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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

big_red_sun 26 posts  |  Last Activity: May 5, 2016 9:51 AM Member since: Mar 27, 2012
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  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Feb 26, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    He's just doing what executives here would do, if they could. Google up John Rockefeller. Same playbook, as you likely know.

    At least he showed up and did not BS around. They are a sovereign nation (that we armed, but it's a big ole world....) sitting on enough reserves, the terminals guarded by Saudi elite and wired to blow, that would send the world into a depression if cut off. Nice work if you can get it. They don't care if we like them or not.

    Me, I'm just stooging around looking for the capitulation. But, fracking really has changed the game, so I really wonder if oil will ever really run much past 60 again. What does that do to off shore. That's what holds me off.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Feb 26, 2016 2:11 PM Flag

    Well, say what you want, Gas has called it right. I know he rubs it in and times it, but he took a lot of flack a couple years ago. And those that gave it to him are gone. Enough said about G'Man.

    I'd agree that the short end of it is a bit long in the tooth. Whether we snap back to a bull market, that's another story. I remember the late 80's and 90's here in Texas. Some parts of it were not real pretty....

    It will be interesting to see how oil goes over the balance of the year. At 25, 30, 35, even 40, all three: off shore, frack, and sands are hurting. I am stating the blindingly obvious that if oil runs back over 60 on a sustained basis, off shore and fracking will rally a bunch. Sands, I don't know....I think the already developed stuff continues, but anything new....years away. My nickels worth of input, and probably over priced at that.


  • Reply to

    ORIG awarded new contract....

    by daicheng0722 Feb 25, 2016 12:12 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Feb 26, 2016 2:52 PM Flag

    Yeah, sorry, not trying to take shots per se. Apologies to folks if they think that.

    I'm a bottom fisher, and always look for the worst case. Don't mean to bum folks out more. But, man, I hate to see folks going off into fantasy land, not good for them.

    Now, if Ohio has financial background, I'd sure like to hear the scenarios on how ORIG deals with debt, etc etc. I'd learn something there, if that is his/her area of expertise.

    Finally, I am an engineer. So, what do engineers use for birth control? Their personality.

    Happy weekend all y'all.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Feb 26, 2016 5:16 PM Flag

    I never did track the SDRL Gasman portion of it., so that may a fair critique, but not in the scope of what I am interested in. I don't really care if Gasman was right or wrong on SDRL, as this is the RIG board. He at least made some cogent arguments a few quarters ago on the prospects of RIG and offshore, instead of just spamming. And, he was largely correct, in my estimate. 170 down to 8 over the last 5 yrs or so. Ouch.

    In any event, fracking is not all one cost, and varies by play....but so does off shore vary by play, frankly. So, I kinda bucket them for lack of a better solution.

    I think the CEO of COP said they were going to fracking vs off shore, like others. He used terms like "faster payback", more measured plays, etc. But he means cherry picking the fracking stuff. If that goes on long enough, a lot off of offshore common stocks (not the rigs) will be gone. So will the weaker frackers. But the oil will still be there, waiting for a price to pull it out. And, with fracking, you know it will return on essentially every single well drilled.

    I have looked at CHK and others, still kinda circling. I have MRO and DVN on the list, a few others. The degree of debt puts me off some, but where there is risk, there is return potential. DVN doing a share offering, like HES did, certainly is an eye opener.

    Besta luck,


  • Reply to

    apple thinking of buying IBM

    by iq220dude Feb 26, 2016 9:18 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Feb 27, 2016 8:47 AM Flag

    Maybe so, but they can pay cash.

  • Reply to

    apple thinking of buying IBM

    by iq220dude Feb 26, 2016 9:18 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Feb 28, 2016 8:06 PM Flag

    It might go 3-5 % above whatever offer gets made, if it happens. IBM won't double off any takeover offer.


