They never said what was the actual issue with the bran scarcity. Claimed there was just none available. Now they say it is related to the lack of capital. Are they going to engage in the pricing war with the competitor and buy the bran at any cost? How are they going to make any money? And even if they get another $5 mln and outbid the competitor and start running the plant at 300 tons - another transportation strike will kill them. Unless they do it right way and install extruders in different mills and will be getting stabilized bran.
But that will cost some more money they don't have and will take a year.
Anyway, in the 10-q they say the solution needed to be found during this quarter. If that thing costs $40 mln to build and can produce some $5 mln a year in profits if managed properly - it should have some value to someone. At least they should try to sell their share of the plant so the buyer assumes all the debt. If RIBT manages to walk away clean (with no debt) - the stock will triple.
In the SEC filing they mention an increased competition in purchasing the bran in Brazil. That makes much more sense than their explanations about farmers selling all the rice overseas or the flood.
How could anyone built a $50 mln plant and didn't think about availability of the raw materials. UFB.
Anyway, the US side look very good and if they walk away from Brazil - this is a healthy company even if they have to pay the debt. Just close the damn thing and walk away. Doesn't make any sense to lose $1 mln per quarter in hopes of making money there sometime in the future.
Ok, now it is flood in Brazil. Before it was weak currency that caused farmer to sell all their rice overseas, now the currency improved and farmers are not selling overseas - but it is flood and lack of capital.
And how come all the official numbers don't show Brazil rice production going down 30% ?
If they are thinking about idling Irgovel - what are they waiting for? For BK? I can understand running it with negative margins if they had a lot cash sitting in the bank. But they are barely breakeven in US and could make it , but losing $1 per quarter in Brazil is going to kill them.
At this point to keep Irgovel is like putting all your money on the red in casino.
Not sure why the bid is up AH. Either head fake or someone doesn't realize the loss of $300K in the quarter includes $1.9 mln received from escrow and/or capital raise.
Monday would be 46th day if my calculations are correct. In which case, don't they have to issue the SEC form by end of Sunday?
Garce, $50 mln for 2016? Didn't AS stated there won't be any meaningful revenues from IHMD side in 2016 and some small orders in 2017? I would be happy with $50 mln in revenues in 2018, let alone 2016.
I remember during the last CC they mentioned something will be announced in May. Or something to that extend.
The latest money raise for $3 mln was priced at $1.50. It is a usual practice for those who do such deals to sell the stock to get the money back and keep the warrants. And usually they don't care about the future, they just want to make a quick buck. Usually. Maybe this will be an exception and they let the stock rise gradually. Or if the company shows some improved performance - others will scoop all those shares.
I am not saying that. The management is saying that. Actually I am not believing them since I could not find anything that would suggest rice milling in Brazil went down 50% as they seem to claim. Yes, weak real compels farmers to export rice and I know the export is up several fold recently, but still the export is only 15% of the total rice production. Something doesn't jive here. They might have #$%$ off some suppliers and that is 80% of the bran shortage but they blame it all on the weak currency. If real moves closer to 3 for a dollar and they still are running below 300 tons per day - means they lied to us.
I don't think it is a demand issue. Rice bran oil is a commodity and there is a huge global market for it. Meaning they can sell many times more oil. Even if they sell the defatted bran at cost as a animal feed - they should still make money if they run the plant at 300 tons per day.
I see we have a great Monday morning quarterback here. If $1.07 was such a good time to jump in - why didn't you? Could've made easy buck if it was so obvious.
Some traders jumped out yesterday. Others may have longer time horizon. And they might even look at other factors than just a stock price. Maybe they think real will drift down to $3 and Irgovel gets enough bran and doubles its revenues and become profitable? And maybe they think if the stock was at $6 when the company was losing $10 mln a year it might go back to $6 if the company is profitable? In which case buying at $1.37 makes perfect sense.
But if you say $1.37 is a good time to sell implying the stock won't go higher - why don't you sell?
There are tons of news out of Brazil today. Their currency is moving in the right direction, there is hope for their economy to pick up. Brazil funds are up a lot today.
The CEO blames the underperforming of the Irgovel on the low currency , so if the real keeps moving maybe they will be getting more bran to process and start making money down there?
So someone who was watching this stock might've thought it is a good time to jump in, then traders piled on.
If they sell it now, I think they would get nothing for it. It doesn't belong to RIBT but to the partnership and if I am not mistaken the way the deal is structured the RIBT won't get paid unless the selling price is above $33 mln. And if we assume they can manage costs and the plant becomes at least breakeven - then there is not much sense selling it now. And if they manage to get enough bran - it might actually start making money.
