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Breitburn Energy Partners L.P. Message Board

bigbear.2010 427 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Feb 7, 2010
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  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 16 hours ago Flag

    Watch out, I am right behind you bunny. Jumped in again with 3k shares at $11.91. IMHO this is one of the best places to be in the upstream MLP sector if you have to be in that sector. MEMP and EVEP are also two other favorites.

  • Reply to

    Rig Count

    by rrb1981 22 hours ago
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 16 hours ago Flag

    perhaps a better methodology to show your intended point would be new drilling permits. They are already down 25-30% as of this month. American shale producers and even some major oil companies will not continue to open new field or wells at today's oil pricing. Shale oil production is one of the most expensive ways to obtain oil. Companies simply will not invest in new wells if the return is not there. Our Canadian friends have major cost problems; especially in their oil sand production which is even at higher cost than that of American shale producers. If the Keystone pipe line is not started immediately there are rumors that the total oil sands production will come to a halt..

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 16 hours ago Flag

    You sir are absurd and stupid. Perhaps you can fix the first but, you just can't fix stupid. You now go ignore with the other ignoramuses.

  • Reply to

    Market psychology amazes me

    by logicaldeduction Dec 19, 2014 7:55 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 21 hours ago Flag

    Folks, IMHO here is why oil is not going to stay at these prices for the duration.
    1. There is not really that much of an over supply to justify a 50% drop in oil pricing. A production increase of or over supply simply does not justify a 50% price discount as it is .05 percent of OPEC production to it's own quota. Fear of increased over production is the problem but, that is not rational as future production will be rapidly curtailed.l
    2. Production will rapidly curtain or stop on many existing and planned project. We are already seeing that in the reduction of the number of drilling permits issued and rig count.. We also see it already in US companies like LINE who have seriously cut their capex budget.
    3. Many countries of the world-many already politically unstable- can not tolerable the loss in oil revenue to keep it's economy and country stable. Even many of the middle east countries need at least $90-$100 oil to pay their social benefits cost. Even the Saudi's do and in a year at their current deficit they will have eaten up most of their foreign exchange account.

    That is is what I have read and is just my opinion giving some food for thought an conversation.

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 23 hours ago Flag

    Bingo, you have hit the nail on the head.

  • Reply to

    LINE - LNCO

    by vjpj1110 Dec 19, 2014 11:28 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 23 hours ago Flag

    Yes, I noticed that early this morning and actually purchased LINE for the first time. I never realized why the difference, other than a tax deferral/reduction advantage with the MLP structure. Also the humongous amount of extra shares floating around from the BRY deal may have played a part in that difference.

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 23 hours ago Flag

    Yea, I saw that same chart and in no year are they fully hedged. If that were so we would not be trading at $7. I suggest one be careful on the claims they make. No harm no file bu, it hurts the poster's credibility when making such unfounded statements of fact.

  • Reply to

    Distribution

    by habitsowner Dec 18, 2014 1:44 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 19, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    They say that they can operate in $55-60 oil profitably. If I remember correctly there lifting cost is around $34-$36. In any case you must look at hedge positions. No cut in 2014. IMHO no cut in 2015 based on strong hedge positions. 2016 may see a see small reduction. If they do cut my guess is 25-50% max. 2017 may see another cut but, much of that will relate to how big a cut they do in 2016. That is first, if they do a cut in 2016. I don't believe they have to but, they want to preserve cash for future.

  • Reply to

    Distribution

    by habitsowner Dec 18, 2014 1:44 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 19, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    They say that they can operate in $55-60 oil profitably. If I remember correctly there lifting cost is around $34-$36. In any case you must look at hedge positions. No cut in 2014. IMHO no cut in 2015 based on strong hedge positions. 2016 may see a see small reduction. If they do cut my guess is 25-50% max. 2017 may see another cut but, much of that will relate to how big a cut they do in 2016. That is first, if they do a cut in 2016. I don't believe they have to but, they want to preserve cash for future.

  • Reply to

    LNCO in Review.

    by bigbear.2010 Dec 19, 2014 9:45 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 19, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Please note shallow well decline rate should be less than 15% not 5%. Sorry Unfortunately I am not a good typist. For those who wonder what 7x EBITA is. That is around $18.

