Privy to the strategy? I covered my short yesterday, as I had posted on these very boards. I didn't think the big boys would push it down this far, this fast. Had I been "in the know," I'd be cleaning up right now; I regret covering yesterday.
If you have dry powder, good. I would wait until this fills the gap, which it looks like they're intent on now. Huge sell volume already today. Low $50s would be a fantastic long entry, especially if the company reports a blow-out Q3.
I never intended to be a d*&# on these boards. But there were a few people on here who said something to the effect of "you don't know what you're talking about," "it's never going to go down," and on and on.
I imagine I won't be hearing from any of them, but I do hope they realize how asinine and arrogant they were/are. This experience will hopefully serve as a lesson to them to be more objective about their investment decisions. NEVER EVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A STOCK SO MUCH THAT IT BLINDS YOUR JUDGMENT!
I'm out of here for the weekend. Later all.
For those that listened to me: congratulations, you'll have a great buying opportunity in the low $50s.
For those that didn't/laughed me out of here: karma is a b%&*.
Enjoy your weekend - GL all.
Agreed. There are so many calls for "MANIPULATION!" that it's embarrassing.
Take responsibility for your buy and sell decisions. If you don't understand why this is happening today, then you have not been paying attention to the price action since 8/26. This stock is in an intermediate downtrend.
It needs to hold this 50-day SMA area. If it doesn't, the shorts will press it down to $60 and look to fill that gap down to the low $50s. If it holds, then you can scale in longs.
Those are the facts - do with them what you will. GL all.
Yeah, need to be cautious here. Already 1MM in volume today...lots of sellers.
They are looking for a test of $60 and a breach of the gap. If it breaks $60...look out below.
If it holds the 50-day SMA, then you can scale in on longs.
Should find support at the 50-day SMA at $61.60ish.
Covered my short from $66 at $61.92... 6% gain in a few days.
Might go long here if this level holds.
Lol, you made an unsolicited ad hominem attack on me by calling me a tiny man, after all I did was tell this board I was taking a short position and then defending the position when asked why. But it appears as though you took that as a personal attack somehow. I mean, yeesh...talk about being emotional about an investment.
And THEN you started talking about how much $ you've made! The irony here is absolutely delicious.
I'm just going to stop posting here. I thought there was room for intelligent discourse and that maybe some of you bulls would want to hear the other side of the argument. But I guess I was wrong.
Take care all.
GOOD FOR YOU! But I don't see how ANY OF THIS pertains to what I had posted yesterday, and the vigorous challenges that I responded to in kind. And all I was met with was a bunch of "yeah, right, whatever" types of responses.
I play for a few points because this is a trade; it is not an investment. I'm not going to bother getting into details because you're obviously extremely close-minded and won't pay attention/listen to anything I have to say anyways.
Best of luck to you.
Excellent investment on your part! All you need is a few big ones and you'll have more $ than you can dream of :-)
Thanks for being one of the courteous ones here. Cheers!
And it's tough to believe you're one of them since you can't even spell resistance correctly :-)
Thanks for playing! Cheers.
Retested yesterday's high around 66.20 at the open. Fell, then bounced to 66 and couldn't get beyond that level. And now we're
Yeah? I should've covered when it was 66.08 instead of the 65.1x it is now? Sorry dude...I'd rather make money than lose it :-)
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" Sir John Templeton
It's simple: because my time frame is probably a lot shorter than yours. This is a trade, not an investment. And for my time frame, the risk-reward of a short trade is far superior to that of a long one.
Getting 4-5% over the span of a few days is certainly not "peanuts." Compound a bunch of those types of trades over the course of a year and it will absolutely blow most buy-and-hold positions out of the water. And if one were to use options, those gains would be magnified.
So, what is it that you don't understand? Why I don't use P/Es? And when did I say I was "so shrewd?" Please - explain.
Under or overvalued is merely a matter of perception. You were saying QCOR was undervalued when it was in the 70s - or, I guess even almost $75 at the 52W high. Had there been people buying on your advice, they would currently be ~15% underwater right now.
Could they eventually make money if QCOR follows through fundamentally? Sure. But it probably would've been nice for them to be able to pick up a few more shares at current (or lower) prices and be able to ride it all the way back up, and not have to sweat about their positions.
This is EXACTLY why I am posting here. There are people on here who will spew nonsense about analyst price projections, why the company should be valued at abc vs. xyz, etc. And there are people who come on here, read this stuff, and make buy-and-sell decisions based on that information.
If I were someone who bought in the $70s based on you saying QCOR was a bargain or whatever...I would be #$%$. If only because I could have bought 10-15% more shares right now and not be sitting on a pretty big loss.
And that is exactly what the value of technical analysis is about. Fundamentals will guide a stock's PPS over the long term, but in the short-term, when timing entries and exits into and out of stocks, technical analysis has value.
From a technical standpoint, it doesn't matter what triggered QCOR losing $66. I'll repeat that, because it's important to understand: whatever catalyst it was that caused the drop - and people on here are pointing to rumors, manipulation, etc., etc. - it absolutely does not matter in terms of PPS. Why? Because $66 was support, it lost support, and now it's resistance. Don't try to over-think this stuff.
Yes, a big piece of news can drastically change PPS overnight. The short float alone guarantees a lot of volatility. But please don't act as though it's a one-way street. Just about a year ago, QCOR went down 60% in the span of a week. Throwing money at QCOR right now is by no means a riskless proposition.
This short will be covered prior to the earnings release. As a rule, I never trade around earnings releases.
Yes, QCOR could beat expectations. Yes, they do have a track record of doing so. But there is no guarantee that they will do it again. And there is also no way of being able to effectively gauge the - and this is what's key - reaction to earnings. This stock could still beat, but if the big institutions don't think it's "good enough" - poor guidance/outlook, a miss on the top line, something - then the PPS will sink. I've seen it happen dozens of times with dozens of other companies. When a stock's price has run up as far and as quickly as one like QCOR's has, it is priced to perfection. Any slip can send it tumbling.
Trading on an earnings expectation is effectively a coin flip and, therefore, closer to gambling than trading. Whether QCOR hits or misses, there will be a wide and wild swing in the PPS given the big short float. And I will trade in that direction after the fact.
Will I miss the initial pop or drop? Absolutely. Will I still be able to make nice $ on the post-earnings reaction? Absolutely. Given that, I prefer the certainty of knowing which way it will move first.
Now...had I been long since the 20s/30s/40s, or whatever most of the folks on here have as their cost basis, then I would ride the position through earnings. Only makes sense when you have that much of a cushion.
Eh. Take a look at the volume footprint post-Q2 earnings breakout. A lot of distribution has been going on - more volume on red days than on green days.
And, as a counterargument, low volume is actually a bigger risk for longs. Why? Because for a rally to continue to sustain itself, it needs buyers. If there aren't any buyers, then the supply-demand equation shifts in favor of supply - i.e., sellers and shorts.
If a short hasn't covered by now, then they look to be in it for the long haul. And a drop of ~$10 on PPS over the last few weeks isn't exactly going to instill a lot of fear in them to cover their positions; it'll only embolden them.
I don't even look at P/Es when I'm trading. I stated below that the company looks good from a fundamental perspective. But from a technical one, it looks ugly right now.
In my experience I've found P/Es aren't too useful/indicative of future price action. AAPL's P/E is, by most measures, cheap for a company with its fundamental characteristics, while the NFLX/LNKD/AMZN/TSLA/whatevers of the world all have ridiculous P/Es. But tell me which of those stocks you'd have rather been long over the past year or so.