8K filed on Jan 29th, just saw it.
Snipping from 8K:
Item 8.01 Other Events
The Company also announced that its Board of Directors has eliminated the quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per Class A Ordinary Share, effective immediately. Additionally, during the fourth quarter of 2015, the Company retired approximately $98 million of outstanding senior notes. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
I view the dividend cuts as positive, as it is prudent in this environment. Also, it fits my bias as I am not investing for the income, but for capital appreciation if things turn around.
Besta luck, still circling myself. I figure RDC, NE, then ESV....if any.
I figure if oil bottoms out into March/April, I'll buy some MRO and DVN for sure, still hedging on off shore drillers. I've even looked at a few off shore plays that are not strictly drillers, as there still are platforms to be maintained and serviced out there. I am looking at OII and, believe it or not, BRS.
In 2014, he said oil would not go below $100. He's hardly an unbiased observer -- he misses to the high side very consistently -- go figure. So , he's certainly not accurate. Then again, neither is anyone else.
Oil may well go back up a good chunk later in the year. But, even oil at $60 is not going to bring a lot of profits back to the off shore drillers. The profits in this sector are likely minimal for the next several years.
Even if a black swan event drives oil back near $100, the off shore projects take time to re-plan, re-bid, and re-start. Meantime, frackers start poking holes again.
Sure. They cut it out of ORIG and other drillers. You seem to use a bunch of different, but familiar names to post the same drivel over and over.
That likely means you don't know what you are looking at. Read the fleet status report, that's what this stock, and the whole sector is trading on.
I am looking at it. Their growth has slowed to basically zero, revenue wise, which is why the PE is so low. But 6-7? Come on....
I think I buy a couple hundred shares at some point soon. I think they pop a little, but then maybe fade a bit, as most biotech investors are growth oriented, not value. But, this management team has proven itself over and over.
Point is, I don't think there is a ton of downside, and some considerable upside over next few years. Oil, there is considerable upside, but still some downside to come...
Look at ATW, down after a reasonably good report. That's because the off shores are trading on future contracts, and that looks pretty grisly...
Thanks for input, it helps me frame what to buy. Now, can you tell me when? Exactly, please. Ha! Besta luck, still stooging around looking at them...
Wow. Try mutual funds, more your speed.
Any newbie that quotes book value as a metric is usually amusing for a few posts.
The book value and bonds are related very simply: the bonds are now being discounted because the debt owed cannot be completely recovered / collected by re-possessing the rigs.
They are not general purpose tools like computers, trucks, etc, that can be re-sold upon repossession for some other use. They are application specific, near custom built tools. There is no demand for the rigs right now, with an oversupply.
So book is meaningless, and bond values mean quite a bit.
You should be using crayons, not a keyboard.
Well, apparently there was a 4th option. They did an offering and diluted. So, it's just not that simple. The oil folks are wily as can be about surviving, which I generally mean as a complement.
Why folks would buy the offering, dunno. Loot at ORIG doing an offering at 7 bucks a share about a year ago... who in their right mind bought that one....but they did. ORIG is under a buck now.
If the the Saudis keep pumping along with rest, the net effect is that returns will be poor to negative, which seems to be your general point. The only thing that really makes E&P's well is higher oil prices. That's up to the Saudis. They sure are bringing the pain, and don't seem likely to blink.
Even if HES got bought out, I'd imagine it will be a stock for stock deal, at low prices for each. I doubt it happens. I also doubt BK. Somewhere in the dull, grinding middle.
Yeah, wasn't really trying to play "nail you", apologies if it came out that way. I like that you put out options at least for your bearish position. I suppose there could be three options, and you group share dilution and selling assets under the other groups, as they are partial liquidation and partial sale/buyouts....
I have been lurking for some time now on oil, having owned DVN in the 2001-2005 timeframe by them buying up one of my holdings. Complete luck. I had looked at off shore drillers right after the Y2K bust, and that led me to what I bought, as the drillers are too risky to me.
Fast forward 10 plus years, and I started in late 2014 with the off shore drillers again. Glad I passed, to put it mildly. I should have my head examined.
I then migrated back towards DVN, MRO, etc, thinking consolidation is coming. That is why I am now looking at HES. It is instructive. There are all sorts of levers (debt to equity conversions like HERO did), print more shares and sell, etc etc. Common shareholders are last in line.
Consolidation surely is coming, but at what price level? I figured maybe March April would be washout time, but if the Saudis hold the hammed down for balance of the year, boy howdy, it's gonna get ugly.
Besta luck to everyone, regardless of position. It makes a market.
Supply side: Middle East pumping as hard as they can. Russia and Venezuela too. Frackers keep pumping because most have to or the marginal cost is worth while. Offshore may be dead on the exploratory side, but there are plenty of fields being brought on line/developed still.
Demand side: China -- slowing from 8-9% growth to something like 6%, if you believe any of the numbers -- that's the big one on supply side. CAFE standards in the US, diesel/electric (negligible, but dangerous to long term destruction), etc etc.
Most of what articles I can find say we are about 1.5 M per day oversupplied. So, not like the 7 M or so back in the 80's. So, any tweak to supply or demand could really push oil back up quickly. My nickel bet (still holding off on putting the nickel down....) is that oil washes out on price late 1Q into 2Q, then starts to climb.
But, it won't go back above 60-70 for a loooong time. Fracking will cap that. I know folks say a bunch of frackers will go out of business, but the survivors will just buy up the leases. The outrageous price of oil over the last 10 yrs (and, from a long term 100 yr perspective, oil has been outrageously expensive) has done it's work -- stimulate supply. And hence, oil goes back down.
As far as off shore, I dunno, I think a lot of them are cooked. Still looking at NE, RDC, ESV, and maybe ATW. But, I can't say I am really crazy optimistic on any of them. Have been lurking over a year, and glad I did not bite....thus far. It's a sickness with me to ambulance chase like this.
They split off MPC in June 2011, roughly.
Comparing the two eras does not appear terribly relevant, as it is a different company now.
able to be foreseen or predicted.
"the situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future"
Devil's advocate question (and I am still not buying off shore....ho hum...same as it ever was):
How close do you think Venezuela might be to chaos? Not that Libya and Iraq are real stable either.... but Venezuela, according to the OPEC web site, sits on 25% of OPEC proven reserves, and 20% of the whole world.
That's the trigger I can see for oil upside, but not sure how to do those odds...I can't see a sudden demand shock, but I could imagine a supply shock of some type...maybe not organized by OPEC, but by instability...
So, he spent two weeks pay on this. Not that big a bet given he earns 1.88 Million per year in salary. But, he is not looking to throw it away, so I'd say small positive.
I tend to agree with you that 2nd half might be better than thought.
A lot of pessimism out there right now, which tends to mark a bottom Lots of investment houses, the EIA, the IEA, etc etc all saying lower for longer or much lower still.
Doom and gloom, a contrarian bottom fishers friend...my nickle on timing is Mar/April capitulation, based on earnings and reserve revaluations in the US. But, just a guess....
Yeah, I'm the kiss of death lately, huh? Same story as a lot of them -- cancel the dividend, and whack....I read through their earnings announcement, and what puts me off is the use of "adjusted" (non-GAAP) earnings. Plenty of companies do that, but it always smells funny....
It is difficult to make odds on it, but if you take mid 2 million barrels a day off the market, we go from 1.5 M surplus (supposedly) to a shortage. It's not a huge percentage swing, unlike in the 80's into the 90's. Onwards through the fog....