Howdy from Texas,
How about turning that observation on it's head? I don't see a non-driller taking out a driller. Just my opinion.
Is ESV in a good enough position to become an acquirer, vs the acquired? Just for the sake of discussion, what if they:
1. Dropped the dividend.
2. Announced what portion of payouts would go to servicing debt/de-leveraging.
3. Look at selective take outs of smaller niche players, maybe in UDW area, or where they need presence. No names, not pumping any stock in particular, but I am looking out at the smaller riskier ones, and some are now trading at very low book values, etc. Of course, if nobody winds up wanting those ships, then book don't mean much. And they are all leveraged quite a bit. That is what makes this interesting to me.
In any event, if you really want risk, go buy one of the UDWs. If you want less, maybe ESV or other majors. If you want even less risk, a fund of oil field services. Just my thoughts.
Does this make sense to anyone? Flame away if you feel the need, not looking to date any of you. But, if you have a reasoned response, would appreciate it.
Best of luck all,
Talking to myself. Sorry.
I understand that some of the UDWs might go ashcan, and that ESV or others could buy out of receivership. They could also buy indvidual ships. Oversupply seems to be the issue, but is UDW at all insulated, vs Jack Ups, etc? That might make some the entire companies targets.
Why do I feel like I am whistling past the graveyard looking at these type of stocks? They are speculative.
No position, been watching land drillers from here in Texas for ~4 yrs. Did not buy last time around, and watched them triple or so. Now most going right back down to about where they started.
I had kind of culled it to : HP, PTEN, PDS, and NBR as the top 4 "pure" land drillers. I know that is simplistic, as some frack service, etc. The order is kind of in sequence of who I think is best in class, 2nd, etc.
They all seem to be stressing AC rigs, pad drilling, etc etc. But, if day rates keep collapsing, they start to stack rigs and write stuff off, as efficiency can't completely resuscitate demand.
Is book value really a good metric? What good is book value if nobody wants the equipment? Might it be a fraction of book value that should be a target for downside?
I ask because I did not buy first time around because it is so hard to value these guys.
Thanks for polite reply.
I was thinking they would all trade under book at some point, HP still at a "premium" to the others, but all
Called out HERO and RDC as most exposed in 1H15 to contracts rolling off. Partial link below if Yahoo does not strip it.
So, they have 2 new ships (for a total of 8 according to web page) coming on line. One is the Meltem (Meltdown in gasman's tweak), the other Zonda.
So, they are adding 33% additional to their fleet right now. Are those two likely to get contracts at all? Or better put, at economic terms?
I read gasman as saying anyone scrapping rigs would help, not PACD.
Interesting company. If things recover a bit, you think anyone might take them out? It might fill a niche for a bigger player.
PS: I put hold as my sentiment to indicate neutral but looking. No position.
Best of luck,
Thumbs up from me, thanks for straight reply.
I am stooging around, looking at these, live in CenTex, but no background in oil.
I can't get comfortable with these drillers, so will likely pass. But, if you want excess return, risk tends to go with it.
If I finally succumb and buy one of these, I am thinking ESV, PACD, RDC, roughly in that order. I am thinking maybe in April time frame, give it longer to reach maximum pessimism in the industry. I don't think we are there yet. Then wait 3-5 years and see if I get lucky.
I bought IBM in 94/95, real happy with that, but the last 200 shares I have kept over the last few years, I should have my head examined. Analysis paralysis. Point is, I am a buy and hold type, and drillers seem to be more like renting them. It's all in the timing, or lack thereof.
Thanks again for input, esp the Play Tow tip. There are a lot of folks on these boards (I'm one of them) that should spend more time walking their dog, and less time being an obsessive compulsive....or just ignorant and rude. I can stand one or the other, but not both.
Onward through the fog!
Ah, shorter term leases on Jack Ups? Live and learn. Not an oil guy, just your average opportunist. Thanks,
So, my naive take on consolidation made an analyst's summary. That and 5 bucks gets you a coffee at Starbucks.
So, they survive, but earn no money for a while. They got upgraded to "will survive this downturn"?
They would need a significant premium to make the IPO and major shareholders whole, apparently. So, unlikely in short term a deal happens?
I would think almost all the drillers cancel dividends if slump continues a few quarters. Pay down debt.
I will keep watching, and as long as I keep watching, oil will start to climb. If I say I bought some, run for the hills, oil has another leg down.
Best of luck to all y'all.
Oh sure, that's why I'm looking. Sure looks like a bounce this week. Best of luck.
So scrounging around a bit, trying to contribute to string and educate myself. Ahem.
Quantum means Quantum Pacific Group. Looks like defacto controlled by I Ofer, an Israeli living in London, son of a very successful shipping magnate. Owns large private fleet of ships, so I guess drill ships is an extension of that.
To play devil's advocate (not that I understand legal req), if he has 70% of voting rights, can't he just make an offer for 4 bucks a share, vote on it, buy it out, and sell it off for what he can get?
Not a real liquid security, for lack of a better term. What Quantum decides to do, that is what happens.
Same thing with ORIG, being owned by DRYS? Looks like shippers went into this sector as an extension, when things were hot. Is that about it?
