aka The Dealer of Death. So abandon all hope, Finasuckers. This stock is going down just like I said AMSC would. While I don't see FNSR going bankrupt like AMSC, FNSR is a TERRIBLE investment: over $1.5 billion in losses = failed business plan. Insiders dumping into a 40 pe ratio! lol
The stock isn't worth a penny above $5/share. Give it time to make this adjustment.
After the smoke and mirrors act, this junk is going down. It's just a matter of when. Probably when the convert shorts are all lined up, the rug will come out. I'll be here to remind you I told you so...just like after the convert deal with SIRI, SUNW, NEM, CHTR, OCLR, etc. The list is long and distinguished. Converts are the kiss of death for baggies. Of course, if you sell the initial pump on announcement you do well. Key is guessing where that top ends and the clobbering begins. Once the clobbering starts, you're doomed. It'll dead cat bounce all the way down to some heinous low. My $5 target could be conservative. Yeah, AMSC went from $43 to $1, so I made a little mistake of only putting an $8 target on at $43. lol
In fact, it's 3Q was incredible. Revs up 86% and net income up 282%. 34 consecutive profitable quarters.
Fraud St. seems to be picking random targets in fiber and then going on random shorting sprees. While I agree the results weren't that great profit-wise, they're an improvement YoY.
Gee, imagine that, Fraud St. having a Buy or Hold all the way down. BFG was right at $40, SELL. I told you all this was going bankrupt. $825+ million in losses, over $1 billion equity plundered, and now time is up.
I see the allarndproducts is back in here whining and pumping more even after losing 43%. Carry on! lmao
Just have everyone on the board spam-flag his id and yahoo will delete it. That's what he did to DJ's id on FNSR board. DJ posted nothing but facts but the board bully monkey used all his multiple id to get the id deleted by Yahoo. Return the favor to the little board runt. He doesn't respect free speech or opinion, this is clear. Right, wallisweenie?
Leading stocks always tank hard and first. I think markets in Jan gave a serious correction warning shot and it's all adding up to me. I'm just say'in... Longs better watch out for a MAJOR crash starting a bit like 2000, but it'll end worse than 1929. That's my bold prediction. It's just when.
I remember 2000 crash and it kind of started the year like this but sans the warning correction. Nasdaq rose over 20% by April (I remember b/c I sold-out in Jan missing the precise top) then it tanked over 80% by November. Seriously, I wonder if AFOP is the first dying canary. Makes perfect sense with insiders dumping $19 million shares and saying nothing to defend the sudden 50% collapse. What are they all in some doomsdale bunker now? Hello!
As I predicted last year, MDY setting up same 3 peaks and a domed house as AFOP. Remember what happened to AFOP when I said it was forming 3 peaks and a domed house? Oh yeah. All the usual fools and tools on this board called me crazy and/or the pattern unreliable or didn't know what the fork I was talking about nor cared during the pumphoria. Well, they hear me now.
What a pump and dump loser. Probably any other stock and the price would be $40+, but not this rubbish. I warned you all. 8x pump and dump disaster now over 50% below the high and still falling hard.
AFLOP sure qualifies to attend this. I hope after Chang presents some "prospective investors" grill him re: why insiders dumped over $19 million of shares in 2013 and aren't repurchasing any even 50% lower. I'd ask about the 44% dilution since the IPO and if insiders have any confidence at all in the stock themselves seeing it's more than 50% lower than the IPO price over a decade later. In short, ask him why he'd buy the stock here at $11. Then see if he does anything to backup his mouth. I doubt it.
Yeah, Chang's back [at this conference] again already trying to garner more attention/focus on AFLOP after dumping 25% of his shares right into AFLOP's first real rally since collapsing post-IPO. Way to instill confidence, insiders. I mean, nice job! I'd laugh the huckster right out of the room. I don't care what AFLOP's results are. At some point, AFLOP's customers will slow along with comps and the stock will get even uglier and likely forgotten. We all know that AFLOP: the one that faces delisting with over $1/share in cash but trading too long at $.60. Only Fraud St. could pull-off that one with a dash of Chang's help (read: ARS debacle).
Or maybe AFLOP will plummet another 22% tomorrow and take the beating for Cisco. Seems Chang is now fiber's poster whipping boy of what not to do aka screw the pooch.
