For you newbies this is a cut from an old post of mine and I reposted it about a month ago. Search if you want to see the whole thing.
There has been a lot of speculation about the actual cost of producing oil on this board so I looked up the actual costs from the Department of Energy (if you believe the government) this is what they say.
Middle East oil $10 to $36 ..........av $27
Shelf oil $23 to $68 .....................av $41
Heavy oil $32 to $58 ...................av $47
Russian oil $28 to $70 ................av $50
On shore RoW $23 to $72 ..........av $51
Deep water $23 to $72 ...............av $52
Ultra deep water $41 to $70 .......av $56
NAm shale $52 to $72 ................av $65
Oil sands $50 to $80 ...................av $70
Arctic $48 to $88 ........................av $75
Yes,,,, It is being pumped right now. Get out on the pump before it's dumped. Here is a copy of a pro pumpers e-mail.
Reasons Why I See Short-Term Upside Potential In CALI:
* CALI has an extremely tiny float, just 2.39M shares. This increases upside volatility opportunity.
* CALI has quite a few major rally points under its belt. In early April the play rallied from 1.75 to 1.90 for 9% gains. In early January it rallied from 2.40 to 3.00 providing gains of 25%.
* CALI had another big rally in October when it rallied from 45 cents to 79 cents for gains of 75%. This was a really big one.
* CALI is setting up for what looks like another move higher based on recent consolidation. If valuation surpasses 1.85 it could result in a massive new leg up to the 2.10 region for realistic 13% gains, a 47% increase from current valuations. Remember, price has memory.
* CALI is trading on a 54 RSI with past overbought conditions arising at near 70 RSI on the daily chart.
CALI Gets Bullish On New Chinese Free Trade Zone
CALI reports that it anticipates a positive impact over time from the decision by China's State Council to create a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in Tianjin modelled on the year old pilot FTZ in Shanghai.
The Company said the new Tianjin FTZ encompasses CALI's Tianjin Airport International Automall, as well as the International Automall owned and operated by Tianjin Binhai International Automall (Binhai), CALI's strategic partner in a new retail auto sales business launched in November.
CALI is ripe to provide upside opportunity, but don't forget to protect your position with stop limits!
Last Trade: 1.38 | SEC Filings | Latest News
Too small and sits on his mama's porch with his solar power laptop. Now known as guint, he gave up on IVO (so did we).
Trading on this stock is very limited due to it's small market cap. 100 share blocks are the norm a 21K share trading day is high. Lately it has been 6~7K trading which isn't much. No one convinced to buy or sell. I have had a 3,000 share order out there for several days I am about ready to cancel and give up on (@ $9.70). I don't know why it doesn't show, it is through Scottrade.
That is a pretty risky bet with your future. I would suggest 10%, but no more. What if they come up with a replacement for solder and need much less silver for that? What if some other alloy replaces the need for other applications? That has already happened to silver a number of times. Photographic film and X-Rays all used to use silver, but no more.10% ~ 20%should be mixed in all different asset classes. If you don't already own a home that should be your very first investment.
Real estate has been my very best investment. Sometimes its a pain, but most of the time it is a cash cow.
Thanks for the warning, but with the cost very near the actual cost of production I cannot imagine it going much lower than it is right now. Like I said above there are a lot of reasons it could go higher with little downside risk. It makes no sense for banks to continue to hold a short position at these levels. Don't the regulators have a problem with that kind of investment? Maybe just the investment banks?
Okay, I'm a newbie to SLV and I'll give you that satisfaction. Not a huge trade for me, but an opening position. I have also held physical gold for a long time. Some of my bars/coins still have their price on them. Most in the $600 OZ range. Should have traded them, but I don't need the money and they cost me very little with the cost of money being what it is.
When SLV got down to close to the production cost I decided to add some to my portfolio. Since SLV is liquid there is no need to go to my safe deposit box or pay the VIG to a coin shop or Victor.
If the economy starts improving globally and manufacturing takes off SLV should have a lot of up-side. If the zero interest rate situation causes inflation there is also room for a move. Global instability is better for gold, but silver will also benefit. Only possible downside is a dramatic change in interest rates.
So, a newbie who sees very little downside and the potential for a good upside. My CPA tax person doesn't like the added forms, but she sleeps with me so I guess I am forgiven.
I held a call position for a few days just prior to the earning release, to cover my put position I have held for 6 months. That was the only time I was long SDRL and made money on the trade. Had you been in this board for ANY length of time or done any research you would know that. You must be a recent short that explains your rude, apprehensive and thoughtless posts. I will ignore you because quite simply you are not worth spending any time on trying to educate.
Thank you sir. I was a little taken back by the numbers too. I was feeling all sorry for the poor oil companies until I read the truth about what it actually costs them and what we pay.
I was shopping for oil today to change the oil in my wifes car and I saw a 55 gallon drum of oil offered from a retailer and it was $1,500 (full synthetic name brand). By the time anything gets to the actual consumer it is marked-up pretty well. For the nit-pickers, yes I know synthetic is different. Just a sticker shock note.
Also if you have followed anything I have ever written here (new guy) you would have seen that I am holding (10) $10 July Put contracts that I have been holding since SDRL was at $30. I have posted that here many times and for people who have been around a while they all know this. Read the information I posted and use it or ignore it, but don't insult me by calling me a pumper or that I ever "Tricked" anybody into doing anything. It just makes YOU look stupid.
I wondered who gave me the only negative feedback, guess this explains it. I wasn't pumping anything, just trying to provide useful information and most appreciated the information. Go sleep it off, seems an apropo tag for you so follow it where it leads you.
That is certainly a possibility, but I would also consider oil staying range bound in the $50~$70 price range and thus making a market equilibrium an equally likely outcome.
SDRL's debt was not any part of this post. It was information about production cost that was for thoughtful consideration and I assure you it was not done with any sort of preconceived intent nor "blindly".
We are much alike, except I only boughtcalls once and I bought 5 calls as some insurance on my 10 puts just before the earnings call. When I did the above research I thought about buying below $10, but the thought of BK kept me out.
Titus, I thought you were short this? I am still holding my July $10 puts. They were worth quite a bit when this was in the dumps, but I am only into them for pennies (got them when SDRL was at $30). But after I did this research, SDRL seemed like it might be able to struggle through the oil slump. Well if it gets down to $9 again I will close my puts and go long, but I can't be long and short at the same time.
Good luck to you, which ever side you are on!