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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

bigbear.2010 866 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2016 4:57 PM Member since: Feb 7, 2010
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  • Reply to

    What??

    by criquet98 Apr 29, 2016 9:32 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 29, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    bacon, I appreciate your answering post and as usual you are spot on. I was just crying in my beer. Actually, with 24K shares at a $11.50 avg cost I should be jumping for joy, but I guess when I look at a $7,200 loss in 2 days for no good reason I get frustrated because as you and I know, there is just not a sound or good reason for such a sell-off . Like you, I have spent a ton of time and effort looking at all the nuances of the company that I could. Every item I explored leads me to believe that the company is a winner. This being the case , one expects serious investors as well as the supposedly well informed fund managers to have the same opinion. The one thing that keeps gnawing at me is the potential ability of a large fund to play both sides of the game. Sell and short at the same time. Something like, submit a big sell order, start a decline which takes out more stops creating a further decline and be playing the short game at the same time. That could explain the increase in shorts on a stock that should not even be shorted. Does that even make sense?
    da bear

  • Reply to

    What??

    by criquet98 Apr 29, 2016 9:32 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 29, 2016 1:31 PM Flag

    B2B, IMHO, there is little rational reasoning here. We retail investors are just along for the ride. You can't have numerous large sell orders and expect the retail investor to absorb those without some price decline. . Especially, with the daily volume the stock has. If the funds continue to sell off at times convenient to them or for reasons other than the stock's performance and forecast, how do we rationalize that? Here we are heading into earnings that almost every astute shareholders knows will be excellent and we get a three day sell-off supported by huge sell orders. Maybe, I am being too negative and cynical as I try not to be. Maybe it is just the market, but it seems fundamentals mean little in relation to this stocks pps action. JMPO
    da bear

  • Reply to

    "Why PSEC is being sued?"

    by thewisejman Apr 27, 2016 11:37 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 29, 2016 7:36 AM Flag

    Phil, I have kind of taken that same approach on investing this year as you, but I may differ in opinion on some of the writers at those media outlets. Especially, Seeking Alpha.. Some I respect because they back up their statements with logical fact filled, correct information. When someone suggest a trade here, believe me, I do as much DD as possible from every source available, which makes me not a good trade as I am often late to the game. Logic based on facts, I find hard to beat. For the first time in a long time I have not been fully invested and that is due partly to some of the comments from people such as yourself on this board. Like you, there are some I respect and others I accept as good hearted souls trying to be helpful.
    da bear

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 28, 2016 11:43 AM Flag

    Clro, tend to agree with you. They can raise, but will not, in order to conserve cash for acquisitions. OCN is preparing to sell all its non agency mortgages as well as some of its agency mortgages. On the last letting, NRZ lost out on a $500M mixed mortgage package to JPMorgan. Do not hold me to the exact figure. Anyway, it is apparent that OCN, will try and maximize its return on its assets and they are not going to be stolen or given away. IMHO, if NRZ wants those assets they are going to pay a fair market price. JMPO.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    FSC Thoughts

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 9:51 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 28, 2016 10:57 AM Flag

    Phil, I see you have little respect for SA so I won't expand on that subject. I do have NRZ, Aug $12.50 calls that I have been trying to move to Nov. $12.50, but have been unsuccessful as there seems to be no premium difference. I was expecting to get at least $0.15, but to no avail.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    "Why PSEC is being sued?"

    by thewisejman Apr 27, 2016 11:37 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 28, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    ya phil, I don't know what to think about that,. The authors and comments at SA feel it is a real plus and I have been involved in a couple that did work out well, but like you implied, these folks are not to be trusted. If nothing happens soon, I will probably be out in MAY. JMPO.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    OCN getting crushed

    by bacon2bacon Apr 27, 2016 4:40 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 28, 2016 9:38 AM Flag

    Hanna, You are correct, it does not benefit anyone but the state or fed coffers. As I have previously stated, OCN will eventually have to raise cash to pay those fines. It has a history of doing that. Stock or loans are out of the question, so they must sell assets. Most of those assets are non agency and agency mortgages that they can sell and hopefully NRZ will be in a position to acquire those assets. Especially, the non agency, as OCN has publicly said they want out of that end of the business. Unfortunately, IMHO, it will not be at fire sale prices as everyone seems to suspect, as there is serious competition for those assets from a number of companies. JMPO
    da bear

  • Reply to

    Short Interest back on the rise

    by stonergreg13 Apr 27, 2016 9:18 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 28, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    Folk, IMHO, we maybe in a very precarious position with these funds owning such a large part of the float for a number of reasons. Just thinking, all we need is a couple of large dumps by a fund and bingo, pps drops, stops are taken out and we see a large unwarranted drop. The dumping fund simply shorts the stock and wins on the bottom line. Can they do that?
    da bear

  • Reply to

    FSC Thoughts

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 9:51 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 27, 2016 8:13 PM Flag

    phil, I sold my small GARS a few weeks ago at a slight loss. What tipped the boat over for me was an article in Seeking Alpha on how bad their loan portfolio was. The situation was not pretty and the author basically felt mgmt was not forthcoming on all the problems they have. If you have not read it you should before re-entering.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    "Why PSEC is being sued?"

