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Olin Corp. Message Board

bigfatty_guns 96 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 12:30 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2003
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  • Reply to

    GE, take a look at your web site

    by ragingbull_si Jan 29, 2015 10:10 AM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 29, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    Does anyone REALLY trust BDI rates? Who knows how, who, etc. complies these...let alone what they amount to. Gee, my gas gauge is reading near empty, does that mean it's the end of the world?

    In fact, last time BDI rates were soaring, economies collapsed! So if anything, I find more hope, encouragement and opportunity at these lows than THOSE highs. Of course, I'm not raging ecstatic about the over-capacity, terrible equity dilution and higher debt in most cases either. Which is why folks should temper expectations either way. Bottom-line is DRYS nor shipping industry will be shooting to the moon any time soon. It'll be long and drawn out just like oil rising (again) will be.

  • Reply to

    Kind of crazy (DRYS' PPS i.e.).

    by redtr4 Jan 29, 2015 11:31 AM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 29, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    Difference is WCOM like ENE were going bk in my predictions. TNT was worth real money when oil recovered. Shipping WILL recover: it's just when AND who will live to tell. Ships aren't easy to build/replace and it only gets more expensive when there is high demand. Really i don't know if DRYS will come through, so at this point I'm betting on George with a couple other positives in the background.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 29, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    Sure hope you're wrong, jr. I'm now buying Suezmax quantities of DRYS and could care less what happens to the price in short-term or really what you disparagers lament about.

    I bought 50k of TNT for $.10 back when oil was under $10 and all doomsayers said oil cos were done...especially a Russian owned one. Co sold since, but stock eventually hit $167 when oil rebounded.

  • Reply to

    Kind of crazy (DRYS' PPS i.e.).

    by redtr4 Jan 29, 2015 11:31 AM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 29, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    GM filed bankruptcy and stock traded for $.90 for how long? We knew it was worthless the bk moment. DRYS is not in a great place right now, so Fraud St. can put any price on it...whatever the computers can do to swindle the masses out of the most money.

  • Reply to

    Kind of crazy (DRYS' PPS i.e.).

    by redtr4 Jan 29, 2015 11:31 AM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 29, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    There are only too many ships when oil prices are high along with consumer goods (made with oil). You all have to be patient. Remember dotcom days when 100kbps was fast and there was too much fiber? Things take time. Find the best outfit prepared for long haul and wait. How much easier is it to do nothing else? Shipping capacity will most likely turn out to be like gold...no one wanted to touch it at $300 when I said it's going to $1,000, but everyone loves it when it's $1,600 and they're talking about $3,000!

  • Rest assured if this junk is moving up, it's being pumped and will always end up lower. This stock is the best short I know. Besides, ask anyone buying this trash above $20 how it's working out for them. Insiders dumped millions in shares $20+ for a reason. Now company has to do a buyback to help reduce all the dilution over the years (note: this is second buyback in recent years). Best yet, after dumping most of their shares at $20+, insiders are now loading up (again) on $14 or lower riskless option grants diluting baggies even more! Pump and dump ponzi junk is what AFLOP stock is. Markets were down nearly 2% and this junk rallied on no volume up nearly 2%? Bwahahaha!

  • Up 1% when markets down 1.5%. It's manipulated to the point no one will go near it...long (avoid) or short (recommended). 10k shares volume is pathetic. Fraud St. computers are merely churning shares amongst themselves to keep keep the lights on. Frankly, it's probably best to avoid this ponzi junk stock completely. It's simply manipulated too much and insiders dump and dilute. AFLOP never carries a good valuation and therefore the reward vs. risk just isn't there.

  • Reply to

    bigfatas#: i think u and i the only ones on here

    by baily299 Jan 23, 2015 12:38 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 7:50 PM Flag

    There's no bandwagon. Volume alone says no one gives a carp about AFLOP. I really don't care what happens. Higher I short more and lower I might short more. Either way, I'm not looking for anything but $8. Good luck to you guys. My guess any rally will be greeted with sellers. Last two Q's the stock tanked 25%. It's a mess and Chang pompous as ever.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    On second thought, Arch, the deal was done Nov 7 at $1.10 and merely two months later this mystery buyer is down a STAGGERING 45%. It sure has his anti-midas touch signature on it! lol

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    No. If it were Douglas, he'd have to disclose it. He has disclosed every purchase openly since $40, why try to hide now? Fact is even he's given up. You can buy 10 million more on Monday at $.60. Someone will sell them to you short I'm sure. This junk is worthless and my guess is it's some speculator with money to burn...hence the gamblers' warrants attached. Douglas just not smart enough to ask for these nor win. This junk is heading to Davey Jones's Locker regardless of how much deathbed financing it locates.