For what it it worth. I have had this thing since owning Solectron (ugh), and I think we might actually finally be getting out of the ditch here. I can't see this thing doubling overnight, but in a couple years, I would not be overly surprised. They seem to be managing a low margin business about as well as anyone going up against FoxConn. If they keep reducing debt and buying back shares, it should work out. We'll see.
Sorry, tried to post a link to it on the Edgar website, but Yahoo bombed it out.
According to an sc13g filing dated Dec 2012, Quantum owned 150 meeeeellion shares. This equates to 69.2% of shares at the time.
Pedro said it is 70%, so I guess we let the 0.8% slide. The standards on these boards, geez. ; ))
Shout out to Pedro for letting me/us know about Quantum, that made the searching easy.
Best of luck to all,
Sorry, did not answer 2nd question.
Could they buy: the guy behind Quantum Pacific gave 54 million to London School of Econ for buildings that will be named after his father. I am reasonably sure he could buy the balance of PACD with change he finds in his couch cushions. Might have to check the Rolls too for ashtray money.....times are hard.
That said, I think, going public, he was looking to sell ultimately, not buy. Nature of the beast.
I believe XOM gives change to their budget at their analyst meeting. I think I read that in a blurb about their earnings release CC.
Given that the numbers range from 12-15%, XOM likely falls in that range -- it's pretty tight range. They are all looking at the same numbers, supply/demand/price wise.
That said, if oil goes to 30, those numbers are low. If it goes to 70, those numbers are high. And nobody really know what the oil price will be in the next 11 months. At least I don't. Ha!
It seems likely that all the big majors might keep the long term, big find stuff UDW is after. The incremental frack drilling stuff, boy howdy, it's already past that level of cuts. But they will want lower rates on UDW, just like on land. Glass half full at best right now.
My analysis, worth just what you paid me.
My best guess: the last option, oil going back up towards 100 USD is about it.
The rest of the options only come into play if the price of oil goes back up. Basically, all or nothing will help, and the all is the price of oil.
I have been lurking, waiting for a wash out on oil prices, thinking early q2 time frame as a wild guess. So, as I lurk, I function as a powerful contrary indicator. The more I watch and wait, the higher oil will go. So, as you post informative stuff, I will watch and wait. And wait and wait and wait....
All that said, are there other drillers (ORIG, RDC, etc) that are also have a real UDW focus out there that are not, essentially, controlled by one group (Quantum)? It might be that those rise and fall more with market, as there is not a controlling block in play. I just can't factor what the Quantum group could do...
He might be averaging down, plus he has been collecting dividends that lower his effective basis.
He has stated that if a stock languished, it allowed him to buy more and the company to reduce share count. He wants to look at owning a piece of a business, not shares. I think he even had a term (read The Warren Buffett Way) called look-through earnings.
IBM has been managing earnings through financial levers, no doubt. Is the balance sheet leverage wise? So, far, it appears so. But, IBM is being rewarded with a lower PE because they are not growing revenue.
However, this should be a pretty good year for the systems business (what's left of it), since Z, P, and I all have new cycles. We will see. If the systems business is too far gone, then that will continue to hurt them on the service and the software side. They better maintain a presence in Power, etc, or its all Lintel. It's already 98% there anyways. That would be my worry....the systems rate of decline.
Thanks for the update gents. I still have not bought, so I don't understand why this thing is not rocketing straight up.
Maybe it has something to do with the price of oil. I still have not seen "it's the end of the world" headlines for the oil service industry, as dire as some of the articles here in Texas are.
In any event, I think one additional key here is what does the majority owner want to do? Can they find a buyer, do they even want to? That's a wild card to me.
Best of luck,
Debt service is the issue. If you buy ORIG, you assume the 4.4 B in debt.
The stock is cheap for a reason. Leverage works on the upside with rising oil prices, and there ain't much upside lately.
These rigs are application specific. If oil is too low for needing holes punched in the ocean floor, the rigs are worthless. The debt is still there, but the cash flow to service it is not. Book is almost meaningless.
Look at PACD, ESV, RDC.....all have the same basic valuation and issues. Lotsa debt for fleets being built that nobody is using...or, to be more accurate, that contracts are harder to come by with much lower rates.
But, it is tempting, which is why I am lurking. A nice new fleet. Not sure any of the bigger drillers can afford to buy them though, as they are hurting too. If oil stays low for a year or two, some of these companies will cease to exist, and not from being bought out.
Best of luck.
I think the back of the envelope calculation is useful for discussion, and I think I Paid does appreciate it. We do tend to be a bit terse over the interweb, no? I doubt we would be over a beer. Mmmmm.....beer.
I think there are a couple of things with the calc you did (and I agree with I Paid, common gets wiped out in a BR, no doubt....that's why it's called common):
1. 20 billion in contracts is pretend in this environment. There are buy out clauses, etc.
2. The 30% for one rig seems conservative, but if dozens go on the block at once, it will be 3% on the money, not 30%. These rigs have no other use, and sit in salt water, rotting.
Finally, I don't think any of us really could unravel all the financials of Sea Drill, they sure do spin a lot of paper. What are we missing, would be my concern.