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Agenus Inc. Message Board

bettydavisstar 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 20, 2015 3:05 PM Member since: Apr 21, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Earnings and CC Feb 26th

    by gettinricher Feb 20, 2015 10:32 AM
    bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Feb 20, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    No offense but honestly your post is the most useless and pointless bit of nonsense I have seen on a message board in a very long time, other than the post I am typing right now just in responding to your own nonsense. I was asking others their thoughts on what their opinions were in regards to what they would desire management to talk about mostly on the upcoming conference call and all you could think of is how to bash me personally. What a joke you are, totally worthless. You are now 'ignored', 'you ARE the weakest link, goodbye.' *click*

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings and CC Feb 26th

    by gettinricher Feb 20, 2015 10:32 AM
    bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Feb 20, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    Could it being sooner than what was expected (March 2nd) have any meaning? Or just a normal scheduling thing? Could this be a rare positive quarterly EPS?! They have been making their quarterly costs move down consistently over time. On the balance sheet the company appears to be in its most solid financial state it has ever found itself to be in. Also in regards to the science, the possibilities surrounding the CPM's and collaborations seem endless. Hopefully Stein will have a lot to say on this front.
    Frankly, this time around I want to hear less about all of the financial accountings and more about the SCIENCE and what progress and projects are currently underway to get us an even greater competitive advantage and what specifically can be a real game changer for the company to pull us into profitability. It's time for Garo and Stein to take this little bio tech to the next level. Years of failures and missteps and piddling around. Shareholders need major bold moves right now. Now is the time. This is what I personally want to hear.
    Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    read the 10k neelson01

    by parsa_da_man Feb 20, 2015 11:06 AM
    bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Feb 20, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    It seems to me the point to this whole thread is that any bean count can read a filing and not assume anything and only take each letter and word of the filing as fact entirely constraining the future potential earnings of the company and then project the lowest base annual revenues from a single drug which happens to have an industry groundbreaking efficacy of 97.3% and then do the strict math of 1% of those big pharma revenues and prescribe Agenus that valuation on the exact date when said royalties would begin to be awarded. However any bean count is not a trader or investor, that is not how the market works. In order to find market opportunity, one must be willing to see potential and take RISK in order to achieve gains based off of conjectures, guesswork and predictions of the future which are always entirely uncertain and RISKY. Two primary factors completely overwhelming the importance of any of this are the quarterly costs Agenus will eventually have by then and what P/E ratio the market will be giving to AGEN by then. The P/E ratio by itself alone is the biggest uncertain question mark to future valuation, not a couple percentage points of a royalty rate we do not yet know exactly. At this point in the stock story of AGEN, the real discussion should probably be surrounding ideas and conceptions of the market for each potential drug along with the probability of FDA approval for each along with the competitive value of the CPM's as they begin to be combined into new formulations and molecules which could drive M&A and/or asset purchases in the future, along with the bio tech innovation in the immuno-oncology space as a whole. We can begin to do bean counting in the years to come once Agenus is already profitable and quarter on quarter growth has slowed to become so stable that future costs can be nailed down as well as diminished uncertainty surrounding all the 20 drugs in the pipeline for which a single one could change the entire financial landscape.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Feb 20, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    You do understand that stocks are priced for the next 12 months of potential earnings, right? Often, especially for highly speculative small cap stocks of companies not yet profitable, even greater than the next 12 months of potential earnings are considered when finding fair market price in the current price level of the stock. All of this while there is no telling over the next 12 to 24 months when or if several milestones could be attained by Agenus which has the potential to grant Agenus with payouts to the tune of $100M or more. Just don't expect the market to only begin to price in royalties made on the date of the first big royalty check in 2016, who knows maybe even in 2015! Oops! Did I just say that? I guess I'm 'pumpin' it up , ehh?!!! Am I taking 'advantage' of certain facts not being disclosed yet? Are those down playing the potential earnings Agenus has over the next year or two taking 'advantage' of the same uncertainties? Hmmm....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Feb 20, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    Yep, that's it, you got it, thanks.
    The point is that daniellaidman's assumption is not necessarily correct so long as the future annual revs from big pharma are uncertain. If we know the rev number X then of course its the case that the lower the royalty rate the lower the revenues to AGEN, but the point is that we do not know X! So while we do not know X, the royalty rate is of lower significance than the importance of X! Even if we assume royalty rate is 1% then its still GREAT for AGEN IF X turns out to be over a billion, considering we have nothing but costs every quarter and very miniscule royalties so not yet in profitable territory which would all change once an X came around which gave us the chance to be profitable. I don't think making this point is at all 'pumpin', its merely expressing an opinion that with big X figures in the future the exact royalty rate does not matter as much as one would think. Still wondering why there are so many posters here with no opinions of the company or stock for themselves and all they have to offer is bad mouthing other posters and calling them pumpers and such. Sad, get a life losers. Oh and by the way, I'll make my posts as LONG as I wish, you don't like it, quit reading 'em. Tsk

