I think both your posts have merit.
On the sell side, their legacy business is getting hammered. They seem to have forgotten they are/were a systems company. So, the erosion is faster and more than it had to be.
On the buy side, we'll see if Watson is anything more than marketecture vs real architecture. I think Watson is real. They have built (well bought) analytics out nicely.
But, if you look at the last 3-4 years, it's pretty clear: shorts were right, longs were wrong. Scoreboard, baby. Now, a few years from now, I bet the longs are right.
Name calling, wow impressive. Facts are inconvenient things. You are portraying your hopes as facts. Facts speak for themselves. Profits are down over last several years. Fact.
On to ignore you go. You are completely fantasy based and ignorant. That makes you dangerous to listen to.
Well, to take your logic to it's conclusion, then maybe they should get out of every business they can until they have 99% margins. They can then shrink to 10 staffers....sure.
Folks like MSFT and GOOG are growing revenues while keeping/expanding margins. It can be done, it is done. IBM isn't doing it. So they get a lower valuation.
They bought back stock, under invested in the business, and missed several (or more) big transitions.... notably in server chips, virtualization (of x86), and cloud.
Oh, and by the way, they are coming in with lower and lower in profits the last few years. The "increased profits" has not happened. Maybe margins, to a small degree, but they have been on a profit downturn for the last 3 years. It can't be hidden. It's a fact. Go look at the yearly reports.
Light at the end of the tunnel type of thing is my best guess.
IBM is transitioning (and transitioning and transitioning....) towards software (and high end consulting services) and away from hardware and basic service fulfillment. Finally, there is enough revenue in "strategic imperatives" to move the needle a bit. So, the valuation of IBM might trend towards a software multiple rather than a hardware multiple.
I don't think Ginni will get canned, but I sure wish they'd hired a COO or some such to drive some revenue gains, etc in the medium term for the systems business. I like OpenPower, but jeez, the revenue declines are really getting old. That, combined with the endless drone from Ginni about "being pleased with strategic imperatives growth" each quarter really kinda makes you want to gag. It sounds stale at this point.
I also did not like that they, essentially, are coming in low on 2Q estimates and had to have that pointed out explicitly by an analyst. The way the CFO answered it came off as a bit condescending and slimy. Slimy is not something IBM can afford.
Just one guy's opinion.
If you are looking at Yahoo for dividend, it is out of date. They reduced dividend to 1 penny per quarter (probably to say they have never suspended a dividend) last quarter....
I believe the point ragingbull is trying to make is 78 M treasury shares are now under GE's control, effectively. Add that roughly 49% to the 9% and you get majority control.
It continues to amaze me that anyone puts any trust in GE. My opinion only.
That' a real good summary. If they even come close to not puking all over themselves on revenue, then the tone the market takes on the stock changes a bunch. May not be fair, but there it is.
If they do keep dropping revenue, and roll out the same old tap dance (sad, really) of strategic imperatives growth, lookit what Watson might, someday, do, etc, then the price will probably get spanked 5% or more.
Cloud sure caught IBM with their pants down, and they were so slow to react to it, it is almost mind boggling. Hopefully they can save the systems business, or at least stabilize it, versus the meltdown they have suffered over time. They spent the money on buybacks. It looked good at the time. Just sayin'....
That said, give them credit for getting out of PCs and hard drives. Have you seen the recent Seagate announcement? Hopefully that does not foretell the entire high end systems business, but just the shift from spinning rust to SSDs.
Perhaps. But I think the primary reason is to ride out a lower for longer on oil.
I have been looking at these stocks on and off for going on 2 years. Basically, I think they are value traps.
Much of the UDW industry (ORIG, PACD, SDRL, etc) will likely go ashcan if oil stays in a 25-50 dollar band for a couple more years. Debt for equity swaps, BK, dilutions, etc will happen at an increasing pace. Fracking sure changed the game.
So, you have a segment sitting on lots of new capacity with rigs that are application specific, not many new contracts, and cost money to keep warm or cold stacked. A service segment selling into a commodity business on a down cycle. Hard to find a less attractive investment. Contrarians unite!
But, if oil turns around on a sustained basis above 70'ish a barrel, boy howdy, you might make a bunch o money. Personally, if oil rallies quickly over next couple years, I think these will rebound nicely, but if it does not, the true winners will likely be SLB and HAL, as they can weather it...then they'll but what they want out of BK.
Okay, now that was funny. I would add Vienna in the springtime just to add to the romance that the smell of petroleum always brings.
Well, good for you. I did not pull the trigger, but glad for you. Still diddling around with my Mar/April timing theory, but it sure has taken a hit the last few weeks..
