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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

big_red_sun 181 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 27, 2015 10:15 AM Member since: Mar 27, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Consolidation in the Sector

    by retiredarmyjoe Jan 13, 2015 10:36 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 27, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    Talking to myself. Sorry.

    I understand that some of the UDWs might go ashcan, and that ESV or others could buy out of receivership. They could also buy indvidual ships. Oversupply seems to be the issue, but is UDW at all insulated, vs Jack Ups, etc? That might make some the entire companies targets.

    Why do I feel like I am whistling past the graveyard looking at these type of stocks? They are speculative.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Consolidation in the Sector

    by retiredarmyjoe Jan 13, 2015 10:36 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 27, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    Howdy from Texas,

    How about turning that observation on it's head? I don't see a non-driller taking out a driller. Just my opinion.

    Is ESV in a good enough position to become an acquirer, vs the acquired? Just for the sake of discussion, what if they:

    1. Dropped the dividend.
    2. Announced what portion of payouts would go to servicing debt/de-leveraging.
    3. Look at selective take outs of smaller niche players, maybe in UDW area, or where they need presence. No names, not pumping any stock in particular, but I am looking out at the smaller riskier ones, and some are now trading at very low book values, etc. Of course, if nobody winds up wanting those ships, then book don't mean much. And they are all leveraged quite a bit. That is what makes this interesting to me.

    In any event, if you really want risk, go buy one of the UDWs. If you want less, maybe ESV or other majors. If you want even less risk, a fund of oil field services. Just my thoughts.

    Does this make sense to anyone? Flame away if you feel the need, not looking to date any of you. But, if you have a reasoned response, would appreciate it.

    Best of luck all,

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    results were decent

    by mystk7 Jan 21, 2015 9:41 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 21, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    They were okay, but I do think Rommetty needs to be gone. Totally uninspired leadership, even with a tough hand. Sad, frankly. IBM has a better story than HP ever dreamed of having, but they have Meg that seems to have a clue as to how to communicate with the investing community.

    I am particularly interested/concerned with the systems biz. The Z and P series are just at the start of their cycles, and that should help a lot. But, IBM sure does not say much about it.

    I know the cloud is a real impact, but goodness, at least emphasize the cycles on the systems, and how it should pull along software and services. If the X86 is killing 'em that bad, then, boy, get out of the stock. I am considering that more and more.

    I have 200 shares left of a whole lot more I bought in 1994/5, so I am a pretty happy shareholder. But the last 3 years have been sad. Reversion to the mean, perhaps, stock wise. But, Rommetty just comes off as a robot, repeating "analytics, cloud, mobile, security". She skipped the CC again. Unacceptable, given the results.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Here comes $10... $50+Oil

    by cubicle_99 Jan 18, 2015 7:55 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 20, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    Howdy,

    I have been stooging around on drillers for years, never buying in. I have had BAS on my radar all along, and have watched it go from 10 to 30 back to 5. Good luck calling oil price over this week, month, or quarter.

    But, since you bring it up, my take is wait for first quarter earnings, maybe get a washout on all the oil stocks in late 1Q going into 2Q. Just my guess, nothing more. A lot of the bigger names, especially outside of oil services are not down near as much as oil is.

    That said, BAS has gotten so hammered it looks like they are being priced for not surviving. Any chance they get acquired instead? Same type of idea on some of the smaller offshore drillers, but these companies sure are ultra high beta.

    Good luck with it.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Barron's: Oil May Fall to $20

    by lookoutgrady Jan 10, 2015 10:55 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 11, 2015 7:43 PM Flag

    Not at all. We're just more efficient with each barrel, especially on the industrial usage.

    People are driving more efficient vehicles, and at the margins, going hybrid and electric. Also ordering stuff on Amazon for bulk delivery instead of a 10 minute drive in the ole SUV to MalWart. There is a lot of oil displacement/substitution happening.

    Things have changed...until oil stays low enough long enough that we all go back to previous habits. Same ole story.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 7, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    They presented at GS conference today. Look at slides 3-5 on edgar dot gov of their presentation. Not pretty.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    RDC

    by svtechinvestor Dec 17, 2014 3:25 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 5, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Thanks. I think I will sniff around more on this one. Good luck to you.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    RDC

    by svtechinvestor Dec 17, 2014 3:25 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 5, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    Never mind question on 2H15, went and looked at their rig reports. I guess a couple high dollar rigs come on line then....good luck, BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    RDC

    by svtechinvestor Dec 17, 2014 3:25 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Jan 5, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Howdy,

    Live in Texas, but no background in oil. Been watching drillers (land, and now off shore) for a while (several years, since fracking hit the news wires), and have not bitten. Lucky me. So far.

    In any event, SDRL does seem to have a very complex structure and a lot of debt. I have been looking at ESV ever since it was on Value Line portfolio list about 6 months ago. I also just saw a Morningstar article today saying they liked RDC and ESV of the drillers. Both seem to have conservative financials and newer rigs.

    If you don't mind, what is the logic on your statement of 2nd half 15 free cash flow spiking on RDC? Is that new rigs with new contracts? I know I can search it, but it is kind of fun to see some of these forums go along.

    I know any contract has outs, etc, but it does seem the hammering oil and the off shore rigs have taken is getting excessive. Maybe late 1Q, early 2Q bottom? I am not a trader, more a value/hold for a while type of guy.

