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Oshkosh Corporation Message Board

bewiserbuygeiser 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 4, 2016 2:31 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2007
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  • bewiserbuygeiser by bewiserbuygeiser Feb 4, 2016 2:31 PM Flag

    Thought I would stay. This mad rush out means the bad news is imminent.

    Congratulations Mr. Berman you have cost another investor a lot of money. I hope you sleep well at night.

    Convertible Notes what a buffoon. At the Community College down the block from you, there is probably a Finance 101 class that tells you not to give debtholders an incentive to call your debt. They want this company to fail because they get to keep the company.

    Never have I seen two executives get schooled so badly. And you issued the notes multiple times.

    Rookies

  • bewiserbuygeiser by bewiserbuygeiser Feb 2, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    Imagine your Oak Tree, Dr. Pat, or any private entity or PE firm-

    JAKK is projecting $57m of EBITDA this year. Lets assume $50m for next year to be conservative.
    If they went private, I am guessing there is a minimum of $20m of cost savings. No Board Fees, No D&O insurance, lower comp for Exec Team, no Investor Relations expenses, etc.

    That's $70m of EBITDA.

    Oak Tree (example) puts in an offer of $10/share. That's $420m purchase price. But they have about $160m of Cash, so they would be out of pocket $260. The bank will easily loan them 4x EBITDA or $280m. But they would require some amount of skin in the game so lets say they put in $25m and borrow $235m.

    Over 5 years, it is reasonable to expect - especially with a skilled mgmt. team, that they grow EBITDA 10% per annum. That would mean $112m of EBITDA. If they then sold the company or took it public at 5x EBITDA - very plausible - that's $560m. Subtracts our the $235m of debt and that leaves you with $325m of value for the $25m you put in.

    Its even better than that because you would pay down some debt along the way.

    Why the F^&*% would Berman want to stay a public company and subject himself to this embarrassment when the Golden Goose is so willing to be had? You have idiots like Aeish out there and numerous other naysayers hammering you daily.

    If you sold the company he would make good money. And then if he stayed, he would make even more. If he didn't, he would get a great parachute.

    Does he enjoy pain? And why doesn't a PE firm wake up and take him out?

OSK
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