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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

big_red_sun 81 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 10:56 AM Member since: Mar 27, 2012
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  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 24, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    The articles I have read on earthquakes have to do with deep well water injection, a byproduct of fracking, not the fracking itself. There are work arounds being looked at, from not using liquids at all to frack, to recycling the water, etc etc.

    The frackers, whatever you think of them, can at least be credited with near endless ingenuity at advancing the technology, cost reducing, and coming up with solutions to bottle necks.

    I still think more of the off shore drillers die before the onshore ones do. Market seems to agree. We'll see.

    Lotta directionally drilled holes in the ground right now, waiting to be fracked as oil prices creep back up. Gonna cap oil prices for a few years, most likely. We'll see how the day rates and debt loads go for these guys. Some of the frackers have the same problem.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 23, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    More buyers than sellers.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    It's Alive!

    by defilip1 Apr 23, 2015 10:17 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 23, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    Or from "Young Frankenstein" (Mel Brooks flick) -- "He's going to be very popular." " Woof."

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    IBM = Kodak

    by optimist01 Apr 21, 2015 3:15 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 23, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Gee, you are so clever. Zero applies to your personality I presume?

    I call it electronics because a lot of people call it the tech industry. To me, the tech industry includes biotech, medical tech, all sorts of tech (oil industry for instance).

    The point stands. The electronics industry (power and digital/analog) used to outgrow GDP by 2-5 times in almost all segments. Not anymore. Many segments have slowed way down.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    IBM = Kodak

    by optimist01 Apr 21, 2015 3:15 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 22, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    Fair enough. I respect your outlook. If revs come, PE will expand. Hopefully the Z cycle is big, and Open Power goes forward. My point is that hardware drives more software and services than people generally realize.

    Big purchase is risky, but I think the consolidation coming in the industry is going to force some of it (semiconductor sector is well along on this). So far, IBM has done the opposite -- sells stuff off, almost all of it hardware. I think it is low odds on a big buy, as IBM stays well away from that as they look for bolt on stuff they can turn the sales force onto, and sell more software....all the buys are software, except PwC.

    HP has just been poorly run for a long long time. I can't believe folks even compare them to IBM. Maybe IBM even picks up some biz once the HP spin out goes through. The enterprise side of HP looks like hot garbage to me. Stinky.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    IBM = Kodak

    by optimist01 Apr 21, 2015 3:15 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 22, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    IBM was a lot like Kodak, 30 yrs ago, when they did not want mini's to undercut mainframes, and then micros (PCs) to undercut those. Most of the folks that make analogies like this are older folks with an ax to grind. Pension complainers, etc.

    Your first two points are well known. The third sure has a lot of hype too. I think the systems biz is heading downhill faster than hoped, and there is a lot of software and service tied to that. The cloud is having an impact, for sure. But, Intel also is, regardless of cloud. They have taken over an awful lot of the data center with their chips. That is one place IBM moved way too slow to address, and the Kodak comparison applies a bit.

    Finally, let's all face it. The electronics industry is maturing, IBM is big, and the growth days are over with. They are doing what they can to morph to software, where all the money really is. It's a value stock, or a value trap, depending on your industry view.

    Eventually, they do a big buyout trying to use treasury stock to move the needle, is my guess. Probably a wrong guess, but what else is left? Just grinding it out, which is probably what will happen.

    They return 10-15% a year for a few years, if all goes right. Of course, after the last couple years, that is just playing catch-up. I think their PE stays compressed well under the S&P. If it does not , then it is likely because the S&P heads way down to meet IBM.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 21, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    Pay no attention to that main behind the curtain, I am the all seeing all knowing Wizard of Odd!

    Run Toto Run!

    Ugh, you have nothing better to do than try to scare retail investors on a message board? Sad.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Beat by .11c!!!!

    by altairman56 Apr 20, 2015 4:06 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 20, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    Which means when revenue begins growing, there is much upside. Market is discounting future, not right now.

    IBM will never grow revenue more than low singles (if at all) due to sheer size. But, they might buy someone. We'll see.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 6, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    Well, the stock has been headed up, so you never know. I can't make heads or tails of it, so sitting on my hands, like I have been all along.

    Maybe some of the majors are pulling out of GoM, and if you are a service company that is aligned with one leaving, ouch. But, CVX is saying they are committed to the Permian (I know this is on land), so maybe having long term assets in stable (so far) areas of the world is their model. Maybe that helps PACD? I know DVN focuses on having a footprint in stable/friendly areas.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Accounting For Stock Buy Backs

    by wixiewaxy Mar 31, 2015 10:23 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 2, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    PS: I wish IBM would grow a pair and buy EMC.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Accounting For Stock Buy Backs

    by wixiewaxy Mar 31, 2015 10:23 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 2, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    True, but they feed that off the buybacks as they go. The share count has gone way down, and the last time I checked, it was something like 5-10% being siphoned off for stock options to e-level and down.

    The compensation, looked at individually, certainly borders on tacky. But obscene, like other companies? No.

    There is an article today saying some equity folks have looked at pressuring IBM, and that IBM has hired a PR firm to help fight the effort if it appears. But, it sounds like the sharks passed by. They look for easy meat.