    Good luck,

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Why the drop?

    by slam_stocks Dec 12, 2014 11:06 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Dec 12, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    Big computer glitch shutting down London airports, according to The Register. Says there are a lot of IBM boxes there. Maybe rumor it was a mainframe going down or some such?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Have to admit, called this one wrong.

    by audiophul Nov 27, 2014 1:49 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Nov 27, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    Shake it off, move on, good luck to you and yours.

    I have been interested since I saw ESV in one of Value Line's write-ups about a year ago.

    SDRL and other drillers are fascinating, but how you value them is beyond me. I put hold on my sentiment, because I have never taken a position. Probably never will.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Wellllll loookee there 69 $ oil

    by beavercleavver Nov 27, 2014 1:21 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Nov 27, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    It was trading today. You make a pointless point. You do that all the time, and you have been wrong all the way down.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Saudia Arabia to INCREASE OIL OUTPUT

    by expert_stock Nov 27, 2014 1:21 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Nov 27, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    It will benefit way more companies (and consumers) than it hurts. I am not much for conspiracy theories, but Saudi and the US trying to hurt Russia, Iraq, and Venezuela makes some sense. Or at least an amusing tale.

    If it crushes companies, oh well. You make your bets. Tech industry does it all the time.

    My guess is 2Q oil bottoms out. Just a guess. I used to think 60 for WTI, now maybe 50.

    Good luck,

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Wellllll loookee there 69 $ oil

    by beavercleavver Nov 27, 2014 1:21 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Nov 27, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Sure it is. It ain't Thanksgiving everywhere.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New Name Competition

    by phildog Nov 19, 2014 1:16 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Nov 19, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    SeaYa, SeaSaw, SeaCeAndDesist, SeaSick, Sea3PO'd....etc.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    T. Boone Pickens says

    by donalhump Nov 19, 2014 11:24 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Nov 19, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    I just popped off of Real Clear Energy site, and there sits the T-Boone quote "Brent will be above $100 forever." that he spit out 6 months or so ago. Nice.

    Here in Texas, he canned a wind farm, but Texas is number one in wind (there's a multitude of jokes in that sentence....). So, nobody is perfect.

    I have been scoping the drillers for a rebound, but like last time I sniffed around, calling a bottom (or top) in oil is hazardous for your financial health.

    Any opinions on how close we are? I will throw out $60 bucks WTI, in 2Q15. That's obviously a SWAG. The input is worth what you paid me for, which is worth twice a T-Boone Pickens quote. He's hardly an unbiased source.

    Good luck to all,

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun by big_red_sun Oct 21, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Obviously IBM is facing issues in the systems biz and this is hurting software and services sell through. I have been concerned about that for some time.

    The issue I have is Ginny being this automaton that chants "execution issues" followed by cloud/mobile/security growing wildly. At what point does she get held accountable for "execution issues"? She has leaned on that comment over and over. It has to be miserable for the remaining troops there.

    Looks like a long time in the wilderness. Not sure what to do with few remaining shares. IBM has been good to me the last 20 yrs, but Ginny's Reign of Error has certainly put a dent in the last few years.

    Anyone think the systems biz is recoverable? If not, time to walk away.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The 10% Cut for Skills Deficit

    by yield_of_my_dreams Sep 18, 2014 11:47 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Sep 22, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    There is an opinion piece on the Yahoo news feed, source CNBC. It is entitled "Don't be Jerks.".

    Pretty good summary of the situation, so far as the optics. It's a poor way to tell folks to keep re-training. It should be done verbally, at semi-annual review or as part of standard coaching process. Not put in writing that can be posted outside. I don't see the cost being worth the benefit.

    It would be nice to see some more reporting on new Systems (Power 8, Open Power, new M Frame cycle). Instead, we see this. It does seem like IBM is in a bit of a messaging funk. Like him or loath him, Larry Ellison leaves no one in doubt he aims to win. I'd like to see some bare knuckles on winning share, for once, from the e-level folks.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ginni 'dear watson' rometty........

    by txtrader77 Sep 2, 2014 9:25 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Sep 2, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    Last I knew, hardware was less than 15% of revenue, and less than 7% of profits. So, hardware is not a big profit driver, and hopefully the losses have been stemmed by jettisoning X86 and trimming back Power. But, the Z and P (and I to lesser degree) help sell software and service.

    So, the hardware can be managed down, but I am really shocked by how fast P collapsed (AIX). From Enterprise Tech article on 2Q14 server sales:

    X86 machines accounted for a stunning 98.9 percent of shipments and 79.8 percent of revenues in the quarter.

    Ouch.

    I know that the cycles are end of cycle for Z, start of cycle for P/I, but IBM sure has had the systems business fade. They may have better compares, and own most of the 20% of non X86 revenue, and it may well be the most profitable, but dang. Ugly numbers, and I think it will impact software and service to a degree.

    Watson ain't gonna drive enough P sales. Better hope Open Power wins some converts, as IBM goes fabless or fab lite.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    9/2/14 Stock Buyback Announcement

    by big_red_sun Sep 2, 2014 4:14 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Sep 2, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    Talking to myself.

    I think the wording was awkward on the press release, or I just need coffee.

    Apparently shareholders approved up to 20% buyback, whilst BoD approved mgmt to buy 500 M. Which is less than the headroom the shareholders gave....maybe being conservative.

    On top of that Barrons tech trader had a title that said 20 B (think they mean 20%) buy back, which is absurd, must be a typo.

    Anyway, stock up 6.5 % after hours, we'll see if it lasts. Congrats.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

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