jbc, I agree, ARP will probably follow LGCY and LRE in stating that cut may come if market conditions persist.. They are not up against the wall as was BBEP and Line.
Very reliable outfit. I believe they are using historical modeling which indicates improvement very late Q4-15 but, IMHO to be safe use Q1-16 for recovery stage calculations
I read that the distribution for Q4-14 was in full but, they also noted that the BOD will consider cutting the distribution in 2015 if current market conditions persist . Sounds to me they are laying the groundwork for a cut.
Sorry opie, that does sound like a personal attack and I apologize. I got carried away and spoke inappropriately. You are most certainly entitled to your opinion and the ability to express it without an attack such as mine. Again, I apologize.
It is not my intent to offend you but, each of your rants sounds more and more like the diatribe of a lunatic left wing yellow dog Democratic. Please use your brain and not the party line. Blaming Bush now is crazy and simply stupid. People like you created the term: Yellow Dog Democratic because much of their voting base was so illiterate, unformed and easily convince that they would vote for a yellow dog if it had a Democratic label attached to it. That is what you sound like.
When was the last US refinery approved? We can't export crude but, we sure can gasoline and the EPA under their new guidelines-con-cocked under Obumer's regime-makes it impossible to build a refinery and almost impossible to operate one. Just consider the vast amounts of our money invested in clean energy through Obumer's initiatives. Dang, a bird can't fly in the west cost without fear of being chopped up by a windmill. Look he has done nothing, absolutely zero, to help American shale producers. They have made this oil revolution happen without any assistance from this regime. He does not care-actually he probably prefers it if all cars ran on hydrogen fuel cells and all our power came from solar.
I was leaning to believe the idea of a cut in US production myself as I read many bearish reports on cutbacks in rig count, capex and most importantly new well drilling permits. After deeper investigation I discover that those figures are now almost meaningless. Oil production per rig has grown and continues to grow at an amazing pace. Therefore, fewer rigs may eventually produce more new oil. This is attributed to; more experienced crews, new drilling innovations and technology improvements and by now only drilling horizontal wells on sweet spot proven reserves properties. Any properties that are not proven, questionable or requiring vertical drilling are being temporarily abandoned. Thus, they are going to drill and p[ump the heck out of the areas where no dry wells will occur and production is guaranteed which may in the short term could actually increase production..
Thanks offshore, I noticed that upon review. I thought we had later discussed that issue and it was doable as we predicted an increase in oil pricing by then and effects of a cut in the distribution. I may be confused and It appear on the surface my comment was incorrect and I stand corrected.
Opie,, I respect your opinion but, your are incorrect. Oil is produced for economic gain and when that gain is no longer available money will go somewhere else. That is the capitalist way. No intelligent company will increase production when every additional bbl is sold at a lost. Remember In the US this is not a state supported system. You don't stay in business that way. I #$%$ume you are an expert here so you should know that the big cost involved here is well drilling. Sure we -US shale producers-have an average lifting cost of around $20 so they can compete on existing wells at some lower price down to $40 oil but, that does not permit expansion of production in the shale oil industry. . Every oil price decline has economic consequences and have certain characteristics that are common to all historic oil collapse's and recovery but, apparently you know-it-all and have your own theory based on your your personal ideas and thoughts of what the industry should be. I live in a factual world supported by intelligent reasoning. One has to have something to make statement on other than IMHO, is just that your HO. No facts or logical thinking supported by anything just your wise #$%$ comments. Sure, there are geopolitical implications and I am well aware of them but, there always have been some national interest in all previous situations. We have to have something to to guide us and historical data is all we have. .Unfortunately, domestic production oil is not at the top of Obumer's wealth distribution progam so it gets little support -actually great hindrance-through the new empowered EPA and other governmental entities. I suggest you support your comments and not just post unsupported statements. Think, when was the last refinery built in the USA so we could export gasoline and not banned crude oil? The government has made it almost impossible to do so.
Gunbmy you are correct. World has changed. OPEC is not the power they used to be. They have went from supplying 49% to around 14% of world''s oil.
What do you think big-time? Why would anyone spend their time here if he did not have skin in the game?
Well maybe, there are some individuals like yourself who have special needs. Like hanging around message boards and bus stations. I just can't answer that.
Cashflow, I did some extra research on projected production as that statement that was taken from a recent Seeking Alpha Report. supporting the bull position on oil pricing. They explained that even long life wells decrease in production per well as time goes by and without additional capex expenditures on new wells total US production would fall as much as 500K bbd. Some production it was also felt would simply be shut shuttered because it was not economical at today's pricing.
That being said, I decided to look closer look at production options under the premise of massively reduced capex expenditures and found some interesting things to support your position. It appears that the shale producer have reduced capex but many expect production to increase-at least in the short run. They have recently began to shift all new oil well drilling to properties that are considered sweet spot where a producing well is a given and have abandoned any questionable properties for new wells. They also have stopped all vertical drilling and replaced it by horizontal drilling which in a know producing area is much more productive. All companies admit rig count is down and steadily declining. This rig count number for the longest time had been the benchmark of increased or decreased production. This is true but, the dirty little secret is that the oil production per rig has grown by some astronomical number-I believe 45% yr. They account for this growth as a byproduct of more experienced crews, horizontal drilling and the rapid introduction of innovation and technology to well drilling. All that being said, these experts believe we will actually see a 10-20% increase in shale energy production in 2015. An interesting conundrum.
They might surprise everyone with Q1-15 results.. From what I am reading all the shale-both gas and oil-producers are now only drilling new well on properties which are proven sweet spots where success is guaranteed and they also, will not be drilling any vertical wells at all. Everything will be based on horizontal wells. Also, oil production per rig has been growing by leaps and bounds-some crazy number like 45% yr.. This means fewer rigs producing more oil and gas with no marginal or dry wells. They claim experienced rig crews and new technology is revolutionizing the energy drilling industry. Even thought we will see fewer rigs utilized and capexex cut to the bone by all companies we are targeted to see an increase of 800k to 1.2M bbld in US production for the first half of 2015. Experts are not sure how long peak production numbers can be achieved with the projected much lower capex expenditures but, in the short time they feel it is a given.
What the heck is going on. Exposure to energy is what percent. I thought I read somewhere it was less than 5%. Maybe some one has the figure. NAV at $11.03 and now now trading at $8.22.. Seems like a buy to me.
Historically oil has bounced back to around 80-85% of peak oil pricing which would put it in the $80-85 range when the recovery does occur. Probably see that Q2-16.