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Talisman Energy Inc. Message Board

bighairybutt 69 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 5, 2014 5:12 PM Member since: Feb 4, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Did Argent overpay for acquisitions

    by bluedreamdreamer3 Apr 4, 2014 2:32 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Apr 5, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    Sell first thing on Monday. You didn't sell at $7, $6, $5, so maybe you better sell at $4 huh? Or you can wring your hands some more for a few more days and dump it later. I was just trying to get some of the panic stricken people out because I don't see any point in coming on the Board everyday with the BS. You almost sound like a short seller trying to make everyone believe the masses are going to sell if there is a distribution cut. It's getting a little old.

  • Reply to

    Did Argent overpay for acquisitions

    by bluedreamdreamer3 Apr 4, 2014 2:32 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Apr 5, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    I am waiting for people like you to get out, that will be a good time to increase my holdings. I really don't care if they cut the distribution, my major concern is the DRIP which needs to be done away with. If they need to adjust the distribution in order to eliminate DRIP, I am ready to buy a lot of this. The assets are trading very cheap, I doubt they will get a whole lot cheaper but we hopefully find out next week.

  • Reply to

    prospects from here on

    by nolevelplayingfield Apr 1, 2014 3:32 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Apr 4, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    You just proved you are clueless. The chances are very high we will see $7 during the next 12 months. Rigs are at a 20 year low as of today(316). There is no way they will maintain sufficient output to replace storage with the coal station closures, lack of western Hydro and increasing production decline. Gas is not going below $4. LNG plants being built will not be seeing the supply they need to take export.

  • bighairybutt bighairybutt Apr 3, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    I beleive you must be patience and wait for R/Ts to present a decent entry. With me, it's the yield and the expectation it will maintain for 90 days out. I don't really like the hedged model unless I am negative on the commodity and now I prefer to have exposure to the price, especially Natural Gas. On this, I am going to hang out and wait for sub $12, maybe it doesn't get there, but that is my game plan for the moment.

  • Reply to


    by artsbest Apr 3, 2014 9:19 AM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Apr 3, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    YOU may not give it any validity, but the fact is a lot of people trade on technicals and that is why you need to pay attention to this, or ignore at your own peril.

  • bighairybutt bighairybutt Apr 2, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    First, we need to maintain above $5.80, and we may test it for several days. If that holds, the gap between $6.40-6.60 is the next resistance, after we trade over the 200 day m/a which today sits at $6.28. Below the gap there were 2 heavy volume days of trading giving some resistance and we have already progressed though about half of that. We could trade up the $6.50 fairly quickly after we prove the breakout.

  • Clear breakout from 100 day M/A. Over the next month, we will trade up to the 200day/MA. First need to trade above $5.80 res.

  • Still other things you can buy with a 10% yield, so why would you buy at $12.40. This has to trade below $12 before I would get interested.

  • Reply to


    by bobbyjopro Mar 21, 2014 4:52 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 31, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    That is a good one, but it typically has a substantially lower yield. If you want to play Natural Gas, CRT and MTR are the best because they trade at a much higher yield than SJT. Both have some substantial capital appreciation upside as well if gas prices move higher.

  • Usually this would mean we trade to the 200 day M/A. Have to clear the $5.50-$5.85 area first. This has put a huge base in for 5 months, so when we do clear this area, it could be a substantial rally and perhaps a final bottom in the stock.

  • Did you hear them pumping, they are going to try and get this junk up so they can unload this garbage on the unsuspecting late to the market buyers. Distribution of their bad trades is the whole point of FAST MONEY.

  • Reply to


    by bobbyjopro Mar 21, 2014 4:52 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 26, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    The best is MTR which yields over 10% and most likely will stay at 9% minimum with the outlook for NG in 2014-15 as the storage deficit will provide support. About 25% of production is crude/liquids. The upside lies in the unhedged gas and the possibility of Mancos Shale exploitation in the future. This one offers the best downside protection based on the higher yield vs. other Royalty Trust, which I think is important if you are going to own these things. Based on the current month payout, this is yielding over 12% annualized. You earn the distribution monthly but it pays quarterly.

  • bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 26, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    The weekly chart is point to a big move with a serious narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, momentum is improving along with MACD. So I expect higher prices are ahead. Big base being built here and it could result in material price move once it plays out.

  • Reply to

    Huge volume differential in Call/Put April 27's

    by sandra888us Mar 26, 2014 11:29 AM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 26, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    I am selling the April $24. Happy to own it below $24. We are oversold but this looks like funds want to take this down. The $24 area should hold through options expiration. The 3 week RSI is 4.6, pretty oversold but during heavy liquidation you can get extremely oversold. Unlike the previous sell off in May '13, the volume so far is not very heavy, so no sign of panic selling. I think the stock stays under pressure short term, but this could turn out to be a good buying opportunity. April-May the stock is vulnerable to short sellers

  • Reply to


    by jawjmw Mar 21, 2014 4:21 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 24, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    I said my buy level for this was below $12.50, however based on the latest distribution and the question arising out of the new wells payout and decline rates, I am going to wait and see if we can trade below $12.
    I key on the yield in these trusts and I don't like to get in unless it is 8% or better and I am somewaht confident it will average that yield over the next 12 months. There aren't many like that, but it is worth waiting and buying only when you can enter in that situation. Only a few out there right now meeting that criteria.

  • Reply to

    Wow 7c

    by quantuon Mar 21, 2014 10:19 AM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 21, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Unfortunately, they give you the initial production on these wells but I don't see a way to track them on an ongoing basis to see how quickly they pay out and what the decline rate is. The initials look good but the decline rate is important along with how quickly the trust gets their investment back. Most drillers are going after the best stuff first for the best capital efficiency and recycle ratios, so I assume these wells will perform OK. In my opinion the yield is key along with the ability to EXPECT recurring yields going forward. That is why I am not in this until it goes lower. I like Gas more than Oil weighted at this point because of the potential upside and the resultant higher payout from the better pricing.

  • Reply to

    Wow 7c

    by quantuon Mar 21, 2014 10:19 AM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 21, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    I never buy this unless it is below 12.50 because the payout is so poor. I only hold trusts that pay out a 9% yield or higher. This is just too expensive right now. The other problem is they have a substantial hedge position in NG. I would rather play NG unhedged over the next couple of years and the market is showing much better fundamentals. The pure NG trusts are pretty cheap and have good yields, like MTR, it has conservatively a 9% yield and based on the current month more like a 12% yield.

  • Reply to

    do you buy or sell this trust?

    by bobbyjopro Feb 27, 2014 4:43 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 21, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    I like it below $13 if it gets there. Right now I prefer Natural Gas weighted trusts that don't hedge because Natural Gas will be a lot firmer going forward. So I would rather buy them where the commodity has some good upside on the price. The yields are pretty good on some of them right now.

  • bighairybutt by bighairybutt Mar 20, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    I haven't been in this for a long time but I like the outlook on NG. Can someone give me a feel for the outlook on the suit and possible impact on the value? Thanks

  • bighairybutt by bighairybutt Mar 20, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    Does anyone have an opinion as to when it most likely comes and a price range?

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