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Talisman Energy Inc. Message Board

bighairybutt 102 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 11:06 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2010
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  • Reply to

    I have my eye on two downside price gaps

    by bighairybutt Mar 3, 2015 5:59 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 10, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    If you were going to swap out MEMP, I would have gone into EVEP instead. EVEP's yield for this year is pretty well set and they have assets for sale that will put them in good shape. LRE has unresolved issues that are still to be cleared up.

  • bighairybutt by bighairybutt Mar 9, 2015 5:47 PM Flag

    Borrow to the hilt, paying exorbitant interest rates to sell product at rock bottom prices. At least they were smart enough to make a timely asset sale.

  • bighairybutt by bighairybutt Mar 9, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    Natural Gas producers are trying very hard to destroy the what is left of their stock valuations. If they sold shares in Kamikaze airplanes you could probably have a better alternative investment. Paying out $Billions to acquire production properties at these commodity prices is a prescription to go out of business. Very stupid industry that makes the buyers rich at their continuing loss, going on 7 years now.

  • bighairybutt by bighairybutt Mar 9, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    I don't care what the reason, this company is so in debt even a complete recovery in crude would mean nothing. Schiller has rolled the dice but the losers will be the stockholders and debt holders not holding the most secure position.

  • Reply to

    I have my eye on two downside price gaps

    by bighairybutt Mar 3, 2015 5:59 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 9, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    Here is where we could settle out for a few days given proximity of 50 day moving average. We are trading a few cents under it right now, but we could hold it for a while. I still think that last gap will eventually get filled, most likely when this present move down continues. The bottom pickers have taken on some length in all these upstream MLPs, some could get shaken out as the commodity appears quite weak.

  • Reply to

    Upstream MLP comparisons as of Q4 guidance

    by griffin.mungus Mar 7, 2015 4:13 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 9, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    Of all the MLPs, I find EVEP the most interesting right now, simply because they have some assets to sell that are substantial and could transform the outlook quite positively. Currently, offering an attractive yield as well. 2016 hedge coverage is not good, but the assets outweigh that disadvantage in my opinion. I have written calls on all my MLPs because there is no sign the price bounce will advance further given the supply overhang.

  • Reply to

    What's a better bottom?

    by fullkip Mar 5, 2015 10:35 AM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 5, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    A much better play for about the same price is EC. Exposure to refining(recent expansion of capacity), and Brent pricing helps. Dividend is about 7% at these levels after being reduced in recent announcement. BTE is interesting but I am holding off to see if we retest the lows of Dec.

  • Reply to

    With their cash

    by wjschnieder Mar 4, 2015 11:52 AM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 4, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Have you seen their debt? I don't think MGT wants to jump back into the indebtedness hole right now given the history here. The shares held up well in the commodity meltdown, playing some catchup right now. Better to keep dry powder with these low commodity prices.

  • Reply to

    The call

    by griffin.mungus Mar 4, 2015 10:36 AM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 4, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    I am very happy to be out of this until it reaches more attractive levels. They really only have one thing going for them, the hedges.....but as time goes by they mean less and the existing commodity prices mean more. If I were the company, I would halve the distribution and get on with putting things on a more solid footing for dealing with a problematic commodity outlook. I, like you have no interest in this until we reach the $6 handle.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by kolizacr Mar 3, 2015 7:36 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 4, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    I don't. But you can call the Bank NY Mellon ADR Department and get it. I don't know if their is a the treaty protocol i between Columbia and U.S.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by kolizacr Mar 3, 2015 7:36 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 3, 2015 7:49 PM Flag

    I get $1.041124 using an exchange rate of: 1.00 COP = 0.000391489 USD. About a 7% yield as of today's price. Fortunately, I didn't buy until today, but even at $17, not a bad yield.

  • One around $7.42, the other around $6.38. Good chance we fill those between now and the next ex-div.

  • Reply to

    Rig count

    by jbcguy Feb 27, 2015 1:22 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Mar 2, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    //www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-02/crude-carnage-continues-amid-saudi-production-storage-limits

  • bighairybutt bighairybutt Feb 27, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    More about the strong production which refilled storage from an extremely low level in 2014, and has kept a damper on prices this year. They keep growing supply so much that the prices can't even make a modest correction. Western demand is not the key to market strength, when we finish the withdrawal season this year will go down as one of the coldest of the last 20 years(or possibly longer), If we had the production levels of last year the price would be $2 higher, at least.

  • Drill-till-you drop pricing is beginning to take a toll on these highly indebted companies. CHK getting hammered too. But in the long run, raising production constantly and dropping prices is a strategy to go out of business. These fools can't hope to drop costs enough to make sense in this market. Second winter of very cold weather and we are sitting practically at the lows of the least 6 years

  • Reply to

    Rig count

    by jbcguy Feb 27, 2015 1:22 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Feb 27, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Even though crude is up, April-May WTI spread is widening...... That portends lower prices ahead.

  • bighairybutt bighairybutt Feb 26, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    The problem with some of these MLPs, with options, is the liquidity and the wide bid-ask spreads. When I write options, I like to know I can buy them back if circumstances change....but in this MLP the quotes you get frequently are totally stupid. I just made a judgement call that it wouldn't make sense for this to trade much higher given what I see happening. Naturally, I could be wrong. But, Oil can't rise much while inventories are building at this rate, there could be substantial downside associated with the next two crude contracts, particularly when we get close to expiration.

  • Reply to

    Oil

    by jbcguy Feb 26, 2015 5:39 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Feb 26, 2015 7:33 PM Flag

    Not at crude storage at Cushing is dedicated to crude deliverable against the CME contract. Total shell capacity for crude is a little over 70 million barrels, storage at Cushing as of last Friday was 48 million. With 20M/bbls of storage left we are getting close to a problem with an expiring contract possibly having some issues with serious volatility. A problem will come in advance of storage totally filling. The April-May spread spiked today and it will most likely widen further.

  • bighairybutt bighairybutt Feb 26, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    I got out of this, after this run, I don't think there is much upside. I don't like the the unanswered questions and the build in Cushing is approaching problematic levels. Even with good hedges, all oil/gas issues will get hit hard if we return to last month's lows. I wouldn't get back in until sub $7.

  • Reply to

    Upgrades and Price Target Increases

    by edelhead Feb 26, 2015 1:37 PM
    bighairybutt bighairybutt Feb 26, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    They are well hedged, but not forever. One has to guard against the idea that MEMP is without risk. They don't have much of a buffer with DCF around 1.0. I have to believe, if the commodity returns to the lows, or worse, this price level won't hold.

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