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Starbucks Corporation Message Board

bigfatty_guns 229 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Nov 7, 2003
  • AFLOP would have to rally 100% four days in a row to keep pace. And we know that'll never happen.

    AFLOP is just dead money: recovering losses isn't making money. TSLA is how to make money playing momentum.

    In fact, TSLA is perfect stock. It goes up because it has no profit and makes no sense. Oh wait, it's a "technology company" now. It's going to sell batteries to everyone when in fact every battery maker has collapsed (A123, anyone?). But Tesla is different. lol!

    Meanwhile, AFLOP has great results and is a seemingly way under-valued stock. Makes sense it should go up, right? Yet it collapses over 50% on suckas. While this makes no sense to most, it makes perfect sense to me. Coupled with the fact insiders dumped over $18 million shares and big institutions dumped into strength, we all saw it coming. You sell to suckers when there's strength and it makes sense to simpletons. This is how they'll give you all their money and trip over each other for a slice of the action they'll never get. Smart folks buy on weakness--even momentum bearing weakness.

    TSLA looks weak and superficially like a terrible investment. It's gone from $17 to over $257. AFLOP? Well, it's still just AFLOP down 50%+ from its IPO price over 13-years later. Despite not being profitable, TSLA is valued at $32 billion and AFLOP a paltry $234 million. So despite Tesla having no profit and no divy and growing nowhere near the profitable rate of AFLOP, it's still valued at over 145 times AFLOP. That's what I'm talking about.

  • Reply to

    Pump and Dump or Base and Run?????

    by joebigbuck Feb 25, 2014 9:36 AM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 25, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    A decade later and still in a base? Are you kidding me? Would you put $2 million or more of your money in this and just ride the base waiting? If so, you missed some of the GREATEST investments long and short in history of the US. GOOG at $44. BIDU at $80. Gold at $300/oz. Short NFLX first time from $294 to $80...then up even higher. The list goes on. So while AFOP might be some revelation to you, it's a dead-money laggard to me. I've followed it from the IPO. I watch the holders, the charts, results. In fact, I said the company will never go anywhere until it breaks $100 million. It got close in 2013. Still, I was only one of a few people defending this POS laggard at $.60 after saying sell it at $1.90. It faced delisting yet had twice as much cash per share than its stock price. So yeah, it rallied but hardly worth the wait. In fact, the amount of money I had tied up at that point competed with shorting more oil at $145/barrel knowing that was about to collapse. But I wasn't letting go of AFLOP then. Should have turns out because factoring in time value of money (inflation, opportunity cost, etc.), you're ALWAYS better to take the fast cash and move on. CLFD $17 to $26 in 2 months? Take it and run. AFLOP short $23 to $13 in 2-months? Ditto.

    As for the $12 price holding, who cares? You longs should be looking for much much higher levels--not just holding and averaging out. I hope you get it. But after I've seen what I just saw, I seriously doubt it. So at this point long or short, I got no interest other than cursory follow AFLOP until it's AFOP again. Frankly, if I were looking to hold this stock, I'd start buying it at the top near $23 hoping the next rally actually has real legs. This way when everyone sells I'm buying it all up and going where AFOP should be. Really compare it to prices of other junk like FNSR and AFOP should be 4 to 5 times higher but it probably never will. Which is why I can't recommend holding it long.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by dixielandwhee1 Feb 14, 2014 8:22 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 25, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    Like I said, AFLOP will rally on some nondescript day--some down day--when it's least expected...like today after yesterday's huge -4% drop on a +1% day. It's how shorts get out. Trust me, I know my AFLOP and trading.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 25, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Firstly, none of CFO's dumping was 10b5-1.

    Secondly, go back in history and show me 10b5-1 dumping from CEO or EVP. There's nothing like this HUGE and more frequent dumping. Show me one 10b5-1 of Chang's for 488,000 shares. In fact, you'd have to divide this by 2 and then multiple by 5 to get IPO-equivalent shares of 1.22 million IPO-equiv shares. That's serious dumping...and my point, 10b5-1 or not.