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Feb 20, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    1%, 2% or 7%, in my opinion, the actual percentage rate of the royalty does not matter as much as the annualized revenues that the commercialized drug by big pharma (likely GSK) pulls in. 7% of $100M is $7M but 1% of $1B is $10M and so the latter is greater than the former in this case yet the percentage of the latter is lesser. If Shingles is the drug we are discussing from which to attain royalties, in the words of Garo, it could be a 'Blockbuster' drug, as in a third of the global population effected. I have no idea where that other analyst only got a potential market for Shingles of merely $750M, that is a joke. At 97%+ efficacy, this would effectively be a cure! A cure for nearly a third of the global population sounds more like a real 'Blockbuster' drug, likely pulling in multiple billions per year, not just a few hundred million dollars annually. So even if AGEN only ever gets 1% royalty from it, that's FINE, it really only matters if and when the drug is approved so that GSK can move forward with commercialization. And so the real point here is how likely does the market think that this drug will get FDA approval given it has over 97% efficacy which is unheard of in the world of pharma!!
    Another thing folks may be forgetting is that based on the ramp up in sales of not just this drug but others on a global scale, especially considering GSK commercial industry, with AGEN O/S being so small the EPS will likely have a huge growth rate quarter on quarter which could lead to a P/E ratio of many many times earnings, more than what most here are assuming (P/E of 20, 25, 30, 40, etc); those P/E's are what is given to large companies already have grown to size and not going to grow much more, typically the small caps grow exponentially in their first decade or few years worth of growth so P/E's of 100, 200, etc are more typical. So the share price could wind up being much much higher than anyone thinks once substantial royalties are flowing in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Jan 28, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    WOW! Agenus could very soon or already be on the menu for getting eaten by a biggie like Pfizer, Novartis, GSK, Roche, Merck, etc etc. I did not realize how interconnected the collaboration is among all these giants in the immuno oncology space. It's like looking behind the curtain! This is crazy!
    With Incyte owning the largest stake in the company and executive management shifting so much over the last few years, along with heavy investments by GSK and Merck into Agenus, it could very well be that Mercks plan is to have Incyte buy Agenus and then takeover Incyte themselves, while GSK could be gearing up to offer Agenus to execute an asset purchase of QS-21. Pfizer is in the mix as well but it seems they could be more just allowing their collaborations with Merck to bring them some indirect benefit in immuno oncology via Mercks soon to be acquisitions in the space. It would be crazy for GSK to just sit back and allow Merck to buy up QS-21 along with a full takeover of Agenus (via Incyte) because the asset purchase would likely only cost them a few hundred million which could very easily still be a fraction of what Agenus could wind up with from QS-21 royalties over a ten year period. This year should be very interesting to watch M&A in this sector, Agenus looks ripe for a takeover right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rumors, Roche interest in Agenus Inc.

    by swissquotee Jan 28, 2015 7:25 AM
    bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Jan 28, 2015 7:46 PM Flag

    Wow, that is veerrryyyyy interesting!
    So many bio tech deals, partnerships and takeovers happening in the sector lately it's actually surprising that this gem has not been bought out yet by a biggie. It could happen on any given day though with all the great things coming from this company lately.
    Shorts must not be getting much sleep. We have already seen what the stock can do, it can gap way up on the open multiple days in a row on partnerships and potentially great things, imagine what it would do on a news of a tender offer! My thinking is that just like HGS* , GSK would offer about $11 but then Roche or some other biggie would come in and bid higher and a bidding war could break out taking the stock up past $20 quite easily. This little gem of a company may very well have the only real science which effectively means a 'cure' for cancer when therapies used in combination. I guess we will see as time goes on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Textbook Technicals

    by trendnotyourfriend Jan 27, 2015 10:31 PM
    bettydavisstar bettydavisstar Jan 28, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    Great read, so true, wow.
    I've been buyin' hand over fist, looks like this one could go way past $10 sometime this year.
    Easy money and get to watch the shorts faces getting ripped off while I wait for great things from the company. This year should be fun for longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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