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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

billknight3402 188 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 43 minutes ago Member since: Dec 1, 2006
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  • billknight3402 by billknight3402 Jan 19, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    There has been a lot of speculation about the actual cost of producing oil on this board so I looked up the actual costs from the Department of Energy (if you believe the government) this is what they say.
    Middle East oil $10 to $36 av..........$27
    Shelf oil $23 to $68 av..........$41
    Heavy oil $32 to $58 av..........$47
    Russian oil $28 to $70 av..........$50
    On shore RoW $23 to $72 av..........$51
    Deep water $23 to $72 av .........$52
    Ultra deep water $41 to $70 av..........$56
    NAm shale $52 to $72 av..........$65
    Oil sands $50 to $80 av..........$70
    Arctic $48 to $88 av .........$75
    These numbers are from their website so if anyone wants to argue go to them. The reason for the range of numbers is location, transportation (access to pipelines etc,) and productivity.
    They also note that changes in sand and drilling techniques have made North American shale oil less expensive while drilling rates and transportation costs have made off shore oil slightly more expensive.
    They also note drill rig counts have been decreasing sharply and may stabilize the price. .
    I was wrong in some of my posts and so were all others. Hopefully this clears it up once and forall. I spent some time doing this for everyone.

    It looks to me that almost everyone should be able to live with $50 oil but some of the higher cost wells
    above the $50 price will be losing money and will be shut down until they are profitable. A max number of about $75 bbl is where I think we will end up based on this, not $100 or $150. In fact it looks like we have been getting screwed for a long while.

  • billknight3402 by billknight3402 Jan 8, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    Put some of this cheap oil in the ground (Strategic Oil Reserve). If he had half a brain it could be filled up and stabilize the price of oil and all the jobs and companies that depend on it. Nope, off to his lame duck abode. Even at $50 a barrel deep sea oil makes no sense and the way we are pumping it the price will stay flat until 2016 unless something drastic happens.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 22, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    He already knows, he has been in this puppy as far back as Yahoo keeps records. Audio too and ibodirect probably owns nothing, I looked at his posts and he lives in Brazil said he made $47K on a $100K investment, bought his daughter a new car with his trades that were obvious losers and he covered that by saying he was in and out 20+ times. Total BS and pain by all. They call everyone rude names and slam them with flack. I don't know how I got drawn into this. Before SDRL I only looked at message boards for sentiment, but this has drawn me in for some unknown reason. I should just STOP THIS!!

  • billknight3402 by billknight3402 Jan 27, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    SDRL is looking like it may have found a short term bottom of $10. While USO is down 51% for the year and SDRL is down 71%; in the last 5 days USO is down 3.6% and SDRL only down .74%. So it seems to be holding here for a while which should give the longs a chance to reassess their positions and set n exit strategy.
    It could also mean that SDRL earnings may be better than expected in his current environment due to their long term contacts, as many of the longs here have been saying for a long while.
    This situation is making me consider closing my puts here (at a profit) and wait until after the earnings call and then probably re-establish them at a further date in the future. I will wait for an opportunity to make these changes as I do still have a long time before July, but not too long before the earnings call.
    I thank the courteous longs for their insight and while I understand those who have been discourteous have been hurt, that is no excuse for some of the things that have been said. What would your mother say!

  • billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 10, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    SDRL did not stop their div to save money. They did it because they had been borrowing money to pay the div and simply could not borrow any more. Fredriksen wanted to keep paying it (because he owns so much SDRL) and a long time friend of his and board member of SDRL quit because of his position on this matter.
    You have a small position with only a small loss. Take the loss now and watch..
    The reason for the drop is totally due to the price of crude. At $100 BBL SDRL makes sence. At anything less than $70 BBL SDRL does not make sense. With the oversupply of drillships in the market now (and more coming) and the cap X spending cuts that are going on now SDRL will not be around by the end of the year (IMO). Throw in their massive debt and the looming interest rate hikes as well as many lenders no longer willing to service high risk loans and you should be able to easily see why SDRL has been, and will continue to drop.
    Throw in a narcissist at the helm and you should be able to see that there are plenty of good high quality investments around that make a lot more sense than SDRL. SDRL is a classic value trap.
    Yes, I am short via July 15 $10 puts that I bought for nothing to try and convince a friend to sell his SDRL shares months ago. If you want to buy SDRL, do as I advised my friend at $28. Sell it now and wait to see what price oil stabilizes at. Oil may be NEAR a bottom here but it may also fall further. One thing is for sure, SDRL and their customers cannot make money on deep water drilling at current prices and oil prices are likely to stay at these levels for a time period.
    I know this will anger many narcissist share holders here because they are trying to believe in their losses going away somehow but there has been a secular decline in oil that will not stop and the longer they hold the more they will lose. Get out now Paul don't go down with the ship!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    MOLIBDENOS owns 46,700,700 shares

    by cruelly_malicious Dec 2, 2014 7:51 PM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Dec 3, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    Look at a 5 day chart. $1.08 high $.90 low Now in the middle at $.98, That is a lot of swing for a day trader to use. I am loving this!

  • billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 22, 2015 9:17 PM Flag

    Debt is a big issue, but in 2015 drill rates and keeping drillships with work will be as important. If all their new ships are parked or drilling at a lower rate this will crash in a short period of time. If oil goes back up to the $70 range they may survive, but I am enjoying cheap gas.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to


    by billknight3402 Jan 15, 2015 10:12 AM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 15, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    No that is not what I said. I said capex spending for DEEP water drilling will be cut back substantially and day rates for the work that is left will have to be cut. With reduced day rates and less drilling and a huge debt to service (without any interest rate increases) will be unmanageable. Those that fall into this category will fail. That is how our economy works. Those that can survive three to five years will be winners. I doubt if SDRL falls into the latter category.

  • billknight3402 by billknight3402 Jan 15, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    I wish I could see a lot less emotion here. Yesterday SDRL was down 10 cents today it is up 10 cents but it sure seems to be a lot more emotional than it should be (either way). There could (and should) be a real emotional response it oil moved up $10 (not $1). I personally do not see the $70~$80 price of oil coming back for a lot more than a year. I also see it stuck in the $50~$60 range for the foreseeable future. That is why I will remain on the put side of this stock. I do not think SDRL will be able to survive. Maybe longer than my July option expiration, but not until oil is profitable for them to get much of the deep sea drilling it will take to keep all of their exuipment busy in the new more competitive landscape.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to


    by mrsetion Jan 6, 2015 11:25 AM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 6, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    Wise decision. I have a friend in this POS who is a stubborn German and I have been trying to get him to sell it since $30. I think it is going to zero!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Correction in California steeper than imagined

    by norrishappy Jan 28, 2015 9:30 AM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 28, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    San Diego is a great place to live all year round.

  • Reply to

    SDRL is a dividend stock

    by twitbum Jan 7, 2015 1:44 PM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 7, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    I do not think SDRL will survive and so I am betting against it.. Yes, I am short, via puts (July 15, 10's) that one of your stock holders sold me.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 20, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    You can sell and still be in the lawsuit. You need only to have purchased during the effective dates and suffered a loss in the share value because of it.

  • billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 13, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    Common sense. Rare on this board. But I am sure if I owned it I would be shaking in my boots on 2/26.

  • Reply to

    i am ALL CASH again !!!!!

    by ivodirect Jan 16, 2015 1:17 PM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 16, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    You posted many times here all the way down so you are a long way from getting close to even, I looked at your earlier posts about HLF and you posted there all the way down too calling people idiots . Now bagging about making enough to buy a car? PLEASE If you really are an investor I am surprised you have any money left. This little bounce is hardly worth shouting about. You are just like a school girl and you will no doubt slam me too with some idiotic comeback. GROW UP!!! You make me sick with your posts.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    its still not too late to sell !

    by titusbythesea Jan 12, 2015 10:51 AM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 14, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    Titus. I am short via puts also and own no shares here, but you do not need to be a butt about it. Some people here have been hurt badly and what you are doing needs to be toned down a bit. I have been hurt badly on some of my investments at times and what you are doing is really unnecessary. We can't always gloat on the other side of a trade.

  • Reply to


    by billknight3402 Jan 15, 2015 10:12 AM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 15, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    I expect SDRL to give an accurate account of where they are and what the outlook is for their business because the lawyers will go over every word they are going to say because of the pending litigation. You may be right about Q4, we'll see, but I don't see how they can give a rosy forecast for the future and their debt load.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Everyone here is an expert (at losing money)

    by billknight3402 Jan 13, 2015 2:16 PM
    billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 13, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    If you want to speculate you should do it with options in an industry that is stable. like medical or bio-tech. Oil has been a very bad industry for a long time. You could buy some SDRL calls out a year pretty cheap right now and sell your long position in case prices stay this low for a long time. SDRL is so highly leveraged they are in for some very tough times. Take these little bounces to get out of this.

  • billknight3402 billknight3402 Jan 13, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    FCX is also in the oil business. Did you know that? Check out their diversification plan of a few years ago when oil was booming. That is also where a huge part of their debt comes from.

  • billknight3402 billknight3402 Dec 4, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    On 11/11 when you wrote this CHKR closed at $10.70 now at $6.21 maybe Pennystocksweekly meant half, not double. Almost there and still looking for an entry point, but they keep disappointing and dividend keeps going down. Hedged at $97 and what will the dividend be when the hedges expire and they start selling at $60 something?

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