    Of course, my other point was back in Sept. I noted people were dumping huge shares. It wasn't just insiders. I just didn't have the proof. All the pumping fools and hucksters on this board blamed it on short sellers. lol They're so clueless and down 50% to show for it. Anyway, I posted all the firms' names that dumped through 12/31/13. Just the facts. Hundreds of thousands of shares were being unloaded on suckers buying into the Fiber 2.0 Rally to Nowhere.

  • Reply to

    Pump and Dump or Base and Run?????

    by joebigbuck Feb 25, 2014 9:36 AM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 25, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    It's pumped and dumped 8-times since the IPO. I guess one could argue only 7 if you exclude the IPO dump without a pump.

    Argue all you like. I know the stock. It gets beaten down to heinous lows. Like I said back in 2008 it fell to 50% of cash/share value ($.63) and was almost delisted. It was profitable even back then, too.

    The whiny pumpers on this board want to blame the short sellers for AFLOP's collapse. Well, I just showed them the list as of 12/31/13 of all the big holders that pumped and dumped hundreds of thousands of shares. Insiders dumped over $18 million worth with CEO dumping 24%, EVP 60% and CFO dumping 73%.

    Do I blame any of them? Nope. Heck I shorted the pump from $23 on down to $13 myself. So your arguments are reasonable about "profit taking" in general. It was a fast and furious run for AFOP. Really it's one and only so far. However, this is AFLOP's nature. Look at the chart.

    Pump-n-dumps:
    # 1: 2000
    #2: 2001
    #3: 2003-4
    #4: 2005
    #5: 2006
    #6: 2007
    #7: 2011
    #8: 2013

    Bottomline: AFLOP is still a long-term laggard. The dumps are long, drawn out heinous lows where new buyers come in. The pumps are fast, steep and flashes in the pan. They never last as evidenced again here in 2013. You had roughly a few days above $20 and then serious dumping pain. Now, it's 48% below the 52wk high, 55% below the IPO over 13-years later, and it's 79% below the inflation-adjusted IPO. It'd have to rally from today's $12.36 price 94%, 122% and 369% to achieve these levels. Won't happen.

    Argue your decade plus base all you want, I'll stick with less profitable (NFLX) or even grossly unprofitable momentum plays like TSLA if you just want to play momentum. Those have huge support and don't take over 13-years to be 50% break-even! before going anywhere near this laggard with incredible results...that probably won't last. Big institutions and insiders cashing out are betting just that--won't last. Pump and dump, guy.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 24, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    Jimmy, if we want any more doo-doo out of you, we'll squeeze your head.

    You've been saying buy this rubbish from $23 on down. Yeah, you got caught "trading the range" (bwhahahahahahaa!!) and lost 23% on the day of earnings. We know. So don't tell people to buy this rubbish and trade the latest range because the previous -52% range hasn't worked for ya.

    You've lost your shirt. One guy (me) called AFLOP 100% correctly since $24. And I do more than just bash, Jimmy. Come on. E.g., I called buy CLFD at $17 with a target of $26. In less than 2 months, where did it close today? $26.04.

    Come on, Jimmy. Recommend trade a long-term laggard, low-volume, pump-n-dump loser like AFLOP--in a downtrend? And then try to bash me? Come on, jimmy. Be anything except a disgruntled foul-mouthed liar bashing the most successful trader in Yahoo MsgB history. Your lying lends you negative credibility, guy. Yeah, listen to Jimmy--trade this rubbish long after dropping 4% today immediately on open when the broader markets soar +1%! Then go nowhere. You made nothing. lol Besides, no one is going to listen to you. Where was your sell post on Friday warning of Monday's sudden 4% drop? I suppose had AFLOP gone up 4% today, you'd be telling us Friday you bought. Bwhahahaha!! You're advice is worse than the Seeking Alfalfa's and Zack's combined and you're delusional. See ya, jimmyburton. To the dung heap with the rest of your allarndproducts multiple ids. Ignored.