    by thewisejman Apr 27, 2016 11:37 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 27, 2016 4:44 PM Flag

    wise, I have about 3k shares at a $7.35 avg. cost. I am not going to add more. The main appeal with PSEC, outside the high yield is the promised proposed spin offs and what value that will release for the shareholder. Also, their latest earning statement looked good and Seeking Alpha had a couple of real positive pieces on them. The spin offs potential is the only thing that still has me holding any shares at all. I did have a serious position of over 13k shares at one time, but I sold most of that off recently and kept only the shares I now have, as I became totally frustrated with management. IMHO, PSEC Management is low class white trash. Can I say that? Anyway, they are a pack of thieves who have consistently stolen their shareholders wealth for years. JMPO
    da bear

  • Reply to

    "Why PSEC is being sued?"

    by thewisejman Apr 27, 2016 11:37 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 27, 2016 3:51 PM Flag

    wise, really appreciate the ideas. After looking closely at both I did decide to purchase 1k shares of PCI at $18.12. I know you feel PDI is the better one, but honestly, I can simply not convince myself to purchase an income stock at a pps above NAV. On the other hand, the 3k shares of FSFR that I purchased at 7.80 as a result of one of your post, really popped today. Up $0.20 today. JMPO.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    "Why PSEC is being sued?"

    by thewisejman Apr 27, 2016 11:37 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 27, 2016 1:17 PM Flag

    wise, I stand corrected. I took a look at PCI and to my surprise, it does sell at a discount to NAV of 10+%. Now, that being said, a purchase of PCI makes a lot more sense to me. PDI, as I suspected is selling with at a 3% premium, so I made a generalization which in my defense was at least half correct. : ) .
    da bear

  • Reply to

    "Why PSEC is being sued?"

    by thewisejman Apr 27, 2016 11:37 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 27, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    wise, thank you for the post as I own some PSEC. My problem with the Pimco Funds is that they tend to sell over NAV and return in the 9% range. For some strange reason stocks selling above NAV in this low-interest environment make me nervous. It is amazing how we all see the same thing and come away with different observations and opinions. Now, NIE, does sell at a reasonable 13+% discount to NAV, so that probably is more to my liking, but pays only in the 8+% range. I guess, it comes down to what you consider a high yield. JMPO.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    FSC Thoughts

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 9:51 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 27, 2016 10:59 AM Flag

    I agree, it's difficult, that is why I ask the collective to give me some ideas. I have come to realize that there are some fairly astute folks on this board and for the most part, are they are very helpful. This is probably one of the best boards around. JMPO.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    New stock ideas.

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 19, 2016 10:42 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 3:40 PM Flag

    bonzo, sorry my mistake, I will revisit that as the divvy difference is substantial. I will advise you what I have done or going to do. thanks again.
    da bear .

  • Reply to

    FSC Thoughts

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 9:51 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 3:01 PM Flag

    vasqm, I kind of have been doing that and actually have some cash now. I unfortunately am not the trader type, I fall into what I call a value investor who has to subsidize his lifestyle with some divvy income. I have come to find that retirement does not necessarily mean that your cost of living drop substantially.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    FSC Thoughts

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 9:51 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    I have to agree with you keltus, there does not seem to be any bargains around, especially in the high yield area. My growth portfolio is basically made up of BBH, BIB and tecks like, AVAGO, AMBA, SIMCO and ABT. Pretty much run of the mill stuff. We have a guy who basically steers us on that end. Funny thing, he has not come up with any new suggestions in 2 weeks.
    da bear

  • Reply to

    New stock ideas.

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 19, 2016 10:42 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    Bonzo, Thanks for the post. I will take a deeper look. At first glance the acquisition appears to be immediately accretive and DCF is increased to $85-$95M, but if I read the release correctly, they are forecasting a distribution cut of $0.24, so that brings the qrtly distribution down to $0.18 or about 9%. For a midstream today 9% is not bad IMHO. Unfortunately, I have a lot of KMI and ETE in my growth portfolio, so I am already heavily entrenched in that sector and to add more would be difficult for me to do without extensive DD. Thanks again, I do appreciate the post and info..
    da bear

  • Reply to

    FSC Thoughts

    by bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 9:51 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 12:59 PM Flag

    I did seem to have a problem selling off my winners that were paying a nice divvy. Somehow, I came to the epiphany, that basically, I acquired too many shares in too few stocks. If that makes any sense, so I am slowing and have slowly sold off my concentrated holdings over the last 3 days so that I am now down to a little more than 10k shares of FSC at $5.09 AC. I also sold other positions down to where I am up currently about $8k up on 10,500 shares of NCV, $4k up on 10,000 shares of EAD, $12k up on 12k shares of NRZ , $2k on 5k shares of HIX and about even on 5k shares of FSFR. I don't count divvys in my calculations as they to me are separate from the pps. The remaining 8 holdings are under 5k shares so they really do not worry me.
    What all this comes down to is; do I keep what I have and enjoy about $65k in divvys if all goes well or do I sell off them off and take the $36K in gains and look for new opportunities? This is a difficult decision for me.
    da bear

  • bigbear.2010 by bigbear.2010 Apr 26, 2016 9:51 AM Flag

    Hey folks, I am wondering if FSC has any legs left or has this puppy gone about as far as it can? . Personally, I don't know what triggered this run, outside of a rush for high yield stocks and maybe the lawsuits. IMHO, the divvy is sustainable, considering everything. What does the collective think?
    da bear

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