I meant exported, not imported.
Brazil produces some 8 mln tons of rice per year. The numbers for export are around 1 mln tons per year plus or minus. Which would be some 15%. Even if it is up from 10% - that is still nothing. The remaining 85% are still being consumed locally. So who is misleading me? Short or Google?
They sure will. Although I am not sure Brazilians are as crazy about Olympics vs soccer World cup.
Also I am trying to google anything about dismal situation in Brazilian milling industry which Short blames for their problems and I just could not find anything.
I would assume if the mills were closing left and right down there - there would've been some articles. But nothing. So I tried to google about Brazilian huge rice exports but all I can find is that around 10% of the rice is imported. But if you believe Short - at least half of the rice is being imported.
So what if real moves back t $3 level and RIBT still has shortage of bran? What will the excuse be then?
Anyway, there is no reason to bail at this point. Let's see what Q1 numbers are. Ok , there is harvest season in Brazil in q1 and the stronger currency won't take effect unitl q2. So with a fresh harvest and a stronger currency - it would be interesting to see what Q2 will be in Brazil. I would love to believe the CEO about and believe that once the currency gets stronger they will get enough bran , but so far he didn't give any reasons to trust him. Maybe if at least once his projections come true, I might be more inclined to take his words with less grains of salt.
And again, the future is bright. At least on the US side.
The next quarter revenue should be very good. Wait, the same was said during the previous CC in the midway point of the quarter about q4 revenues on track to be around $7 mln, but they reported only $6.3.
Problem with their bright future is that it is only bright when they make promises but actual numbers always are not that great.
I don't care much about new 80 customers. They could have 800 new customers and if all of them being mom and pop stores - that won't add much to the bottom line. Just more headache.
Same for Narula deal. I don't think it will bring any meaningful revenue in next couple of years and no one cares at this point about the distant future with the company being on life support.
So right now it is high risk high reward stock. The risk being another round of dilution and the reward is they might actually start making money and grow revenues.
I want at least once to see their projections to come true. So let's see what the Q1 number will be. If they indeed show US side progressing upward, maybe that will remove some of the risk of the equation.
I am not a tech person but this technology will most likely survive and prosper. Little doubt about it. It is just who will own this technology - that is the question. If they don't fix this by end of summer - another round of dilution will drive the stock to below 10 cents.
If they figured out how to solve the issue - it would make a great sense to sit on it until 4/13.
But the fact warrants expire on 4/13 does not guarantee they found the way to solve the problem.
Maybe it is harder to fix but maybe it will be quicker to fix?
With finishing layer they had to make new batch send it to finishing layer company then to the potential customer. Each such test was taking a month ir so. Now they can play with the process and test it right away. It should take days for a test, not weeks.
2015 Loss is irrelevant. What is relevant is q4 losses and the business outlook for 2016. Or at least first half.
If the situation in Brazil didn't worsen and assuming the USA had a record Q - they should post some $0.5mln loss in q4. That would be a huge improvement considering they were loosing $2-3 mln per quarter.
And every subsequent quarter should be better if what they told us is true. So maybe they will turn the corner this year. In which case the stock will appreciate and a lot. But who knows. There is always something. Collapsed roof, transportation strike, drought , etc. And the huge demand that somehow does not materialize and all the new customers that place orders but the revenues stay flat.
Hope someone asks them about that deal where the are going to pay $18000 per ton of organic bran. Which is what 100 times more than regular? Hope they don't get stuck with that expensive inventory.
According to Yahoo estimates (in my recent experience they are actually pretty accurate) the company is going to post very small loss for q4 and q1, 16. Overall 2016 they should be breakeven.
If this is the case, the stock is a great buy at $1.20.
Of course, with this company it is always something they are missing.
First no capacity to process all the orders - they got the capacity. Then not enough bran in CA - they signed new mills, then not enough capital to buy the bran - they got a credit line but there is not enough bran in Brazil. Now the Brazil seems to be progressing in the right direction (the currency at least) and the CA farmers are in better shape this year - what will be the excuse this time?
Not getting enough bran would be a problem only if they manage to grow revenues. Last year they managed to get all the bran they needed in CA even without the 3rd mill. For the last 3 years they have been talking about huge demand but it somehow fails to materialize.
But CA water situation indeed is much better now and maybe maybe some customers were reluctant to develop new products while the situation with one of the ingredient was unpredictable. Now with the CA is on the way out of the drought - they might feel more inclined to invest in products based on RIBT bran.