From a post on SA:
DC Bead is a treatment for liver cancer. It is an embolic bead delivered through a minimally-invasive non-surgical procedure to block the blood flow to tumors. China accounts for ~50% of the world's liver cancer cases.
In China the incidence of liver disease is huge, so there will be a substantial need for DC Bead. It would be nice for the company o put out some numbers and time frame for the roll out of the product. They have had ample time to put together a marketing plan, they may have even already taken the first steps knowing that the approval was near. Friedhelm referenced that a year ago.
Furthermore.....Analysts described InterMune's price tag as "hefty" given it only has one marketed product in a field that is likely to become increasingly competitive over time. The InterMune deal brings it a promising new drug, pirfenidone........Industry analysts expect pirfenidone, which is given as a pill, to have sales of $1.04 billion in 2019.....
Roche is paying 8 times sales of a medication 5 years into the future. CTSO filter can become SOC for CBP surgery in 5 years.
When estimating the number of shares, I use 600MM. If Intermune is worth $8.3 billion to Roche, what value does CTSO have? If the company is valued as the same as Intermune (based on 8 times the sales of the filter for CBP surgery) the pps would be $13. That ignores other indications.
I think that in the future - 3 to 4 months out - CTSO should have a market cap that is comparable to other small pharma's that have limited or no sales. CTSO could easily have a market cap of $1 to $2 billion dollars. This would put the PPS in the $1.5 to $3 range, even with 600MM shares.
I bought the "hype" when the pps was under .10 - This allowed me to average down to the low teens.
Since then, when I first bought Cytosorb, it received CE approval. A year plus later there was the initial sales. The sales continue to grow quarter over quarter and now we are reading more case studies. Oh, I forgot to mention the grants. The "hype" just keeps on coming, now is a good time to buy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Ctso will initiate a CBP trial this year. Trial design parameters are being developed and negotiated with the FDA. Once the announcement is made That the FDA approves the trial the PPS will have a nice spike.
From a press release:
“Specifically, the Penn West press release notes that operating expenses for fiscal years 2012 and 2013 totaling $111 million and $70 million respectively, were reclassified to property, plant, and equipment as capital expenditures without adequate support. Moreover, for each of the fiscal years 2012 and 2013, the audit committee identified approximately $100 million in operating expenses that were incorrectly reclassified as royalty expenses. Other areas of review include the income statement classification of certain costs and credits and the timing of certain accruals relating to production, operating costs, and capital.”
It looks like the accounting manual needs to up dated – or at least procedures monitored for compliance. The bean counters simply put the numbers in the wrong bucket, whether it is intentional or not. For the period in question this amount to about $380 million needing to be reclassified ($200 million still are expenses) over that 3 year period. For that same period PWE had what, about $6 billion in revenue. It should be an interesting cc.
Those numbers equate to about a growth rate of 25% quarter over quarter. Historically the company has been doing better that that. So you are right, the figures are are conservative.
I have pared my position to around 12K shares. Finally, I have committed myself to trade on the swings in SCLN, the pps is volatile enough that is about the only way to make money on the security. My BE is now under $2. The company fundamentals still look good but it needs other indications brought to the market for the PPS to break out of this range. Personally I think the Chinese are trying to make it difficult for foreign drug manufactures so they can develop their pharma industry. Regardless, once DC Bead is approved I think the PPS will exceed $10.
I don't know about a coiled spring or a rocket lift off but this company has a lot going for it and longs will be rewarded handsomely for it .
I have no idea what numbers he is using, but Dr. Chan at one time said that production can accommodate two years of demand. However, that comment was made before filter use in CBP surgery became front and center. Regardless, CTSO is well aware of capacity planning. This would be a good question for the next conference call.
That is not necessarily true, hospitals will have a finite number of renal dialysis machines - if the units is used for the the filter then the machine can't be used for dialysis. Consequently more machines will need to be purchased. The nice thing about CBP surgery is the filter become part of the the Heart-Lung Bypass machine as the filter is connected into the circuit.
"...over less than 6 months." The yahoo number is for an estimate for one year, it is not a year end estimate. But, like yourself I am waiting for the the $0.50 one year estimate made two years ago. The estimates are at least going up but one doesn't know when it'll happen.
What will the price do when the announcement is made the FDA approves the trial for the filters use in Cardio-bypass Surgery, when the filter is approved and used for CB surgery in Europe? That is only months away.