  • Imagine was 2015 will look like with $40 or lower oil? Dry bulk will follow although nowhere near as dramatic. I guarantee firms are SCRAMBLING to get a slice of this potential action which explains the subterfuge and pounding of DRYS stock price. I guarantee this goes lower without substantive reason, someone will be either loaning or selling me a lot of shares they won't get back cheap. Last time I took 50k shares of TNT when oil was under $10/barrel, those ended up at $161. Yeah, oil prices matter.

  • Reply to

    CNBC said the bulk shippers...

    by ggray1956 Jan 23, 2015 12:38 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    Lisa answered my question. It's actually not as bad as I was modelling for DRYS. Honestly, most of the folks on this board have no clue--to a degree myself included. To the extent there's intelligent life on this board, well, I'm encouraged.

  • Reply to

    CNBC said the bulk shippers...

    by ggray1956 Jan 23, 2015 12:38 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    Thank you. :)

  • Reply to

    Greek market coming out of a falling wedge. Bullish

    by kem60 Jan 23, 2015 3:15 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Sounds like he got hit by a falling wedge. I feel for those taking this down. I rode it up years ago and just can't believe how terrible since. Never would I have imagined $.97 and such a glut. Then again I never imagined oil $150 and here it's back down at $40. Frankly compared to nat gas, it ain't worth but $25/barrel btu vs. btu. I've said this since 2007 and it just kept rising. In fact after nat gas tanked oil kept going up. Clearly all this sheet is 100% rigged and manipulated. There is no market.

  • Reply to

    CNBC said the bulk shippers...

    by ggray1956 Jan 23, 2015 12:38 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    Ok, but how much of total debt encumbers DRYS' fleet?

  • Reply to

    Greek market coming out of a falling wedge. Bullish

    by kem60 Jan 23, 2015 3:15 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    They've propped it up this long, I doubt it'll fail. Besides, who would even know or care? I mean have you seen anything important come out of Greece in last 100-years?

    Elections might have implications, but I hope seriously no one is relying on DRYS to save Greece from its social mess. If folks sold today to skip out, most likely they'll pay a lot more to get back in. We'll see.

  • bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    Point is look at the rate skyrocket in anticipation on lower oil prices. I mean in q3 DRYS' rate rocketed. Now, consider $40 oil and cheaper dry bulk goods that are highly oil dependent. Dry bulk is going up with higher consumption. Fraud St will miss this just like it missed telling people to buy gold at $300/oz like I did back in 2000. I remember my posts then and people telling me my $1,000/oz prediction was crazy. Well, I was off by $600/oz...at $1,600/oz!

    Mark my words, GE and DRYS just might send shock waves through all the naysayers.

  • "The Time Charter Equivalent(2), or TCE, rate for our drybulk fleet was $10,875 per day per vessel in the three month period ended September 30, 2014, as compared to $10,796 per day per vessel in the corresponding period of 2013. The Time Charter Equivalent, or TCE, rate for our tanker fleet was $20,901 per day per vessel in the three month period ended September 30, 2014 which is a significant improvement compared to the $15,802 per day per vessel TCE rate in the corresponding period of 2013."

    Factor in oil collapsing...well only scared sheetless shorts that held converts too long, scared investors and fools would be selling right now.

  • Reply to

    CNBC said the bulk shippers...

    by ggray1956 Jan 23, 2015 12:38 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    Frickin spell check sheet...I write debtholders and it subs bondholders every time. Fixed that!

  • Reply to

    CNBC said the bulk shippers...

    by ggray1956 Jan 23, 2015 12:38 PM
    bigfatty_guns bigfatty_guns Jan 23, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    bondholders...

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