Maybe AFLOP's "seasonal" Q4 is really a prelude of what's to come from telecom. You know, if Cisco sneezes... Regardless, how long can this datacenter fiber rush go on? What and how much more rubbish is there to pipe all over the place? NSA spies are about to get their power plugs pulled.
Also, as I've stated for over a year now, the ponzi scam markets are likely to crash just like 1929. I've posted several times about it. Well, how about this story. Someone finally sees what I see although I called it three peaks and a domed house--just like I said about AFLOP and we know how it ended.
Feb. 11, 2014, 6:30 a.m. EST
Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
Opinion: If market follows the same script, trouble lies directly ahead
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — There are eerie parallels between the stock market’s recent behavior and how it behaved right before the 1929 crash.
What all the naive out there don't seem to get is the higher the short interest, the MORE likely your going to get your long *** burnt. Most think very high short interest means squeeze is eminent. No. Sure the stock might go higher and even force the weak shorts to cover, but guess who's shorting them higher? Pro shorts like myself and market makers. Never once have I been squeezed on a stock. By this I mean you just keep ave-up shorting (better have the capital, savvy and be right). Ultimately, you'll win just like I did with AMSC from $18 to $43 to $2 (my target), and I fought some very big names and very deep long pockets including Kevin Douglas.
So my question to JJ is this: If Chang believes this time is different, why would he dump 25% of his "bet" at the beginning? Don't tell me diversification. He's the CEO. He's the guy telling Wall St. and investors: Hey, I am THE horse to back in this new, long-term, "it's different this time", datacom fueled boom. If you have balls, you continue to buy shares. If you're a wuss, you hold what you got. Unsure? You sell.
Chang and insiders dumped $19 million worth of shares--25% of Chang's position himself--right into the (key point) first rally after years of effort to raise AFOP awareness/stock price and after 2011's $20 to $7 collapse. People are supposed to believe these jokers?! Not me. You don't dump at the beginning of some new boom especially if you're the CEO and have any confidence in the bs you spew. And here, actions speak louder than words. Even the EVP got in one last mini-dump of 12,000 shares at $16.60 before Q4 bombs-away release. I guess he just couldn't resist.
Frankly, I think Chang is full of it. I think a big customer will pause, taper or otherwise, and Chang will have egg drop soup on his face. Either way he doesn't care: 25% is already off the table and he's laughing all the way to the bank. One thing is clear: he ain't buying shares even here at $11 vs. selling up at $23.
Sorry about your losses, jim. Truly I tried to warn folks.
You're at a very dicey pivot. While I have an $8 target on the shares only because it is "dogged hard." But then again, I do believe people are really selling it, market makers aren't supporting the price and shorts are piling on a bit. Nonetheless, shorts aren't covering they're adding.
The data is too early because it reflects pre-Q4 release. If by Feb 15 it's still high and going higher? Look out below. Options don't seem to indicate much either. But my fear for you longs is bad news will catch up. Admittedly, I'm guessing here. 100% guess. But why if this is the beginning of a new cycle would you EVER sell 25% of your holdings? Especially when AFOP has been dogged, ridden and put away wet nearly every day since the IPO. There's still a lot unexplained even for me. Nonetheless, if were CEO and things were going to get better, you bet I'd be buying and doing a buy-back: double fisted and really send the message.
The reality you longs are fighting is market makers. They supplied the liquidity from $12 to $23+ via short interest when no one wanted to sell. Now they're in the driver's seat and no holder(s) seem to want to yank the wheel. Look at CSCO results. Terrible. Stock fell
Bank on it.
All it would take is one big seller dumping a few million and the price would go under $1 instantly. Besides, Blackrock and a few others made big money selling as high as $40 back in the day. I was there shorting them and getting squeezed, so I know they can afford to take a few for the losing team now.
AMSC is done. These pumps-to-dump go nowhere and will end up lower and lower. Under a $1 soon. I had to laugh as the latest pump to make it more expensive tax loss sellers to get back onto this sinking ship! Bwhahahahahahahaha! Right back down. You're not missing anything nor will you ever miss anything until this goes bankrupt. Then you'll be missing the rest of your money. I told you, this company is most certainly done. I said this since $40 on down.
CLFD is almost at my price target which I might have to up from $26. It seems to respond properly to positive industry news (GOOG, FB), and yet AFLOP is still flopping and floundering down -50% post-pump-n-dump. So while this turd circles the drain, CLFD has rallied $17 to $26 in less than 2-months. Yep, just goes to show you better back the right horse to win the Fiber Boom 2.0 race.
