They can't afford Fort Hills. They need to fix the balance sheet now before things are really bad in 6-12 months. It's better to sacrifice future profit potential than go bankrupt.
You seem to be confusing the stock with the company. The company will no doubt live on. You as stockholder might not. Your stock can be taken away with a few strokes of the pen. That's why the stock is dropping.
The only positive thing we have as shareholders is the knowledge that Carl Icahn is watching. If he weren't there, the management would not realize how close they are to BK. Carl will force them to look at all options to improve the balance sheet, and I am somewhat comfortable the common equity will not be erased without a full strategic review. That said, I wouldn't put any money in FCX that can't be completely lost. Based a quick review of the balance sheet and cash flow, it's not readily apparent how they avoid Chptr 11 if prices do not rise in 2016. They have enough oxygen to get through 2016, but after that it's a big question mark.
You present as though he has a choice. The company has to restructure and sacrifice shareholders. Anybody putting their money in a highly indebted oil company at the start of an industry consolidation is foolish. You'd have much better odds in roulette.
This company has about $6.5B in debt to refinance over the next three years. Forget about refinancing it in this environment. If SDRL survives, it will be a fraction of its current form, after many investment interests are sold at rock bottom prices and other assets are simply left to creditors. The rigs that come off contract during the next couple years will be worthless, meaning the debt associated with these rigs can't be serviced with the lower contract rates. They'll be scapped or taken over by creditors.
This company was mismanaged and went too far with the debt leverage. The people who set this up have been paid. Now it's time for the bagholders to do their part.
This will be lower then $1 per share within six months, I predict.
The three owners should agree to delay the project until the oil price and supply glut improves. Why develop new projects when strong companies will be able to buy cheap assets out of bankruptcy soon. It's much cheaper to buy out of BK then invest from scratch like they are doing now. If TCK is not careful, it's assets will be up for auction.
My opinion is they should sell their $1.5B investment in progress for $500M, pay down some debt, and wait for their other businesses to improve. They'll need at least a billion excess cash to cover operating losses through this down cycle.
Really....they paid a dividend last quarter? Makes absolutely no sense. They'll be diluting shareholders with all kinds of capital moves next quarter.