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Dyax Corp. (DYAX) Message Board

billa_from_sf 101 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Oct 2, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Maybe PLUG is fairly valued at $1.69?

    by md982735 Feb 3, 2016 8:19 AM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf 6 hours ago Flag

    I agree.

    In March, 2014 we were in the midst of QE2. Tons of free money was sloshing around Wall Street looking for windfall profits. PLUG was a highly speculative stock in the alternative energy sector that had recently inked a multi-year contract with Walmart and was running. Five times (!) PLUG's float changed hands in one day at the height of that run-up, a phenomenon that can only be driven by Wall Street trading desks handing PLUG back and forth until they finally took their profit and dumped it. The endless accusations that retail investors bought at that top are just silly.

    But PLUG is worth more -- I would say about 2.00 more -- today than the 0.40 I paid for it when whether the company would even survive was in question. And if the company meets its goals for 2016, it should be worth another couple of dollars above that. Plug is growing rapidly, executing their business plan successfully, and making progress on many fronts from engineering to lease-back financing. But it is still not making a profit, and profits are what drive stock valuations.

    Andy and Paul's prediction of break-even by the end of 2016 is based on much stronger fundamentals than Andy's prediction in Q4 2013 of break-even in 2014, which was based on one big sale. That sale was big. It saved Plug from oblivion and set the stage for significant progress since then. I think Andy's excitement at the time is understandable. It was a watershed moment in the company's history. Air Liquide certainly thought so, and I think they were right.

    Now Plug has a realistic shot at becoming profitable. So yes, it is probably worth 2.00 or so. PPS is drastically under pressure today because the entire market is being hammered by global economic performance worries. Look at TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, NFLX, FB -- monster high-fliers that have been driving the bull market. They, and we, are all being clobbered as risk assets have been falling out of favor.

  • billa_from_sf by billa_from_sf Feb 2, 2016 2:47 PM Flag

    . . . for a Feb. 2, 2016 Reuters article: "Fearing lean times, U.S. companies tighten purse strings"

    From the article:
    "Companies in industries as diverse - and relatively strong - as healthcare, consumer goods and restaurants are among those tightening their belts in yet another sign that economic growth in 2016 may be anemic."

    Time will tell if the value proposition Plug Power offers will outweigh customers' belt-tightening this year. I do not claim to know whether it will or won't, but I am sure that the answer to this question is not a forgone conclusion.

  • Reply to

    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!

    by billa_from_sf Jan 13, 2016 8:41 PM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Feb 2, 2016 9:25 AM Flag

    You realize, I hope, that this is me imitating the seriously deranged bashers who frequent this board. The stock market is a roller coaster. Wins and losses can be dramatic and are temporary. Only a sick person tries to make someone feel bad when a stock they bought goes down. Note how quiet bashers are when PLUG goes up.

  • billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Feb 1, 2016 7:29 PM Flag

    Randy Whats-his-name might have bought PLUG for 156.00 in January, 2000, failed to cut his losses when it retraced, and is emotionally incapable of letting it go. Other than that, working for a hedge fund short is the only explanation I can think of.

  • billa_from_sf by billa_from_sf Jan 29, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Having to replace defective Ballard stacks deployed in legacy GenDrives put an unexpected drag on service margin. Plug buying high-quality membranes from 3M and building their own stacks will eliminate this cost.

    Some of the bashers on this board are frighteningly disturbed -- so rabid and irrational all you can do is put them on ignore. The cruelty some of these characters express indicates dangerously intense feelings of inadequacy.

    BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL!!!!!!!!!!

  • billa_from_sf by billa_from_sf Jan 28, 2016 9:30 AM Flag

    Don't expect the bashing to stop, however. Successful transition from lead acid batteries to fuel cells in the material handling market threatens fossil fuel dominance and EV's share of the transportation market. All that is needed is abundant green H2, like from HYSR, and 11.00 will be a bump in the road.

  • Reply to

    toast

    by flexed1962 Jan 21, 2016 10:42 AM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 21, 2016 9:12 PM Flag

    Relax. If they pull this off, you will make money. If they run out of backers or their backers run out of money, you will loose the spare change you bet on this.

  • billa_from_sf by billa_from_sf Jan 20, 2016 3:15 AM Flag

    Good time to be short.

  • Unfortunately H2 is an energy product, so Plug and the rest of the H2 sector are being hammered as well. If a stock you own is getting clobbered, the first place to look for a reason if there is no news is the indexes. Trying to make this decline about Plug Power is rather silly. Plug's fundamentals have not changed. The market is in a risk-off tailspin. I personally think we have significant downside ahead until Plug finally turns a profit. We might rally on better gross margins, but that will never satisfy the shorts, who unfortunately are in control of this stock. It would be nice to pick the bottom, but in a market hoping to rebound on China stimulating its faltering economy, that is not going to be easy to do.

  • billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 16, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    All the more reason to continue migrating their lift truck fleet to GenDrive. They are trying to save money, right? GenDrive saves them money.

    The Chicken Littles on this board have to understand that a stock swinging down doesn't mean its pps going to zero. A company that is downsizing is not going out of business. Walmart is the biggest retailer in the world. Relax. The money they save on the stores they close they will spend on GenDrives.

  • Reply to

    My take

    by zkeithnewman Jan 15, 2016 2:52 PM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 3:47 PM Flag

    BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL...!!!

    :-)

  • billa_from_sf by billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 3:40 PM Flag

    Looking good if it holds.

  • What are those? The owner if the hedge fund I am bashing for said PLUG IS GOING TO ZERO!!!!! because of BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    Some Hedge Funds Are In Trouble...

    by justmeinvesting222 Jan 13, 2016 2:51 PM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    It is inevitable.

  • billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    Dollar cost averaging gets you in without swallowing a mountain of risk in one gulp. Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying, but go easy in case you move too soon.

    BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL!!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    just another day the shorts can"t cover

    by dubs35007 Jan 15, 2016 2:16 PM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    Excellent point.

    BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    THE REAL REASON!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 9:24 AM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 9:29 AM Flag

    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha !!!!!!!!!!

    BAG HOLDERS!!!!!!!!

    BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL!!!!!!!!!!

    I AM SO SMART!!!!!! SO SMART!!!!!! SO SMART!!!!!! SO SMART!!!!!!

    BUBBLE TOP!!!!!! BUBBLE TOP!!!!!! BUBBLE TOP!!!!!! BUBBLE TOP!!!!!!

  • billa_from_sf by billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 9:24 AM Flag

    PLUG IS GOING TO ZERO!!!!!!!! BECAUSE BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL!!!!!!!!!!

    THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PLUG!!!!!!!!!!!! -----
    "Indexes set for steep drop at open as crude plunges"

    PLUG IS GOING TO ZERO!!!!!!!! BECAUSE BUBBLE TOP KEY REVERSAL!!!!!!!!!!

    PLUG IS GOING TO ZERO!!!!!!! BECAUSE CEO!!!!!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!

    by billa_from_sf Jan 13, 2016 8:41 PM
    billa_from_sf billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 12:25 AM Flag

    - bump -

  • billa_from_sf by billa_from_sf Jan 15, 2016 12:23 AM Flag

    BUBBLETOP!!!! BUBBLETOP!!!!

    My Plug ymb page consists of THIRTY lines that say "Topic hidden because you ignored this user"

    Infantile morons.

    BUBBLETOP!!!! BUBBLETOP!!!!

DYAX
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