  • bigbear.2010 by bigbear.2010 Dec 19, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Fellow longs, I am writing this fthis ppost to help insure you than LNCO is a safe investment. I have spent many hour evaluating almost e very aspect of this company and even though I am down substantially, I still have faith in it..
    1. The projected sales have went through and that payed the bridge loan and reduced borrowing under it's credit facility.
    2. LNCO has roughly $2,.4 billion in financial liquidity in undrawn it's revolver. More than enough to meet it's financial needs for several years at $55-60 oil.
    3.While leverage still remains above optional levels based on RJ's debt forecast 1Q15 EBITIA, LINN'S leverage ration remains at about 4.5x. However, even with no acquisitions, or equity issuance over the next 2 years it is foretasted the leverage ratio will stabilize in the 3Q15 and flat-line in 2016.
    4. Utilizing strip pricing LINN has plenty of cash to meet it'dd financial covenants. In fact based on current estimates it is foretasted that just based on organic growth the covenant cushion is expected to increase over the next 12-24 month s.
    5. With cost tweaking and Capex spending reduced in 2015 estimated EPU and cash flow/unit estimates are being raised to $0.78 to from $0.72 /unit. and $3.17/unit from $3.12. From historical data it is estimated that lease and production cost could be reduced by up to 20% as new contract turn over to reflect current oil.
    LINN has roughly a $1.3 billion hedged book. Over 50% of it's oil is hedged the next 24 months at north of $90/bbl and those wells have a shallow production -5%-decline rate. Gas is hedged north of $5/MMcf and
    $4.50/MMcf over the next 24 months.
    5. With extreme volatility of energy space and risk premium associated with the current price environment one could expect LINN to level out at 7 to 8 x 2015 forecasted EBITIA.. This is near the bottom of the traditional upstream MLP 7-12 range.
    I know this evaluation may be questioned and I am open to all observations and comments.

  • Reply to

    What if they did this for one year?

    by keltus1952 Dec 18, 2014 3:46 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 18, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    jbcguy, you are correct, they simply do not have to and yes they did infer that they may buy additional acreage if mad available at reasonable prices.

  • Reply to

    LOOK OUT BELOWwwwwwwww

    by josephblough939 Dec 12, 2014 10:19 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 18, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    -go, Adding this poster to my ignore list also. Maybe he is just trying to be funny but, being funny is one thing; being a blithering idiot is another.

  • Reply to

    Walker bought 70,000 more shares.

    by texx2step Dec 8, 2014 7:40 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 18, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    If you know it for sure then I guess it is that. I was not totally sure as I noted in my post.I

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 18, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    Suggest you forget production numbers and concentrate on revenue numbers.. Oil will be 60% of revenue this year and estimated to be 40% of revenue in 2015. I also bought some LNCO this morning but, unfortunately not for the same reason's you outlined.

  • Reply to

    please explain

    by idror24 Dec 16, 2014 9:56 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 18, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    arbtdr, Excellent post. Very nice of you to take time to answer the poster's question. We need more posters like yourself.

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 17, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    Got to agree with you. Some of the serious firms with real research dept rank LINE. MEMP and EVEP as strong buys. They back it up with an analysis of the estimated coverage ratio on all upstream MLP's in relation to oil pricing running from $85 to $55. MEMP is one of the few who can still have positive coverage with oil at $55 for at least a year till 2016. Poop, by then we could be in WWIII. Operationally, MEMP has not been solid but, that is projected to change in 14Q4.

  • Reply to

    Baird's New Price Target

    by nosweat82 Dec 17, 2014 1:55 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 17, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Nice find. At least one concern wiped away.

  • Reply to

    memp

    by crl1603 Dec 17, 2014 10:48 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 17, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    Agree, I don't understand why. I am also going to pick up another 1K shares.

  • Reply to

    Dividend will be cut to 8.5%.

    by mg491955 Dec 17, 2014 11:29 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Dec 17, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    I just don't undeerstand these short posters or idiots who know nothing about the stock they are bashing. They come out of the woodwork like cockroaches

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