  • Hubbard dumped another 12,000 in Jan 2014 at $16.60. Add this and he's dumped 60% of his holdings. Wow, there's confidence in the Fiber Boom 2.0 just beginning!

    If anyone wants to dispute these facts, they can look up the numbers themselves on Yahoo Finance under Insider Transactions. If you've done the work and still want to dispute these facts, I'd be happy to do just that.

  • They're selling into it. Just look at AFOP. Even OCLR has a higher valuation!

    No one believes the pumping analysts. AFOP just got hammered -52% in 4 months. CEO says it's different this time. lol Well, I suppose it is: this time insiders are dumping shares at the top instead of waiting another decade+ for Fiber Hype Boom 3.0.

    Fraud St. is hyping this garbage to anyone it can to sell into it--just like AFOP. It didn't matter AFOP's results were record-breaking, 35 consecutive Qs of profitability. Nah. Yet it's got the lowest p/e and still getting crushed! -4% today while Dow/Nas +1%.

    No one has any trust for fiber CEO's or analysts after the Dotcom crash--especially when CEO's like AFOP's Chang, the EVP, and CFO dumped massive amounts of shares in 2013. FNSR insiders are dumping, too. They know better. Certainly they don't know how to instill confidence in their stock, company or own words. Regardless, it seems everyone continues dumping shares into the Fiber Hype 2.0 rally to nowhere.

  • Also warned folks about AMSC at $40. Short interest is skyrocketing and professional shorts never lose. Both AMSC and AFOP got hammered. AMSC is under $2 now. FNSR is heading to $12 and you can take that to the bank. It's just a matter of time.

  • I think those that said buy now or pay much higher later disagree. I think those that hit the "Buy It Now" button at $20, $18, $15, $13, $12...they're all paying a MUCH HIGHER price now even despite people warning suckers. Frankly, all you ill-advised folks saying this is going up have ZERO basis. The fact is AFLOP is in a downtrend and just lost 52% in 4-months despite record results. Those touting this garbage are getting slaughtered and embarrassed daily. Good stocks don't act like this. They just don't. In fact, even poor stocks with terrible fundamentals act better than this 8-time pump and dump special. Insiders know better. It's why they dumped over $18 million worth. Shorts aren't covering. What more signals besides the chart in a nasty, bearish downtrend do you need? And in weeks, when it's $8, what will you say then besides it's cheaper? lol

    I'm not sticking up for duchelm either. While I disagree with his AFOP is way over-valued comment, I've seen AFLOP trade for 50% of its cash value. That's how hated this pos stock is--and I don't care what its results are. When AFOP turns to AFLOP like it did in 2011, allarndproducts took his rubbish from $20 to $7. I warned him then, too. And again I said since $23+ this was going down. Nothing has changed. You NEVER EVER buy AFLOP on the way down. Ever. The stock has been a terrible investment since the IPO. Split-adjusted, it has to reach $27.50 to break-even excluding divies. Of course, factor in divies, etc. and inflation-adjust the IPO, you're looking at a price of over $70 just to break-even after 13-years beyond the IPO. So how do you like your "hurry, better buy here at $12 or pay a lot higher" turd now? lol You'll all be buying this junk at $8 or who knows, maybe even lower. Maybe 50% of it cash value again and facing delisting. I've seen this once before already. I won't go near it at any price. It's a short-only stock and great example of how foolish buyers lose big money.

  • Reply to

    very weak again

    by duchelm00 Feb 24, 2014 4:10 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 24, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    While I disagree it's "over-priced," I do agree/think it's heading lower. Just look at all the people saying buy this after it's fallen 52%. I've said since $23+ avoid it/sell it. You'd think they'd learn by now.

