A big jump in GSK volume (but not in price) today. I'll bet we get more of a pop tomorrow if this rumor seems to have legs.
What does anyone think of this analysis on Seeking Alpha. It's an impressive array of stats, but who knows?:
BP: Default Probabilities Have Risen And The Implied Rating Is At Its Lowest Level In A Decade by Donald van Deventer
Take the short/long term gain. Nothing wrong with that. As for me:
- First, a drop in PCI's NAV from $24/$25 isn't a reason to panic. It's a reason to buy more. Nothing wrong with buying something at a discount.
- Second, PCI is still a new fund so it hasn't gotten the analyst/investor attention PHK has and it may take more time to establish a track record that warrants a premium
- Third, a fund selling for a 60% premium over NAV is an accident waiting to happen, so as wonderful as the premium may seem (and I own some PHK) that fund is in more urgent need of activist investor intervention than PCI regarding boosting the NAV.
- Fourth, Bill Gross bought a ton of PCI in the $24 range for personal accounts so he must have seen some potential for a higher valuation, not to mention enjoying the income stream.
My understanding is that CEFs often sell at a discount to NAV, in part because of the amount of leverage they employ. This Ironsides move seems like it's out of the Carl Icahn playbook and looks like a self-serving shakedown with possibly short term consequences that don't amount to much.
People have short memories and are easily-panicked herd animals. Company news only gets priced in for a while and then investors forget about it until they're reminded again (in this case, about the government run at the coal industry). I would keep an eye on insider buying/selling. There's a lot of insider ownership by ARLP brass; if they start bailing, we're in real trouble.
It is remaking itself with recent divestitures and acquisitions. It is focusing on its vaccines business and will be a bigger player there and I think they are also beefing up their consumer division. They seem to be on the right track.
There has always been a lot of relatively stable insider ownership of this stock. If they start selling in a big way, it's a sign they're getting worried but I don't see any significant sales. On the other hand, there haven't been any significant purchases recently, either.
Article in Bloomberg. Between bungled mergers that cost us $6 billion in cancellation fees and now this little annoyance, someone at the top at that company has got to go.
SeaDrill said -- and did -- the same thing regarding maintaining their dividend through 2016 and then proceeded to do the old switcheroo a few weeks later and cancelled the dividend completely. At least we're still getting a partial dividend, but what a haircut!