So good luck pumping this career-long laggard AFLOP as lame as ever. Do yourself a favor. Call up a max chart, performance comparison between CLFD and AFOP. You'll see a great stock (CLFD) which insiders are buying at $20 vs. a laggard (AFLOP) which insiders dumped at $20. AFLOP even upped the divy $.05 to entice baggies with a $.15 dividend circa $18 before slamming them further -40% to $11. Of course, at $18 the stock had already tanked $6 or -25%.
Well, +3.4% today and only 90% more to go to get back to 52-wk high. Woohoo!
Convert holders will get the last laugh just like they did with OCLR. Insiders continue dumping shares just like AFOP insiders. Note in 2013: AFOP's CEO dumped 24%, EVP of Sales dumped 60% and CFO dumped 73%. There's confidence! It seems none of the insiders of these fiber firms believe in their own hype.
I think the bogus Fiber Boom 2.0 to nowhere will end just as tragically as the first one that never materialized. It's all dump into the last pump. AFOP insiders dumped into record results last year and the stock tanked over 52%. And it's still less than 50% of its IPO price over 13-years later. It's also over 40% diluted. And to add insult into baggies' injury, it diluted shareholders 7% in less than 10 months issuing stock-based comp of 1.2 million shares. Ironically, this is the exact same amount repurchased by the company from 2011-2012. The fools buying into the fiber rally to nowhere are being hoodwinked by insiders who are laughing all the way to the bank with your money.
When AFOP goes up to pump, not much stops it. I'm not debating great [read: record results]. I'm just stating the facts. Big investors rally AFOP and dump it. I watched it since the IPO. In fact, the first time I bought it for $1.40, I lost nearly 50% even when it had good results. The bottom-line is it gets pumped and dumped. I'm not arguing the pumps aren't dramatic. What I'm arguing is the dumps are always disastrous. So if you want to play with a POS stock that is an 8 time pump and dump special that drops 22% on a dubious "miss," feel free. I'm going to continue to warn people to avoid it because I know AFLOP. I know it so well I told you all to dump it from $23 on down (short it if you want to do what I did) and avoid it.
Comps are going to catch up and the growth rate won't be so attractive. This and there could easily be a huge lull in AFOP's revenues if just one big buyers pauses for a Q or two. These are just my personal observations. Do whatever you want, but just remember who called SELL AFLOP at $23+ and knows AFOP all too well.
Your point is correct, however, I'm arguing GAAP. GAAP eps in Q4 2013 was $0.26 per share based on 18.4 million shares outstanding. GAAP eps in Q4 2012 was $0.32 per share based on 17.5 million shares, excluding a one-time tax benefit, earnings were $0.11 per share.
Without question, revs and eps in 2013 look better. HOWEVER, I'm arguing GAAP plus I'm more focused on [5% more] dilution. 900,000 more shares in the denominator for just one year. Easily, one could argue AFOP is making a lot more profit, but the dilution is highly corrosive. As I've argued since the IPO, dilution is over 44%. This includes a buy-back. So it's actually diluted more but repurchased some shares to offset the "plundering" by insiders over 13+ years. This is fact. This is why it need to issue more shares and extend profit sharing plans expiring/running out of shares--to continue diluting.
Like I said, there's a lot more at play here than just impressive results which longs are obsessed with. I'm impressed. I get it. No arguments here. However, look at the lifecycle of this investment and it's not impressive. The stock would have to be over $70 just to break-even if you bought the IPO. So I'm not saying insiders haven't done a great job these last couple years; rather, I'm saying AFOP has been a terrible investment in general and it's something to avoid or short.
I'd gladly chance my tune if the facts supported otherwise. It so happens the market agrees with me which is why this turd stock is $11 vs. closer to $27.50 (IPO split-adjusted price). We'll forget I ever mentioned $70. Clearly AFOP is outperforming a lot of stocks operationally, but p/e, market cap, valuation, etc., it's a massive laggard. Just compare it to CLFD with $300M market cap or something off-fiber like EGHT with over $800M market cap. We won't compare it to ridiculous FNSR. Talk about over-bloated-valued. That has over $1.5 billion in losses and a $2.3 billion market cap! Great short with time.
FNSR's $1.5 billion in accumulated losses? lol Nice fundamentals. Just love those converts, too. They'll be the bane of Finasuckers' existence going forward. Seems the standard pump post-convert-deal is done, so now the nightmare starts.