I read in the Financial Post, the discovery is 1.3 Billion bbls with 10 percent recoverable. 45% of that is 58.5Mbbls to TLM. So there is some confusion here about how much oil the discovery yields.
Back below normal next after a brief warmup. That pattern will produce HDD's well above normal which will keep the front end of gas well bid. Cash quotes are actually up today even with futures lower. Sunday night will bring a new forecast update, if below normal, futures will be firm next week. Next two weeks of EIA's will produce very large draws for this time of year. We could see a draw next week of 130-150bcf, huge for mid Nov.
I haven't looked closely at the hedge structure, however, the winter prices show good backwardation verses the 12 month strip. That would bring in some good revenue pick up for Dec-March. Should give some windfall for the next couple of quarters. If this colder than normal weather holds, the spread could grow substantially increasing the windfall.
Even with hedges, they will see a couple of quarters of windfall. Hedges are based on strip, so long front of NG against strip will give some good upside as well. Outright unhedged volume will give even greater improvement in cash flow. If this winter is colder than normal, the extra revenue from higher price will be substantial.
Getting rid of Schiller would boost the share price immediately in my opinion.
He is dug in like an Alabama tick. Don't expect him to give up easily, because the man has gotten rich of destroying investors. He is incompetent, but it is not going to be easy to move him out. Does anybody have an opinion how he can be fired? The BOD is clearly his handpicked buddies.
Isn't that the way it always is. The man most responsible for this debacle remains in place and meantime, he fires ordinary workers. Of course, they are probably part of the boat here, but lets get rid of Schiller and the lapdogs under him and install competent management.
The big holders are probably already talking. Of course, Schiller will attempt to keep them a bay, but he has to be running low on gas at this point.
One fool follows another. Schiller needs to be shown the door along with his lapdogs. This company needs a business man to run it.
I would think a 50% cut would be in order. All the company can do is minimum Capex. All cash flow need to go to pay down debt. Only wells that pay out fast can be drilled and I doubt even those make sense. Let the production suffer until oil recovers.
The man made a disasterous acquisition at a stupid price, has invested money in deep drilling that has been a total bomb and hasn't been able to execute one good quarter. He should resign.
Algos triggered a surge in the market not just EXXI. This really is not a market anymore, it is the rise of the machines and one day it will implode this entire market, question is when.
This company needs a competent, disciplined management to clean up Schiller's mess.
Correlated well with disasters. A few blips up but mostly PLUNGE. 60% in a 3 month period has to be perhaps the worse performance in a terrible sector.
NG is holding in well and once we exit the shoulder season, we should see prices up. So 30% of the production isn't suffering. I expect they will be cutting expenses to the bone along with a re-finance of the high cost debt. Smith told me the refinace will save at least $20 million a year in interest costs. Hopefully some further info from earnings. Schiller knows he has to deliver good news.
Seems insiders still were buying recently. They stand to loss even more now.
There is no way to know this but today's sell off has all the signs of a selling climax because of the very high volume. It is almost like some people final threw in the towel on this. We won't know that for a few days but let's hope we see a finish well off the lows. The selling in energy looks almost like what we saw in 2008, even with crude oil where it is, this seems totally out of proportion. Gas is holding in and should see higher in a month or so, so not all production is suffering price weakness.