You would never know it in Alabama.. it is smoking hot
He is a 10 year old under the care of a baby sitter on daddy's computer bull shooting all day with no money and no life
There are thousands of drilled and capped wells. NG is oversupplied period. Production of additional gas despite the extreme decline curve is so elastic, it goes to $3 and bamm, look at all this production. Eventually you are going to be correct but the futures curve says it will be a long time. If LNG would kick in like I thought is was this year but if it has hasn't seemed to matter, and power plants move over to NG, at some point the demand will outstrip the supply and price will go up. Otherwise this is a #$%$ shoot off the bottom,
If anyone makes money with these UGAZ and UWTI ect...give it up. It is not because you are smart or can see potential or it is cheap relative to others. You are lucky and that is it. I am hoping to get lucky again here but it is luck and luck only.
One very important element you left out...expectations. The report Thursday could be bullish and UGAZ fall further or it could be bearish and UGAZ rally. No one knows where expectations are priced in. The question is what is the aggregate marginal cost for 1 MCF of NG. Unhedged production will fall off the planet at that point. I think this exercise by Saudi not to cut oil (and by derivative NG) last year is all about this one issue. Some Oil NG drillers need to die but cheap money keeps coming and so we have misallocation of capital all over the place. Rest assured it will get fixed one day when no one expects it
Lighten up on the Adderall braw...geeez. If you have all the answers, just go long DGAZ. We appreciate your kindness
and a legend in their own mind. It is a #$%$ shoot.....but know this you will always buy too late and sell too early....that is a fact with NG
Guys we have all learned here, sell and reinvest what you have left, This is toast. Growth in reserves is a smoke screen.....someone else with pump and sell that gas. Hope dies hard
That is media hype or sensationalism. I will believe that when I see it. What SA is trying to do is analyze what the actual marginal costs of US oil production is and that is where production over time will fall off the cliff. What SA may find is it is much lower than they have thought. And then OPEC plays their next hand. SA is loosing all over the world right now to other OPEC countries. The risk here with UWTI is that the train leaves the station and you are not on it. Decay is sitting on the bus waiting in dead of summer in Terrebonne Parrish LA. This is a pain trade until it isn't....so its a trade not an investment
It seems if oil floats up....seems to have a hard time getting out of its own way....is it momentum only? So if oil trickles to 70/bl we could still be sitting at 3? Any comments appreciated
Boy I sure will miss her
One reason the dollar may be surging is since Oil is $$ denominated asset, demand is up big for shorts to buy oil contracts to cover. Just a thought. I believe that was true yesterday since they were both up big.