  • Reply to

    Two reasons to like IBM

    by ghetto_trash Feb 29, 2016 2:44 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Feb 29, 2016 3:16 PM Flag

    Probably the most lucid post I've seen on this board this year. Concise too.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 1, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    That possibility has been raised by the contrarians on the board. Shale is hurting too, but lowering their costs. COP said they were bailing on off shore and going towards fracking....out and out said it.

    If oil stays range bound at 25-60'ish another year or two, Canadian Sands are gone, likely North Sea is gone, a lot of deep water is going to reorganize, and a bunch of shale will fail. Or dilute. Loot at HES, DVN, MRO all in rapid order on the E&P side...

    On the other hand, maybe Venezuela cracks or someone else goes unstable. It sure doesn't look like demand is going to drive a v shaped recovery. Demand should slowly get oil back up, in all likelihood (anyone see the Bloomberg article on the impact of electric cars hitting the S curve of adoption....that is a dreary outlook for oil long term), but who knows.

    But, anything dramatic seems like it has gotta come from supply side....hard to calculate that. If you are investing on that, you are gambling, imho. It makes a market. Saudis sure aren't blinking.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 1, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    I understand, appreciate civil response. S curves are hard to predict, if they happen at all. That said, the Saudis are not stupid, as you say.

    It's also in their interests to downplay electric vehicles, as they don't have a dominant position in electricity (NG, Nuke, Wind, Solar, Hydro feed that. Zero percent of our electricity is oil burn in the USA), do they? They are a one trick pony feeding vehicles that are turning China into a smog bank....we at least limit the pollution, if not the consumption.

    They may be trying to get as much oil out of the ground as they can before CAFE standards (climate change, etc) in the US and electric vehicles permanently impair oil prices. That was the point of the article, I think. Heck, just hybrid electric/gas makes a lot of sense, especially for acceleration off the line as well as fuel efficiency. It ain't just Prius drivers. All sports cars will have electric components at some point. Can't beat the power curve on those....

    The Saudis may be thinking oil stays lower for longer, as in permanently. I kinda doubt it, but it is not a zero probability...


  • Reply to

    apple thinking of buying IBM

    by iq220dude Feb 26, 2016 9:18 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 1, 2016 1:02 PM Flag

    What's with the iPhone concern? Apple is way, way more than that. The iPhone is a dominant revenue generator, true. For now.

    IBM is kind of a one trick pony on mainframes if you really want to look at it.....even after all these years. It shows in their revenue, lately...

    HP already collapsed and is fading. They will be dead long before Apple gets done harvesting profits from iThingy 1x....

    Apple would love to have many of IBMs enterprise assets....maybe not all of them, but a good chunk of them. And they can afford it.

    Anyone who bids 170 or so can own IBM, and then piece it out. Low probability, but not zero. IBM shareholders, by and large, will sell to the highest bidder. And the bid is 134 right now...


  • Reply to

    apple thinking of buying IBM

    by iq220dude Feb 26, 2016 9:18 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 1, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    At least they have not forgotten how to make things. IBM seems to have forgotten the M in IBM. Apple has not. They still make hardware and software that work together really well. So does IBM on larger systems, but boy, howdy, they sure let the systems business slip. And it flows right into software sales and service revenues.

    Ginni focusing so much on Watson could be construed as an admission of such. It is one new thing that ties together systems, software, and service....a faint echo of the glory days. I hope it works for them.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 2, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    And thus the off shore will die before anyone else, save oil sands.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 2, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    Look up presentations by EPE, MRO, DVN, etc. Do the work yourself, don't be so ignorant and lazy. Geez, you're hardly in a position to tell anyone what to do. Absurd.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 7, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    In the short term, yes. I wonder if Aubrey literally hitting the wall means one less witness for CHK. Cynical me. Sad way to end a really remarkable career. Fracking was not invented by him, but he sure drove it to widespread use. Changed the whole game.

    That said, I have been holding off for so long on oil, I figure I wind up not buying at all. Picking a bottom is generally a fools errand, and I have been on that errand for about a year and a half. At least I have not lost money.

