Whatever about the technicals, fundamentals here about to look a lot prettier in 1H 2014 due to ORIG and continue to look better due to bulkers/tankers as 2014 continues.......huge share count here I believe limits upside but somewhere between 7 and 10 seems FV to me.
Thanks for this....now I know what does the fox say. Share count (even with options.....gotta pay your people) does keep moving down, and will continue to. Thanks for the chart.
and the plot seems to thicken more and more with mu....after Elpida/hynix fire/DRAM+NAND run/overall market rise/Einhorn stake.......could we actually be still waiting for a short squeeze....hope everyone's enjoying the tryptophan coma as well as counting their MU blessings.
of course we're getting well ahead of moving averages but if this goes on much longer, you may have yet to see capitulation by the large short position......this is getting really interesting.
Happy Thanksgiving to all on the most informative, polite and insightful board on Yahoo. Wherever he is now, I even wish Ferdie a happy turkey day too.
Well, the people who predict short term movements have their own gig and some seem to be very good at it. That is not my strong suit at all. I like to accumulate positions over time and hold 'til what I consider fair value is realized. En route, when you have a market that is up 26%, I don't mind raising a little cash from winners. Technically, MU has been a picture perfect stock up on big volume.....pull backs to MA's on lower volume....higher highs, higher lows.........and a battle between some strong inst. longs and a large short position that may have waited too long to cover.....my ideal scenario is a continued steady painful (for shorts) climb and finally capitulation and we overshoot my fair value estimate.
Obviously I tend to agree with you, hence I continue to hold a large stake. Someone asked when he should consider selling and my only point was if you have 200+% gains in under 2 years, it is not unreasonable to take a little off the table. You are suggesting that this is silly since we all know MU can earn $3.5......I agree with that but I can't say it 'for sure'.....what I can say for sure right now is my position has a cost basis of zero and yes, I can sit back and relax right along with you. Cheers marnis, we are both on the same side of this stock, just different ways of dealing with how/when to book gains.
touche marnis......my only point was I believe (for MU) there are a good few people who have reallllly big gains and random things can happen to tank a company's pps prospects (whether company specific or the overall market in general). As I held MU in a tax-free account the decision to trim was also impacted by the lack of cap-gains taxation. Still MU is a huge holding for me and apparently destined to become huger. Good luck to longs.
Codi, you asked for a long term holders opinion. I believe that MU can earn 3 or 4 bucks a share and have a target price set accordingly much higher than here. However, after waiting on this since 2011 and having substantial gains, I did eventually trim some of the original position in the seventeens. The fire at Hynix really pumped up micron at the time but it also is a reminder that random things could happen to negatively impact the future earnings of micron. As such, if you have large gains already I believe taking some profits is not unreasonable. Yes, I trimmed a bit too soon, but I still have most of the position and the security of having taken my original cost out of the equation. Knowing Einhorn is in makes any future trims less likely until we are closer to $40 (and I can handle all kinds of volatility that an overall market correction may induce).
mwb, how do you feel that a recovering Eurozone impacts the shipping sector........Obviously the focus is always China, but really......hasn't the biggest problem the last few years been the fairly large economy that is the EU, If, as I believe, the EU is about to take off again might we not find ourselves fairly soon in a position where the supply/demand balance in shipping has shifted/tipped in favour of the shippers again. , I have definitely never claimed to be an expert here and appreciate the information you and others have added. Cheers, BG.
and we may actually get some covering. Or even if no news, who will be more nervous leading up to Dec. ER. Of course, the overall market may want to pull back, but I wonder if that's going to happen before the next round of Washington BS in 2014.
As always, thanks for your insight. Seems this new offshore supply vessel venture is their way to try and generate some additional cash flow in the meantime. They don't really have to deal with debt until 2017 and as I prefer building long term positions (lord knows I've spent a few years getting into DRYS at a reasonable cost), I'll wade my way in further through the next year.
Audio, really curious about your take on NAT. I know they did the offering early '13 to 'buy a new tanker' and when that fell through they used some to pay down debt and obviously the balance is helping to fund the divvy while cash flow is negative. I also know that they have a low breakeven cost. While rates were still in the toilet in October, it seems they've (as you'd expect) picked up steam in November. Their debt situation seems very manageable and they at least 'appear' to have been very conscious of returning value to shareholders. I've appreciated your expertise on DRYS the last few years and know you must have a take on NAT......I started a position in the low 8's in NAT and am looking to add (not for a quick trade but to hold at least a year or two).
As you said chris, the chart has been a thing of beauty moving up on big volume and returning down to the moving averages on lower volume. The fundamental story backs up the move as well. Obviously the overall market should correct and who knows how much that will affect MU, but December earnings will hopefully reward all of our optimism. Have a great weekend.
I hear ya cc, I had to wait a little longer as I was holding MU from late 2011.....kept promising to trim at 10, then after Elpida finalized, then at 15.......after the last ER, I finally trimmed one third of position in the 17s and will hold the rest for much greater appreciation. Hynix fire was a boon to MU but also a reminder that random things can happen to negatively affect any company so I had to ring the register a little.
Hey there hi, havent been on here in a bit as just holding the balance of MU shares for much greater appreciation. Wondering if you are still sniffing around DRYS. You are the technical guy but looks to me like a good ole cup handle on two year chart and that it is about to take off (my guess Jan.). Any tech thoughts would be appreciated.
Agreed b+w, reading the cc transcript (was busy when call was live) was very reassuring as to the companies focus and direction. Mngmt is well aware of a few things 1)They have to utilize the tax asset and it makes no sense at all to pay the paltry divvy available now so must continue share buyback 2)They understand that they are being judged on NOI (which is obviusly poor) and seem to be moving in a direction where that metric can be directly enhanced by their equity holdings. As more holdings are sold (some will suggest they cant be sold) and new ones purchased (ideally over 80%) they intend to enhance NOI via interest from new debt and dividends from these new equity holdings. Like I said, this is a slow cooking stew......should be ready by late 2014.
I think the tough thing for ACAS shares is people have gotten pretty spoiled with outsized gains over the last few years (I have def. enjoyed it myself). I think there are a lot of people who don't have the patience (or inclination) to think long term and as such this just isn't the stock for them.......not so much fear as boredom. I didn't really expect anything today but as I've stated I do believe the NAV and think that a recovering world economy means higher marks for their equity positions.....and also higher rates.....at which point they sell stuff, burn off the tax asset and buy lots of income producing 'stuff' to give us a $3 dividend........let's say late 2014 it begins......I can wait.
with regards to interest/dividends.....As advertised a kind of cruddy quarter again......still doesn't change the fact that NAV is approaching $20/share......and they chopped a good chunk off ACAM valuation so I don't believe they're hiding anything.
ORIG up a bunch means DRYS......will follow......unfortunately like a drunken sailor