haha that is what they should do. Personally I like the tender offer for 14.91 by a wealthy liberal to screw with rich republican campaign donations by Simmons
all one has to do is release a tender offer for $14.91 per share of at most 20 million shares. In effect forcing the valuation of VHI to be 14.91 at both the time of death and the 6 month alternative date. Just a thought...
True, could be a buyer who has been watching. this is a rather famous American fortune and I am sure many people follow Harold Simmons and his deals. it just seems odd to me how limited the price movement has been. staying in a tight range throughout all of this selling. But could just be a big buyer.... I have no issue with it... seems to me to be a great buying opportunity
That's my question too! Obviously someone has agreed to buy, in the market, all these shares at the $5.00 - 5.20 range or else the price would have fallen much more from all this selling IMO
Right, you would expect with more than triple the volume and almost all that being selling pressure, the price would fall 5-10%. So definitely must be a buyer with some kind of relationship to the Simmons purposely buying at the 5 - 5.2 range. If there was not a buyer going along with this plan, then the sell of 2 million shares would definitely bring this stock to the low 4's or even 3's IMO. Just too much selling pressure on a stock that has little of any volume on a normal day to support this kind of selling and too much resistance at the 5 level to explain with random buying and selling seen in most stocks.
Correct me if I am wrong; It seems to me that there is a difference between the Harold Simmons Trust No. 2 and the Harold Simmons Foundation. Could it be that the Harold Simmons Foundation is selling all of their shares to the Harold Simmons Trust No. 2? What exactly is the difference between these two...
Just to throw in some numbers:
On December 28 price was 14.91. So the value of the investment in VHI would be 3.7 billion. Assuming 40% tax, taxes would be 1.5 billion.
Now, assuming the price next Friday to be 5; the value of investment in VHI would be about 1.6 billion. Which would correspond to a tax of about 640 million assuming 40% rate.
The estate would will have saved around 860 million in taxes on VHI investment.
Ahhh, now that would be very very crafty.... I think you are right, another associated trust or indirect party buying the shares sold. Perfect way to avoid hundreds of millions in taxes owed to the IRS by the estate. You've got to admit, they are smart. I just want to buy at the lowest possible price and I feel that there is resistance at the 5.00 level. But there is not really a limit on how low they are willing to go.
IMO making Contran even bigger and more powerful was/is the goal of Simmons. So taking VHI private is just a part of the plan. And with over 94% ownership, it's the only logical next step. So what is the best way to do this and at what price will it be done? And when?
1. Contran buying the remaining shares outright for a certain price, soon.
2. VHI has 4 million shares authorized for share buyback. Rather than Contran paying for all the estimated remaining 13.4 shares, couldn't VHI first buyback 4 million of those. Thus, only 9.4 million shares left. Then let's say Contran decides to buy the shares back at $9. Thus it would only take $85 million to make this a private company. If VHI did not buyback those shares, then at $9 it would cost Contran around $121 million. But I guess the question is whether to use VHI cash or not. In the end, being privately owned by Contran I don't think it would matter. Even better for Contran, let VHI buyback all it can with available cash (say 10 million shares). Leaving only 3.4 million shares left.
Once VHI has been gobbled up by Contran, KRO, CompX, and NL are next...
My guess of $9 is just a guess. Any other suggestions? Also, how low do you think they will push the price? $5 as someone suggested, or lower? There seems to be alot of buying and resistance at the $5.10 level
Yes, I want to know who is buying the shares. Is it a few people or thousands. My guess is only a few, considering the level of interest in the message boards. And more than likely they are investors who know this stock is worth much more than 5. Also, I doubt the trust will continue selling after June 28. Which means after the selling stops, there will be very little selling pressure. I feel bad for the stockholders who bought last year, however, right now is a chance to make up their losses IMO.
If it does go private, I would guess 8-9+ range, depending on the price of KRO. If the price is not an honest appraisal, then there are things minority shareholders can do with their Appraisal Rights if they believe the value is not fair. My guess is the trust will try to avoid any lawsuits. What do you think is the value of VHI? Just quickly looking at Yahoo stats shows the enterprise value to be 3.1 billion. What we need is a shareholder activist to step in to push price to fair value.
And just asking, what are some benefits to taking VHI private?