they should refill the till before then. This will probably be true even if Chinese regulatory approval comes sooner rather than later and triggers Lorem orders. But the key is that if BARDA moves forward, Chinese approval happens, orders from Japan pick up in anticipation regulatory changes, ATHENA enrollment is completed and ATHENA II enrollment goes well, then the stock should be much higher which implies a much lower cost of equity capital and acceptable shareholder dilution. What we want to see is good operating performance so that the next secondary is done at a much higher stock price.
Still, AT&T isn't wrong in pointing out that things have changed since it first expressed interest in Europe, most significantly the gap between its valuation and Vodafone's. While AT&T's stock once traded at a premium to Vodafone, excluding Verizon Wireless, it now trades at a discount: 5.6 times 2014 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, against 6.7 times for Vodafone. For AT&T, that makes it even less appealing to do a deal that already came with few apparent synergies and questionable growth opportunities.
And it has other options. A U.S.-focused AT&T might be better served, for example, by buying Dish Network. DISH -0.61% AT&T would likely need to pay a significant premium to get Dish's chairman, Charlie Ergen, to cede control. But buying Dish would give AT&T access to the wireless spectrum that the satellite-TV provider has amassed. This would help AT&T defend its existing wireless business and keep that spectrum out of competitors' hands.
Investors shouldn't stop reading between AT&T's lines. But they may be better off if its recent comments aren't bluster, just straight talking.
AT&T Should Phone Home
The Company's Pessimistic Signals About a Deal With Vodafone May Be Just Tactical, but Investors Could Do Without That Deal
AT&T T +0.05% seems uneasy about springing for that long-distance call to Europe. And that could be a good thing for its shareholders.
Chief Financial Officer John Stephens said Wednesday that AT&T's "window of opportunity" for buying a European asset may be closing. His comments echoed Chief Executive Randall Stephenson's last week.
Mr. Stephens said AT&T still sees opportunity in Europe, but that the success of its own investment plan and new competitive threats such as a potentially combined Comcast-Time Warner Cable had put its focus "clearly" on the U.S.
AT&T may simply be trying to drive down the price of its rumored target, Vodafone. VOD.LN -1.33% The latter's shares have fallen nearly 8% in the past week. While it made sense for AT&T to broadcast its intentions in Europe while trying to lobby regulators there, it makes less sense now. Verizon Communications's VZ -0.20% deal to buy the rest of Verizon Wireless from Vodafone has closed, clearing the way for AT&T.
AT&T is limited for the next few months to doing a deal backed by Vodafone's board because of U.K. takeover rules. Its recent comments may also have been aimed at pressing Vodafone to initiate deal talks.
Mr. Stephens cited progress in Europe toward rolling out LTE networks—a shift AT&T had hoped to benefit from—as an opportunity that might be slipping away. Vodafone recently launched its own investment program. But spending on that is just beginning, suggesting there may still be time for AT&T to capitalize on it.