Man, if you doubled your money or so on ATW or MRO, you might think to take some off the table and play on house money. But, I am pretty conservative, and I missed the timing, so not sure why I would give you advice on the timing aspect.
Anyhow, happy Spring up there. It's only, what, like 3 more months away? I planted tomatoes, okra, green beans, etc this weekend. Of course, by late June, they'all be dead...
In the short term, yes. I wonder if Aubrey literally hitting the wall means one less witness for CHK. Cynical me. Sad way to end a really remarkable career. Fracking was not invented by him, but he sure drove it to widespread use. Changed the whole game.
That said, I have been holding off for so long on oil, I figure I wind up not buying at all. Picking a bottom is generally a fools errand, and I have been on that errand for about a year and a half. At least I have not lost money.
I kind of traipse by the off shore boards now, on occasion. I don't think they are invest-able, for lack of a better term. Not a short at these levels, but I don't see a long case with oil sub-50, which is what OPEC is supposedly calling the new target price. Lotta capacity, etc.
But, I will say I am amazed at how much the equity sales and other dilution forms are being used in the energy business in general, with the bankers hanging in there. I guess they really don't have a lot of choice, huh?
That, and the low interest rates has folks chasing any type of return. Kind of reminds me of sub-prime, but that all worked out well in the end, didn't it....ha! Some folks with the knowledge and intestinal fortitude to buy Citi, Wells Fargo, etc at the bottom did real real well...others, not so much. We'll see.
I still think there is one more big blow out on oil price, so still trying to time the bottom. Back to the fool part of it...
Look up presentations by EPE, MRO, DVN, etc. Do the work yourself, don't be so ignorant and lazy. Geez, you're hardly in a position to tell anyone what to do. Absurd.
And thus the off shore will die before anyone else, save oil sands.
At least they have not forgotten how to make things. IBM seems to have forgotten the M in IBM. Apple has not. They still make hardware and software that work together really well. So does IBM on larger systems, but boy, howdy, they sure let the systems business slip. And it flows right into software sales and service revenues.
Ginni focusing so much on Watson could be construed as an admission of such. It is one new thing that ties together systems, software, and service....a faint echo of the glory days. I hope it works for them.
What's with the iPhone concern? Apple is way, way more than that. The iPhone is a dominant revenue generator, true. For now.
IBM is kind of a one trick pony on mainframes if you really want to look at it.....even after all these years. It shows in their revenue, lately...
HP already collapsed and is fading. They will be dead long before Apple gets done harvesting profits from iThingy 1x....
Apple would love to have many of IBMs enterprise assets....maybe not all of them, but a good chunk of them. And they can afford it.
Anyone who bids 170 or so can own IBM, and then piece it out. Low probability, but not zero. IBM shareholders, by and large, will sell to the highest bidder. And the bid is 134 right now...
I understand, appreciate civil response. S curves are hard to predict, if they happen at all. That said, the Saudis are not stupid, as you say.
It's also in their interests to downplay electric vehicles, as they don't have a dominant position in electricity (NG, Nuke, Wind, Solar, Hydro feed that. Zero percent of our electricity is oil burn in the USA), do they? They are a one trick pony feeding vehicles that are turning China into a smog bank....we at least limit the pollution, if not the consumption.
They may be trying to get as much oil out of the ground as they can before CAFE standards (climate change, etc) in the US and electric vehicles permanently impair oil prices. That was the point of the article, I think. Heck, just hybrid electric/gas makes a lot of sense, especially for acceleration off the line as well as fuel efficiency. It ain't just Prius drivers. All sports cars will have electric components at some point. Can't beat the power curve on those....
The Saudis may be thinking oil stays lower for longer, as in permanently. I kinda doubt it, but it is not a zero probability...
That possibility has been raised by the contrarians on the board. Shale is hurting too, but lowering their costs. COP said they were bailing on off shore and going towards fracking....out and out said it.
If oil stays range bound at 25-60'ish another year or two, Canadian Sands are gone, likely North Sea is gone, a lot of deep water is going to reorganize, and a bunch of shale will fail. Or dilute. Loot at HES, DVN, MRO all in rapid order on the E&P side...
On the other hand, maybe Venezuela cracks or someone else goes unstable. It sure doesn't look like demand is going to drive a v shaped recovery. Demand should slowly get oil back up, in all likelihood (anyone see the Bloomberg article on the impact of electric cars hitting the S curve of adoption....that is a dreary outlook for oil long term), but who knows.
But, anything dramatic seems like it has gotta come from supply side....hard to calculate that. If you are investing on that, you are gambling, imho. It makes a market. Saudis sure aren't blinking.