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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

big_pharma_coming 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 9, 2016 3:01 PM Member since: Oct 4, 2011
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  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Mar 9, 2016 3:01 PM Flag

    Amazing is the right word - let me post

  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Mar 9, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    see Press Release today with NCI Rosenberg - Cooper co author amazing

  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Mar 9, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    Today;s Abstract makes deal near term almost a certainty

  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Mar 8, 2016 2:48 PM Flag

    Cooper is the smartest man in the room

  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Mar 8, 2016 2:48 PM Flag

    Agree - the off the shelf concept is what Cooper is all about - said from diagnosis to treatment will be possible same day - 1/10th the cost and safer. Slam Dunk

  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Mar 8, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    LIE

  • big_pharma_coming big_pharma_coming Feb 10, 2016 8:17 PM Flag

    ZIOP CEO Dr Cooper is THE expert in NK cells - did you hear Cooper say NK off the shelf trials coming this yr - AML and brain cancer. this is really really positive - he said the NK cells are already developed by MD Anderson. Man is wall street missing the synergies that accrue to CELG benefit here

  • CANTOR Fitzgerald
    Celgene Corporation (CELG-$97.21) Rating: BUY Target Price: $163.00

    Fundamentals and Pipeline are Compelling; Adjusting 2016 EPS; Maintain BUY and $163 PT.

    Investment Summary. Celgene shares were weak following 4Q:15 EPS. The
    quarter and 2016 EPS were pre-announced and thus not likely the source of the
    weakness. Rather, we think the market is seizing upon perceived negatives to sell off shares, such as potential for currency to clip 2017 EPS. The trajectory of Celgene's EPS growth is at the top of the industry, and the pipeline appears to us to have heft to maintain growth in the out-years. As such, we think minor adjustments in sales or EPS are not meaningful as the overall trajectory is positive, with industry-leading growth and modest clinical risk relative to peers. We continue to expect strong cash flow that could allow guidance to trend up through 2016, but if it doesn't occur, it is more a function of strategic deployment of cash to support the next generation of products, which we think is a net positive. We reiterate our BUY and $163 PT.

    o Color on the Quarter. 4Q:15 EPS was positively affected by stocking for
    REVLIMID but also absorbed a milestone payment of $70 million to OncoMed.
    Foreign exchange impacted the quarter negatively ($16 million) though its
    impact has been effectively muted with the internal hedging programs. Due
    to stocking and gross to net adjustments, 1Q:16 is looking to show weaker
    REVLIMID growth, but this is transitory, in our view.

    o REVLIMID Continues to Grow. Revlimid has been a growth engine for
    Celgene, and we continue to expect this to be the case, even with the loss of
    an indication for low/intermediate non 5q del MDS. The overall growth rate is
    being driven by multiple indications, and there are still others on the way, such
    as DLBCL.

    o Conservative Guidance, and Adjusting Forecast. Previous guidance was
    reiterated, though we think the earnings power may be greater than the company
    is publicly forecasting. Projected 2016 net product sales are $10.5-11.0 billion,
    including $6.6-6.7 billion in REVLIMID sales, and EPS are expected to be in
    the range of $5.50-5.70. We see these expectations as leaving room for currency
    headwinds and milestone payments, which may not fully occur, in our view.
    We have trimmed out 2016 EPS to $5.85 from $5.90, which is still ahead of
    consensus.

    o Portfolio is Growing as is Pipeline. Other portfolio products, such as
    POMALYST (+45%) and OTEZLA (284%), as well as ABRAXANE posted
    nice gains, with additional country rollouts expected to contribute to growth. In
    addition, a number of trials are expected to readout over the next 24 months,
    including REMARC (REVLIMID in DLBCL) this year.

    o Valuation. We use an equal weighting of P/E and DCF analysis to generate a
    PT of $163 per share.

    Summary
    With a bearish market and a tough biotechnology tape, we see Celgene as a quality biotechnology name to own in 2016 and think that there is upside potential from earnings, and a de-risked long term picture with the REVLIMID/Natco patent settlement. With this generic settlement in the U.S. for Celgene’s flagship product, REVLIMID, in place, and modest 2016 guidance (which leaves room for upside, in our view) we think focus should return to the company’s strong fundamentals, which are driven by portfolio products such as POMALYST and OTEZLA. While we expect REVLIMID to maintain growth from new indications and increasing duration of treatment (such as triplet combinations, etc.), we believe it is the combination of EPS upside from new products and indications that will drive near-term growth. Additive to this are efforts to bring new products to market, both organically and through acquisition and licensing, that hold the potential to enhance long-term growth prospects, and most importantly, diversify dependence away from REVLIMID. Celgene has multiple product candidates with significant market potential, which provides a buffer from singleproduct/ candidate dependency. We reiterate our BUY rating and $163 PT.

    De-Risking REVLIMID
    While the last Orange Book listed patent expires in early 2027, the threat of generic competition earlier through patent challenge has been a weight on the shares, in our view. The settlement announced on December 22 provides Natco with a volume-limited license to sell generic REVLIMID in the United
    States beginning in March 2022 (earlier than the 2023 patent expiration), with the first year limited to mid-single percentage of total capsules dispensed (we estimate 5-7%) for 12 months, increasing via an undisclosed formula on the anniversary of the generic launch (March) until 2025, when the volume tops out at one-third of total capsules dispensed. On January 1, 2026, Natco will be permitted to sell an unlimited quantity of REVLIMID, which is roughly 16 months ahead of the April 2027 patent expiration. We view this settlement as a major positive outcome for Celgene, as it removes multiple negative scenarios that have weighed heavily on the shares and included loss of 2027 exclusivity with full-blown generic competition in 2023.

    Multiple growth drivers and de-risked REVLIMID patent cliff De-risked REVLIMID patent cliff

    Valuation
    While we have used P/E and the opportunity for organic growth to drive multiple expansion as a way to value Celgene shares, we also believe that due to the company’s strength in generating cash flow, evaluating the shares on a DCF-basis is warranted. On a P/E basis, we think the shares could trade to 20x our 2017 EPS forecast of $7.49, or $150. But on a DCF basis, we see value at $177, which accounts for the increase in debt burden offset by a rising long-term growth rate. Using an equal weighting of these two valuation methodologies takes us to a PT of $163 per share. We continue to think that an industry-leading P/E multiple is warranted given accelerating double-digit EPS growth through 2020, strong cash flow, upside from the portfolio (REVLIMID, POMALYST, ABRAXANE, OTEZLA), and strategic value as a leading hematology company.

  • VERY RARE INTERVIEW - ZIOP Chairman and XON CEO RJ Kirk will be on CNBC with Meg T on Closing Bell between 3 pm and 5 PM....definitely ZIKA virus and Oxitec will be definitely be talked about but she has wanted to talk to Kirk about MD Anderson and ZIOP for over a yr so I am hoping maybe its a longer interview including something anything on ZIOP. Definitely though will hit Zika.

ACAD
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