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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Message Board

billy_berew 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 6, 2014 11:00 AM Member since: Apr 9, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Another horrible quarter

    by billy_berew Aug 1, 2014 7:58 PM
    billy_berew billy_berew Aug 6, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Current leadership has presided over a 70% stock price decline over many years.

  • If you are going to short, this looks like a good time. Chances of a big drop have clearly heightened based on the technicals. if she heads back over the 200 day convincingly, time to cover.

  • billy_berew by billy_berew Aug 1, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    $10 cash drain in one quarter, yet no recognition by mgmt/BOD that overhead is out of whack? Why do they need all that corporate overhead in Minnesota when Nexsan is based in California? What real value is all that overhead providing? Are CD and tape businesses really cash flow positive after allocation of corporate overhead? If not, why not sell CD, tape, and TDK instead of suffering the cash drain? If the company truly wants to develop some focus, they need to shed product lines and related overhead, as well as consolidate their many geographies.

    Unfortunately, I think we'll see a $ stock price before these decisions are made. And the cash will drain down to nothing.

  • Yahoo says about 20, but I've seem many comments that it is 85. Both are stated as trailing twelve months. What is the real story? If it's really 85, why is Yahoo so wrong?

  • billy_berew billy_berew Jul 12, 2014 11:54 PM Flag

    Only Japanese own Japanese bonds. They'll follow their leaders off a bridge to maintain nationalist pride. The US is completely the opposite. The citizenry couldn't care less about the country. They are outsourcing all the jobs, giving out tax loopholes to the people who least deserve them. The politicians are completely self-serving, and people would short bonds rather than own them if it turns a profit. Bottom line is nobody cares if the US goes down for the count. Even the Harley riders with the flags on their bikes are cheating as much as they can on their taxes. US treasuries are not safe. I'd own the yellow metal before I bought the green paper. At least the yellow metal won't burn in a fire.

  • billy_berew billy_berew Jul 12, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    Japan is ready to blow. Why anybody would reference Japan as an example is beyond me. Japan has been walking onto thinner ice with each passing year. You think the U.S. can join Japan on that same spot of thin ice and be safe?

  • The machines are playing with the shorts by manipulating trading activity for 300 or more stocks. They are no different than CYNK, just a little more discrete. The SEC turns a bling eye.

  • billy_berew by billy_berew Jul 9, 2014 2:11 AM Flag

    The impact of interest rates reductions has worn off. Anybody wanting to take out new debt or refinance has done so. Now what? Some form of asset confiscation? Anything that reduces wealth concentration would seem to do the trick.

  • billy_berew by billy_berew Jul 4, 2014 1:34 AM Flag

    Everybody is thinking about triggers these days. Could the following be triggers?

    People will begin to see the obvious: the Fed has zero power to stimulate the economy at this point in time. All benefits of prior interest rate reductions are in the past. Further rate reductions are not possible because we're at a zero rate. Once people understand the Fed is powerless, they realize the concept of a "Bernanke put" is pure fantasy. They will run to the door like lemmings. The smart moves first, then all the articles come out as stock prices drop, then the dumb money sees how dumb they were to believe the Bernanke put.

    Two negative quarters of negative GDP growth defines a "recession". Given negative GDP growth of 2.9% last quarter, could it be negative for second quarter as well? Can you imagine all the "recession" talk from the pimply faced pundits and bloggers? What would this do to market confidence? People will begin to think corporate profits may be in for a long slide.

    These are the leading candidates in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    I think we've peaked

    by billy_berew Jun 28, 2014 12:28 AM
    billy_berew billy_berew Jun 28, 2014 1:28 AM Flag

    Now that stocks, bonds, and real estate are at sky high levels and yields are ridiculously low relative to risk, there is only one convincing strategy to make money. Short everything. The smart money knows to wait for the momentum to head down. When it does, look out below - the herd will trample anyone in its way QE can do nothing to stimulate the economy, and the Fed is now powerless to do anything but watch. High interest rates, defaults, and recession is the medicine. As the invisible hand does its magic, stupid speculators are wiped out, and smart money buys assets for pennies on the dollar, and overall asset prices reduce, we'll see capital investments and employment once again, but only after the bubble has deflated. Keep lots of dry powder. A big correction is near - most likely for stocks, bonds, real estate, and Fed policy.

  • billy_berew by billy_berew Jun 28, 2014 12:28 AM Flag

    The low interest rates are doing nothing good at this point. The big rate reductions have already occurred, and stimulus from further rate reductions will be minimal at best. Anybody who is in a position to refinance their mortgage has already done so. Anybody business or person witlh need or desire to take out a low-interest loan has done so. Real estate has increased back to insane levels, so first-time homebuyers can't buy, even at today's low interest rates. The economic activity from past rate reductions is already reflected in current and past GDP growth numbers, which have been meager. So, only bad things are happening now. Young people without job potential are taking on student debt to stay in school. People with no sense are taking out mortgages on overpriced homes, with 3% down and debt service equal to 4-6x their income. Weak businesses are getting loans that will likely go bad. Strong businesses are taking out loans simply to buyback stock at overpriced levels to reward greedy executives and artificially increase EPS and stock prices to temporarily appease shareholders. And, most importantly, the low rates allow bankrupt governments to temporarily continue wasteful government programs and tax loopholes.

    Any good business idea has been funded at this point. There has been lots of liquidity and available funding for worthy investments for many years now. Now that those worthy investments have been funded, we currently see funding for only bad investments. Ridiculous investments are being made, similar to the 2000 bubble. Didn't a money-losing start-up camera company with no novel technology just get $3B for its stock yesterday?

  • Reply to

    The Fed’s QE was based on a false premise

    by merenkov Jun 26, 2014 11:10 AM
    billy_berew billy_berew Jun 27, 2014 12:54 AM Flag

    In other words, technicals matter more than fundamentals. If there is one thing to be learned over the past 30 years, that is it. Some people say this market works against "intelligence", but that's an oxymoron since intelligent people recognize the market is irrational. It reflects herding behavior, and it looks back more than it looks forward. Once the S&P 500 crosses the 365 day average, short it to oblivion. This time, there's a good change it will not bounce back because the well is dry. The Fed is now powerless.

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