    IBM is a real hard target, based on a lot of factors. Most of these equity guys are looking to acquire, cut expenses, sell or spin-off. Try doing that with something IBM's size that sells into data centers that crave continuity. Good luck.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 1, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    There is a Barrons blog blurb out yesterday or day before saying there goes GoM. Might want to look at it. I tried to put part of the url here, but the message was deleted/blocked, it appears. Good luck, BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Accounting For Stock Buy Backs

    by wixiewaxy Mar 31, 2015 10:23 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 1, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    They may keep the stock as treasury shares to prevent a hostile take-over or to re-issue if they want to at some time. They could sell them, they could buy another company (EMC?) with treasury stock, etc. It gives them some insurance in a couple of ways -- management keeps control.

    It sure plays heck on Book Value or Equity, etc.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    future 2015 PACD stock reaction

    by jackmaster20 Mar 30, 2015 11:18 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 30, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    My opinion only. I'd say reaction to both those items would be negative, short term.

    Per gasmans comment, a longer term deal with CVX might be short term positive, or even long term postiive. The long term part of it is at what day rate they charge. If it is a low rate, maybe not so positive longer term.

    Maybe I am being overly cautious, as I keep lurking with no position, but contract or no contract, it would seem that the rates being charged are what are critical in the longer run. Even if stuff gets retired, the leading edge rigs may suffer from lower rates for long enough that it kills economic profits.

    So, contracts should mean survival, which is cut one. Cut two is do they make a decent profit in the next couple years. Market seems to vote no, but that might be wrong....so I lurk.

    I still think it comes back to (mainly) the price of oil going back up over 70 dollars (or so) a barrel for a good while. Rigs being scrapped should continue, but the bleeding on day rates might cease.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    3-30 Signs of a Takeover?

    by wallofrocks Mar 30, 2015 10:01 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 30, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    Maybe wrong for today, but I think your logic is sound.

    I have owned ADI for many many years, sold some for a good profit, hanging on to some. Good company, whether anyone takes them out or not. They bought out Hittite Microwave last year, so they might be an acquirer, vs acquired.

    But, never say never. Good luck to you.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    3-30 Signs of a Takeover?

    by wallofrocks Mar 30, 2015 10:01 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 30, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Barclays just upgraded to PT of 70, on 3D Touch potential with Apple. That might be it too. I thought the run might be the consolidation theme in semi's too (the ALTR/INTC) thing. I dunno, ADI is pretty big. Maybe TXN tries to take them out?

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 27, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    Kraft and IBM have headwinds in the US. Buffet is buying them for their overseas opportunities as much as anything else. The growth is not in the US.

    The whole organics thing is a very serious competitive threat as it gains traction. But, let's face it, most folks won't shop at Whole Foods, aka, Whole Paycheck. But, IBM doesn't sell groceries.

    Buffet is a GARP player as much as anything at this point. The earnings will come from overseas, not so much the US. If they come at all for either IBM or Kraft. But, the price of both is pretty reasonable, so not a lot of risk (on the surface).

    The next few quarters of IBM on the hardware side will say a lot about prospects. New cycles on Z and P should drive some good biz. If it doesn't, that will definitely show diminished near term prospect for IBM. If Open Power can blunt ARM, then deflate INTC profits, then it gets interesting.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    buffet bought GE back in 06 for $34

    by aud802009 Mar 16, 2015 10:36 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 18, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    He's not buying stock, he is buying a piece of the business. What the stock trades at is of almost no interest to Buffett in the short term. He's said that over and over.

    So, he will think like an owner, and decide if IBM is right track or wrong track to producing real economic returns to shareholders. Which they have, over the long term. Put a 20 year chart in place comparing IBM vs S&P 500. IBM, even after the horrid last 2 years, outpaces it two to one.

    Given the relatively conservative valuation vs some balance sheet leverage, he may choose to wait. IBM is morphing to being a software company. Never the less, IBM is being valued as a hardware company. They may not have the moat they used to have, but they do have some tools to work with.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    buffet bought GE back in 06 for $34

    by aud802009 Mar 16, 2015 10:36 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 18, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    Speaking of cloud, etc, anyone got any guesses on how attractive/powerful the current mainframe cycle is likely to be. The original cloud -- kinda.

    The next few quarters on systems business will be interesting to watch, and may prove Buffet right or wrong.

    Between Z, P (and i), and Open Power (the real wildcard, as the new P8 has little endian, and is aimed at scale-out as well as scale up), something like 80% of IBM's customers buy all three general buckets - hardware, software, service. So, the systems may be only 10% of revenue, but they sure are important. The Z and P look to be in secular decline (not just product cycle), which is what market is betting.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 16, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Cool beans, thanks for the response.

    There have been countless articles over the Saudi's aiming to hurt: Iran, Russia, Frackers, roughly in that order. So, this could go on for a while. It may be the Venezuela's and Nigeria's that go unstable first. Maybe Iraq, though there might be a few other factors at work with that mess.

    I am thinking a bit the opposite on you from on holes drilled. Maybe wrong longer term, or even shorter term, but throwing it out there.

    The UDW holes, like Mainframes, will chug along spewing out tons, and if you have the data/biz, it makes sense -- always on at massive volume. Scale up.

    The frackers, more like distributed computing. Cheap little bits, maybe not optimal as far as useage load. Scale out.

    Which one won in the computer industry? Generally, scale out.

    It's just an analogy, granted, but right now, more oil is not what is needed. More demand is. Until Saudis influence the supply side, it's up to demand. We'll see.

    BRS

    Sentiment: Hold

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