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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Message Board

bigbear.2010 456 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Feb 7, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Time to buy or time to bail?

    by richnstrong Feb 24, 2015 9:07 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 16 hours ago Flag

    It's always good to get additional thoughts on a stock. There are some intelligent people who use these boards and are experts on particular stocks.

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 24, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    I doubled down today myself. Not because I wanted to but, kind of was forced to. I had to reduce the pain of today's drop.and put, my holding where I don't have to see a $1 a share pop to break even. Charts look like it will settle out or bottom out in the $7.90 pps area. It seems to have support there. I did not expect this bad a reaction to today's report but, who knows what to think in today's emotional and irrational market.

  • Reply to

    Bought 87000 shares $MCC at 9.47

    by run35ok Feb 10, 2015 8:00 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 23, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    Why fry the packman for a little mistake. He basically is a good joe and post a lot of interesting stuff even though I admit he sometimes goes off the deep end.

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 23, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    Well put sir. Hopefully that should clear up all the question of what is what to those to lazy to read the material on their own. How can some of these folk consider investing their hard earned money in something they know absolutely nothing about? I will give my address and they can send it to me. At least I will send a thank you letter.

  • Reply to

    Very good results in 4Q

    by peterpal80 Jan 30, 2015 11:01 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 23, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Yep, but, unfortunately the market is not thrilled. Maybe we are just too small to attract much attention..

  • Reply to

    Div. cut

    by oldebutnotout Feb 20, 2015 10:04 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 23, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    Most likely, the latter is correct and they are saying to themselves, Why pay more than we have to to .Lets give the shareholders a reasonable return at these stock prices and see how this plays out. Around $1.20 is my also my WAG as it keeps everyone happy at the current pps levels. Might even kick start a move up to $9 pps as the market has already priced in somewhat of a major cut. Paying down the line also gives some flexibility in the upcoming year.

  • Reply to

    Easy Money by shorting this for a Month

    by thendy_patty Feb 19, 2015 8:57 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 23, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    hmm, I don't believe you understand the financial aspects of this purchase. It is not a dilution, it is an accretion. Big difference. Also, your comments on EPS are under the kindest view; unfounded. It's nice to post something but, please do not make unfounded statements of fact that make you look less than intelligent.

  • Reply to

    DISTRIBUTION CUT

    by tomcarr49 Feb 23, 2015 8:58 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 23, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    Probably a little of both plus a little for cleaning up the Eagle Ford deal. Personally, not real happy with that negative item but, hopefully will the new distribution coverage ratios we should see that be back in the positive next quarter. I can 't really fault anything about the announcement. They still want to pay what the can and yet stay liquid. . This year is not IMHO is not the problem. If these oil prices continue into 2016 we may then begin to experience some weakness in the distribution coverage and experience a reduction but, that is is long way for supposition in this oil market.

  • Reply to

    DISTRIBUTION CUT

    by tomcarr49 Feb 23, 2015 8:58 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 23, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    True, although some of us did not expect it to be enacted until next month. IMHO, total announcement was a big plus for the company and shareholders. Banks, apparently learned something last time around and as predicted decided to work with and keep some of their-partners-in the game. Distribution is at new rate appears to be safe and company has some funds for acquisitions is necessary. From a quick review IMHO it looks like a win-win situation for all.

  • Reply to

    Margin

    by bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 11:43 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 20, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    cashflow, The requirement is figured on the current pps of the particular stock. If you have for example $100k in stocks that are marginable at the normal 25%, then you can buy additional shares of any marginable stock up to another $200k so you have technically you have increased your buying power by about 75%. You then pay interest on that and the amount of margin you have. That amount of margin available is in direct relation to how much your base holding go up or down. Thus when prices drops substantially and you are on full margin-using all available margin-you get a margin call for extra money . If not available you sell something to replace the amount lost or they sell off your holdings.

  • Reply to

    Yahoo

    by jbcguy Feb 19, 2015 12:57 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    You may have hit on a good point. If I didn't have an extra 30k to throw in the pot I would be looking at selling something in the next few days.

  • Reply to

    Margin

    by bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 11:43 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    jbc, Thanks for the tip. I took a look at Interactive Brokers and you are correct about the margin charges. I am having a hard time understanding their trading fees as the per share pricing thing is a little foreign to the way I am used to. I will call them as get a better handle on that before I decide where to hop to.

  • Reply to

    Margin

    by bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 11:43 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    About the margin questions. I was not given a specific answer. Not sure if it was the house or fed move. Margin amount increased from 25% to 50%. On a per share basis at today's pricing that is about an increase from around $2.58 to $5.15. Cost me personally $60k in spending power.

  • Reply to

    Easy Money by shorting this for a Month

    by thendy_patty Feb 19, 2015 8:57 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    You base you comments on what?

  • Reply to

    What just happened?

    by griffin.mungus Feb 19, 2015 10:27 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    Yep, you have hit on a couple of the issues. Don't know if LINE's earning report played any part. I thought it was terrible but, many seem to think it's real positive and it looks like it will end up in the green today.

  • bigbear.2010 by bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    If any of you folks run a margin account, please note that E-trade-and I believe others-have raised the requirement on ARP to 50%..

  • Reply to

    Let's hope

    by jbcguy Feb 18, 2015 2:36 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 19, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    mungus, I have to disagree with you. When you owe the banks the type of money these folks do, they are not lenders, they become partners. Many banks have been through this oil situation before and know that it eventually will come to an end and they want to be there for the recovery. When it does these banks compete for the borrowing base and any edge they can get-like helping during the oil sell off-will go a long way in keeping these folks as customers. I believe it was in the VNR CC when they eluded to the fact that their banks were flexible with them on their covenants. This was one of factors that helped VNR keep it's pps up-above where IMHO it should be with regards to others in the same sector.

  • Reply to

    When will they announce the 4th Q report??

    by jrfillion Feb 16, 2015 5:16 PM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 18, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    I agree that dist.will stay the same for this month. If there is a cut-and that is debatable-we most likely see it the following month. My WAG is that it will be around 33-50% as IMHO they can squeak by with that kind of cut.

  • bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 18, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    Where did you get that EBITDA figure? I truthfully have not run a proforma on MEMP do to their high hedge position but, that EBITA of $300M sounds low considering they produced $90M+ in Q3.

  • Reply to

    LRE is the best

    by bored_man_in_office Feb 14, 2015 11:44 AM
    bigbear.2010 bigbear.2010 Feb 17, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Thank you for the personal update on your finances. I am sure we are all proud of you.

ARR
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