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Broadcom Corp. Message Board

bigbear.2010 274 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Feb 7, 2010
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  • Reply to

    What does it all mean?

    by kxviswan Mar 31, 2015 1:17 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 14 hours ago Flag

    Us still at over 9M N bpd. Most likely will increase daily until late summer. Looking at shale producers cost it is hard to really say what average is. I have heard that $50 oil will test many. Rig count means little at these numbers. We need huge cut to reduce production substantially. All the previous figures are thrown out the window in this decline. It is purely a geopolitical thing. IIMHO, this is an oil war between SA and Iran and Russia..

  • Reply to

    So much for $20

    by diarreahagasbloating Mar 30, 2015 3:59 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 14 hours ago Flag

    True, I just hope they don't let this opportunity slip between their fingers. If they were to go to that, you would believe they wold have sold some by now.

  • Reply to

    sell the Jan 20's

    by avecennui2000 Mar 31, 2015 11:06 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 31, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    If you are long, that is not a bad idea but,I don't know if right now is the time to do it If we can pop up over $17 the calls will more than double. We might see at least $17 prior to the dist . in the run-up.

  • Reply to

    So much for $20

    by diarreahagasbloating Mar 30, 2015 3:59 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 31, 2015 12:25 AM Flag

    Yep, got to agree with you. They have a golden opportunity with all those hedges and they #$%$ it away with poor operational performance. Why is production declining so fast. With all the hedges in place they should be drilling like fools to take advantage of them.. What are we missing.

  • bigbear.2010 by bigbear.2010 Mar 30, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    Just looked at the recent earning report. I did not expect to see such a production and gross profit drop. Now this pps decline is starting to make sense. Seems like they can not get a handle on production. Actually making me begin to have a little doubt about how good a year 2015 will be.

  • Reply to

    Today's dip.

    by bigbear.2010 Mar 27, 2015 12:09 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 27, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    You are probably right. I also figured such a small reduction in the borrowing base would not sire this much action. I guess, like so many of the people who do there DD feels that the market will react in a rational way and see that that current energy prices have little effect on MEMP but, maybe that is too much to ask. I should be well schooled by now in how these out of favor stocks get clobbered for no apparent reason. Unfortunately, my mind still looks for some rhyme or reason to these price moves.

  • bigbear.2010 by bigbear.2010 Mar 27, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Is this price dip due to the reduction in borrowing base or am I missing something?

  • Reply to

    Divvie declaration should be this Friday

    by kenpalley2000 Mar 9, 2015 11:46 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 26, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    Yep, x-date is friday. I see some are worried about a big pps drop after the x-date. IMHO that will not happen. We have not seen lower prices than we are currently experiencing since late 2013 and that was only for a short period. Technically there was not a major reason for a big sell off other than the one time hit to NAV which came from a one time non-operating loss from some kind of tax loss-which I am at a loss to explain. The operations and income derived from them were and still are on track to have a great year. This is of course, if we do not have any other unexpected bombs dropped on us.

  • Reply to

    22.50

    by fishingpoma Mar 20, 2015 9:56 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 26, 2015 10:57 PM Flag

    Another worthless opinion. If you are going to make predictions do some DD and give some supporting data or evidence. Otherwise it is as useless as a fart in the wind.

  • Reply to

    Oil Prices wp

    by kxviswan Mar 25, 2015 2:38 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 26, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Interesting, maybe we should bring some of that to the US. Unfortunately this is a religious war where the Saudia's are getting slowly surrounded by #$%$ forces backed by Iran. They need to keep Yemen out of #$%$ control. IMHO that is what this whole oil price war is about. It not about economic as they simply do not make sense. Saudia's could actually make more money by pumping less oil. The House of Saud is scared. Remember, we are dealing with a kingdom here that is run by over 5,000 princes and another 50,000 relatives. Saudia's are using the only weapon they can. They are crushing oil pricing to destabilize their low time enemies; Iranian and Russian. It is working but, will it bring a collapse of these governments is the question of the day.

  • Reply to

    March 27

    by jb457 Mar 25, 2015 11:10 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 25, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    no. X-date = without divvy. Buy or hold on close of-26th- day before the X-date and you get the divvy .

  • Reply to

    Why the drop today?

    by bigbear.2010 Mar 23, 2015 8:36 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 24, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    mcat, I quickly looked over that article but, it seemed to be general legalese to swap or surrender notes to facilitate the merger. I didn't see anything really negative there. Did i miss an important point?

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by jbcguy Mar 23, 2015 11:40 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 23, 2015 10:16 PM Flag

    It's one of those damm if you do and damm if you don't things. There is no clear answer. I have been adding shares myself but, I am betting so heavy on this being a winner I have little choice other than to continue to accumulate. The monthly distribution now at around 17% helps ward off the feeling of total disenchantment. It pays about 8% more than my margin expense so it has not been a total drag on my funds.

  • Reply to

    Still not too late

    by dividendseeker Mar 19, 2015 10:33 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 23, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    Thanks for the procedural update.

  • bigbear.2010 by bigbear.2010 Mar 23, 2015 8:36 PM Flag

    Seems like a big move on no news or am I missing something?

  • Reply to

    Still not too late

    by dividendseeker Mar 19, 2015 10:33 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 23, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    Interesting, you seem to have spent some time in your DD. What is the normal number used for growth measurement in most high tech companies? I seem to remember it being higher than 1X.

  • Reply to

    A question about the K-1 statement

    by smallinfinity Mar 23, 2015 9:43 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 23, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Now, now g.m, play nice. Some of us just have too much money to be bothered by those little nuances. We just love to invest in things we don't know a dang about. It makes our life a little more interesting if not challenging.

  • Reply to

    dividend

    by dig4au Mar 17, 2015 10:34 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 23, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    I agree with that but, you can't always judge operating performance with a stock's pps price. Sometimes, this market is totally irrational toward a sector or a particular stock. They become out of favor for a while and no matter how well they perform the pps goes nowhere but down. IMHO this is one of those cases where time will heal your situation.

  • Have not seen your for a while down in the dirty upstream energy MLP's. Like you, I have played this tune before. OAKS's financials have always been a PITA to read and understand. I was surprised to return here and see OKS had taken such a beating. A question for you while I do my DD. What happened to drive price down. My guess is a bad year end but, the dang divvy seems to keep humming right along?

  • Reply to

    Is the worst over?

    by jbcguy Mar 17, 2015 3:42 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Mar 19, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    gm, Using historical data the 3 previous major oil price declines were on average a decline of 60% from peak oil prices. That corresponds to a bottom in this cycle of $40 oil. Again, from extrapolation of previous oil declines to our present situation it suggest wer will be in the $40-45 range for about 3-5 months before we see any real substantial improvement.

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