    If you think this is over-priced, just look at Finsar with 40 p/e, insiders selling, $1.5 billion in accumulated losses and new convertible debt (VERY BAD). They're hyping that rubbish on that board while everyone dumps it just like AFLOP back in Aug/Sept.

    I have to really laugh my butt off when anyone on this board expresses any faith in Chang. I mean come on. The guy brought AFLOP public back in 2000 at the PEAK of the dotcom bubble. Yeah, I'm sure he knew that was the peak back then, right? lol And now he's telling you this time is different? So will the real Peter Chang please stand up. Either he bamboozled and snookered all the fools the first time knowing fiber was doomed and it was the peak, or he's clueless and should not be talking about peaks at all. Either way, it doesn't bode well for longs. -52% and the stock is still a disaster. Good stocks don't behave like this and certainly not under-valued stocks at that. While I do believe the record results speak for themselves, I don't think it lasts. Yes, I'm saying Chang is a pom-pom waving cheerleader full of b/s at this point. Insiders should be dumping huge percentages of shares if some fiber boom is just beginning. If so, again, these people have zero common sense and furthermore do not instill a lick of confidence in their own spiel. I say it's no different this time and so far I'm 100% right. This is the 8th pump and dump. No other stock is acting like this. If so, show me the stock with record results, profitable for 35-quarters straight, a $.15 divy or more, and loses 52% of its value after beating Q3 results yet whiffs (I still say very impressive numbers) on Q4. Mind you, AFLOP tanked -42% after Q3 and another -24% after Q4. Pump, dump and leave it to slump.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 24, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Just like I warned AFOP baggies at $23+ and it's now $11. FNSR is next heading to $12-$14.

    Convertible debt death knell. $1.5 billion in accumulated losses = failed business. 79 p/e ratio already cut in half. Insiders continue dumping shares. Just the facts.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 24, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    Great trade. Love the fact it got rid of its converts. Love it. Unlike FNSR which will learn a terrible lesson: money isn't free/converts are doom.

    Fundamentally, I think OCLR is still a bad investment. Compared to AFOP, it's just not going to survive long-term unless there's a fiber boon/miracle. Eventually, it gets bought out. Price? Who knows. But compare its market cap $330M vs. AFLOP's $220M and clearly AFOP looks much better. Then, again just look at AFOP's chart and carnage. It's hated. Every fiber holding or going up gangbuster--even responding positively to highly-speculative news--and AFLOP just falls lower and lower. Meanwhile OCLR even beat my CLFD call I think. OCLR turns things green operationally, it could run to $10 like EGHT did.

  • Reply to

    I was just thinking about our lone analyst......

    by joebigbuck Feb 24, 2014 1:34 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 24, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    He's NOT the driven factor behind AFOP's stock price, period. Get that straight right now.

    No one listens to analysts. NO ONE. They're nothing but fronts and/or excuses. Big money controls stock prices. Certainly actions that affect big money's perception, etc. can drive prices. This and outright financial drive to make or plunder money from people. Just look at TSLA over $200 and still losing money. It doesn't need good results: just a story and big money steam rolling any short that's stupid enough to get in the way. Eventually, it'll end.

    Bottom-line is this. I told you and this board AFOP would collapse just like the other 7 major pump and dumps. There is no support for a stock that does this. Pump, dump--rinse and repeat. It's not a conspiracy theory; it's fact. Add in my experience dealing with the short interest and I guaranteed AFLOP would collapse. Hardest part was merely getting the top. 3 peaks and domed house chart pattern made that pretty easy. Clearly someone with the resources (money) set this up so everyone that has half a brain could time their exit--including insiders. Then again, all you had to do was follow my posts b/c I spelled out exactly what they were doing. Now here in Feb, I've backed it all up with the list of firms that dumped hundreds of thousands of shares including Bogle, Renaissance Tech, etc. I proved it wasn't the shorts that pounded the price down. It was good old fashioned dumping--something AFLOP excels at. The market makers supplied the shares for the market pump then just got out of the way for the dump. This is why short interest hasn't changed much since $24. Now the shorts are defending their positions with leverage and no buyers in sight. I mean who buys a stock down 52% and -4% on a day when the broader markets are up +1%?? No one.

