8.62 here and that would be nice if 9 by eod.......these 5K are just a trade for a few bucks and will be gone befor the close.........hopefully for at least the 10 penny profit.
Yeah kem, on CLF.....I made some good dough (for me) on TCK trading in b4 0.41 divvy and then getting a nice spike after and trading out..........like 8K profit in a couple of weeks trade..........after that added to CLF @ 14.68.......it would be nice if Casablanca now played along and there was a bit of peace going into the agm.......
maturity is BK is fearmongering and likely disingenuous........that said, until there is a plan elucidated by GE, the fearmongerers have every right to try to scare people out of their positions. Are they lying.......well, yeah.....could they be right...........well, if there is some sort of global economic meltdown or banking crisis......maybe. If you are long DRYS, you know you own a big chunk of a very valuable drlling company with a huge backlog that will create massive cash flow for many years to come. You also know you own a large fleet of bulkers and tankers that have massive cash flow potential in a thriving economy. You also know that the shipping part of the equation has a lot of debt........always have and always will. You also know that when people keep harping on profits, you couldnt really care less at this stage as these companies are all about cash flow. You also would have to believe that the global economy and with it global trade and shipping are about to take off, and with that......historically......rates. While it is their right to do it, I dont really get why some individuals take the time to post forty or fifty times a day on a message board that something is going bk and that a bond wont be rolled or refinanced when the fact is, under most scenarios it will.........could you be right, of course........when the global meltdown happened, there was a chance that BACs balance sheet would fall apart without the govt stepping in........so if you believe a recession or depression is going to happen in the next few months, I appreciate the warning......otherwise, you need to find a new hobby.
All good points ladajo and cant disagree with effect going forward of further dilution but they needed to have that authority......they have gone from 47M shares out to 75M since 2012.......I just hope he doesnt use it.......also keep in mind the 26pct of NAO is helping to make up for some of that dilution........heck even if they sold that now they would have 110M bucks and could buy back 15M of their shares with that dough.......it is not a good idea to issue shares at a low price but he did actually buy something of value with the last 2 issuances......if rates for the tanker side take off, I believe the dilution will have been worth it this time and I agree they will need to be judicious with future dilution. If rates do not rise, we should not be invested here. Cheers, BG.
Obviously you have a point about dilution. Wrt buying in an entire position at 12 pps, that would have been very poor investing. However, for those who started positions and averaged in, say they did get burned by the share issuances and are down from an average of 10........next question is what has Herb done with the money from the last few share sales, and I believe it has been well deployed.......the stake in NAO will provide cash to the parent company in the form of dividends (which you know Herb will pass on to NAT shareholders) and they have picked up 2 more suezies at reasonable prices when rates, from all accounts appear to be rising. To say that the max for div. per quarter would be .20 to .25 is not a fact as rates are very volatile and just as they swung to all time lows, they can just as quicly fly......say for example the end of 2014 is like the start of it......and with that, you could sell out of your 10 cost per share at 14 or 15.......or keep the shares for div of .35 to .40 per quarter. Your point is dilution is bad......agreed, to a degree.......some of the dilution seemed to be funding dividends during the disastrous rate period, but the most recent share issuances to me have been creating value and WLL increase the potential max dividend which is exactly what Herb has told us is their mission.
Yes you can jr........the better option for you however would be not to post in the first place.
Hey NMB, while I do my own dd, you have provided a lot of valuable information and are a large part of the reason I started a position here in ACSF. Don't think it's a long term hold for me (ACAS is) but as a value play, I'll take the .28 and wait for a little pps appreciation (which I think is inevitable) and then ring the register. As always, thank you for sharing your knowledge here and on ACAS board..
Thanks NMB, always a fountain of factual information. At .29 that would be a 8.3% yield on a pretty safe investment......hopefully hear from my MTGE this week as well (doubt they'll increase the div. but the .65 seems much more stable now than earlier this year).
as this gains traction a visit to (hopefully) book value for the pps.......don't know how quick that'll happen though.......congrats to those that got in in low 13's......this is still a good deal
Correct art, the 10% discount for bundling these companies seems reasonable, especially given the fact that ACAM will receive management fees via ACE III. That discount was addressed in Q1 writedown right? I think the planned way forward for mngmt right from 2009 has been to slowly return to a more traditional BDC on one hand and to somehow transfer all the risk of the equity positions off the balance sheet. I guess to make that happen, there will be deals like this that have to happen. As to management paydays, how does ACAS compare to other BDC's? I know on last ER they showed as a percentage of assets, it is one of the lower ones......but on an absolute dollar basis, is it really excessive compared to other similar companies? The huge share bonus for Malon does bug me a little, but if that's a standar.....I guess that's just the way it is.
Well, as I said, I may be missing something. Part of posting on this mb is having people correct me at times with my misconceptions. However, wouldn't that change the valuation of SMG in the ACE III deal and wouldn't they have had to disclose whatever cash 'ACAS' provided as part of the deal? What I have posted above is my perception, and by no means do I 'know'. That's just how I read it.
Don, it was SMG that acquired Premier Foods......not ACAS (though SMG is a portfolio company). It is also worth noting that within the next month, SMG will no longer be wholly owned by ACAS but managed by ACAM. It is reassuring to me that even with the reorg. going on the portfolio companies continue to move forward in a growth oriented fashion as this will increase the value of ACE III and hence the management fees that ACAS will receive in the future. Unless of course I am missing something on this.......which is possible.....this is a pretty complex company right now.
To be fair audio, JR once posted that he really depreciated all the information and opinions that are posted on here about the company.
I am by no means full of myself as I make mistakes investing.....lots, but I generally do quite well. That said, investing success or failure is nobodys elses fault. If you make an investment you should do as much due diligence as possible yourself and when you read bs wall street, MF, seeking alpha, Cramer, analyst stuff you read it, filter it and make an informed choice. There are a lot of issues with CLF right now that lead to uncertainty and shorts have every right to extrapolate the worst case scenario.........I happen to disagree longer term. It bugged the daylights out of me how every homeowner under water on their homes blamed the banks and mortgage folks and everyone else when they bought the flippen homes themselves knowing that they probably couldnt afford it. Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see........but in the end it is not wall street, your broker, analysts or message board posters fault what happens.......its all you.
The drys mboard has become unreadable. For CLF the message board is likely just as effed up as the actual Board of Directors. When something is dirt cheap and people start doing the bk talk, time to start looking harder.........btw, just started a position in TCK too.....I know, I know, IO and Coal are evil, useless, terrible things..........lets see how the rest of the year plays out.
someone below mentioned 12, maybe........well know the capitulation when its happening and it will be a great time for a profitable trade (regardless of the long term prospects for CLF)
Interesting planning, the record date was set as June 17th, meaning if you buy the NAO shares tomorrow (the day of the IPO), you get the divvy.......but wait a day and you miss out. Of course NAT will get their div. fro the shares the co. owns and hopefully tomorrow NAT gives us clarity on the date shareholders will recieve their 0.13 per share worth of NAO shares.