    I kind of traipse by the off shore boards now, on occasion. I don't think they are invest-able, for lack of a better term. Not a short at these levels, but I don't see a long case with oil sub-50, which is what OPEC is supposedly calling the new target price. Lotta capacity, etc.

    But, I will say I am amazed at how much the equity sales and other dilution forms are being used in the energy business in general, with the bankers hanging in there. I guess they really don't have a lot of choice, huh?

    That, and the low interest rates has folks chasing any type of return. Kind of reminds me of sub-prime, but that all worked out well in the end, didn't it....ha! Some folks with the knowledge and intestinal fortitude to buy Citi, Wells Fargo, etc at the bottom did real real well...others, not so much. We'll see.

    I still think there is one more big blow out on oil price, so still trying to time the bottom. Back to the fool part of it...

    Besta luck!


  • Reply to


    by carpinus1 Mar 5, 2016 1:56 PM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 7, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    Well, good for you. I did not pull the trigger, but glad for you. Still diddling around with my Mar/April timing theory, but it sure has taken a hit the last few weeks..

    Man, if you doubled your money or so on ATW or MRO, you might think to take some off the table and play on house money. But, I am pretty conservative, and I missed the timing, so not sure why I would give you advice on the timing aspect.

    Anyhow, happy Spring up there. It's only, what, like 3 more months away? I planted tomatoes, okra, green beans, etc this weekend. Of course, by late June, they'all be dead...


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Mar 23, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Okay, now that was funny. I would add Vienna in the springtime just to add to the romance that the smell of petroleum always brings.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 15, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    Perhaps. But I think the primary reason is to ride out a lower for longer on oil.

    I have been looking at these stocks on and off for going on 2 years. Basically, I think they are value traps.

    Much of the UDW industry (ORIG, PACD, SDRL, etc) will likely go ashcan if oil stays in a 25-50 dollar band for a couple more years. Debt for equity swaps, BK, dilutions, etc will happen at an increasing pace. Fracking sure changed the game.

    So, you have a segment sitting on lots of new capacity with rigs that are application specific, not many new contracts, and cost money to keep warm or cold stacked. A service segment selling into a commodity business on a down cycle. Hard to find a less attractive investment. Contrarians unite!

    But, if oil turns around on a sustained basis above 70'ish a barrel, boy howdy, you might make a bunch o money. Personally, if oil rallies quickly over next couple years, I think these will rebound nicely, but if it does not, the true winners will likely be SLB and HAL, as they can weather it...then they'll but what they want out of BK.


  • Reply to

    Predictions for Monday?

    by nozupforyou Apr 14, 2016 11:33 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 15, 2016 12:03 PM Flag

    That' a real good summary. If they even come close to not puking all over themselves on revenue, then the tone the market takes on the stock changes a bunch. May not be fair, but there it is.

    If they do keep dropping revenue, and roll out the same old tap dance (sad, really) of strategic imperatives growth, lookit what Watson might, someday, do, etc, then the price will probably get spanked 5% or more.

    Cloud sure caught IBM with their pants down, and they were so slow to react to it, it is almost mind boggling. Hopefully they can save the systems business, or at least stabilize it, versus the meltdown they have suffered over time. They spent the money on buybacks. It looked good at the time. Just sayin'....

    That said, give them credit for getting out of PCs and hard drives. Have you seen the recent Seagate announcement? Hopefully that does not foretell the entire high end systems business, but just the shift from spinning rust to SSDs.


    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    GE has more than 50% control of ORIG now.

    by ragingbull_si Apr 15, 2016 9:58 AM
    big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 15, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    I believe the point ragingbull is trying to make is 78 M treasury shares are now under GE's control, effectively. Add that roughly 49% to the 9% and you get majority control.

    It continues to amaze me that anyone puts any trust in GE. My opinion only.


  • big_red_sun big_red_sun Apr 15, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    If you are looking at Yahoo for dividend, it is out of date. They reduced dividend to 1 penny per quarter (probably to say they have never suspended a dividend) last quarter....


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