    As for meeting Q1 numbers? Who cares? AFOP met Q3 numbers and the stock still tanked -40%. It's called supply and demand and big money drives both rigs.

  • Pumped and dumped. Fraud St. is selling snake oil to anyone buying the Fiber 2.0 bubble. Oh it's different this time. Bwhahhaahhaha!! Just like the first time, right? You really are a gullible fool if you're buying into this nonsense. AFLOP from $24 to $11 should be warning enough. All the firms that pumped this bubble SOLD OUT. Sure there are buyers and they're buying alllllllllllllll the way down--exactly how the last bubble started. lol

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 24, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    The dumping continues. Everyone averaging out and getting out now they know the real AFLOP.

    This turd is over 50% off its high and still falling...dumped into every pump now. lol I notice none of the usual pumptards are in here hyping this rubbish now. -4% when the markets are up 1%. I guess they've run out of b/s and pumping nonsense...or are just too embarrassed and ashamed of pumping a stock all the way down -52%.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 24, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Week later...markets up 1% and AFLOP down -4%. Seems accurate.

    Those that sold at $20+ know AFLOP including insiders. This stock is horrible. Nothing but an 8-time pump and dump special. Can't argue with its great results any more than you can argue it's a terrible stock to own. It's got such a great story to swindle suckers. Avoid it.

    Chang is right. This time IS different: insiders all sold at the top. CEO dumped 25% and EVP and CFO dumped much higher percentages--barely own many shares themselves. Chang still owns 2 million shares, but what does he care? He's made his money. The 25% dump last year was just the cherry on the top. Obviously insiders don't care about AFLOP's tanking price. Oh wait, the EVP did. He dumped one last lot of 12,000 shares at $16.60. lol

  • CLFD is almost at my price target which I might have to up from $26. It seems to respond properly to positive industry news (GOOG, FB), and yet AFLOP is still flopping and floundering down -50% post-pump-n-dump. So while this turd circles the drain, CLFD has rallied $17 to $26 in less than 2-months. Yep, just goes to show you better back the right horse to win the Fiber Boom 2.0 race.

    So good luck pumping this career-long laggard AFLOP as lame as ever. Do yourself a favor. Call up a max chart, performance comparison between CLFD and AFOP. You'll see a great stock (CLFD) which insiders are buying at $20 vs. a laggard (AFLOP) which insiders dumped at $20. AFLOP even upped the divy $.05 to entice baggies with a $.15 dividend circa $18 before slamming them further -40% to $11. Of course, at $18 the stock had already tanked $6 or -25%.

    Well, +3.4% today and only 90% more to go to get back to 52-wk high. Woohoo!

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Feb 20, 2014 10:37 PM Flag

    Irrelevant. Smart institutions pumped and dumped. Then, supply outstripped demand like I said it would. It wasn't just shorts pounding the bid; it was insiders, institutions and other smart people dumping heavily while fools just kept enjoying the discount to nowhere. I got all the pumpers on ignore as none of their hype or pumping has changed since $24 to $11. Blame the fall on everything but their pure ignorance. Bwhaahahha! I still can't stop laughing at this AFLOP shellacking and fleece-job.

    You people need to take economics classes in addition to finance. It's crystal clear why you all keep hyping a stock that's fallen 50% in 4-months. Yeah, just focus on the positives, right? lol And nevermind the chart is in a downtrend, and this is just one more pump and dump in AFLOP's history. Anyone can find out the list of new bagholders, but I doubt any of you board monkeys could find it.

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