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Intel Corporation Message Board

billy_ray_valentine 189 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 19 minutes ago Member since: Apr 22, 2008
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  • billy_ray_valentine by billy_ray_valentine 2 hours 19 minutes ago Flag

    Rite Aid Enters Oversold Territory (RAD)


    Legendary investor Warren Buffett advises to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. One way we can try to measure the level of fear in a given stock is through a technical analysis indicator called the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which measures momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30.

    In trading on Thursday, shares of Rite Aid Corp. (NYSE: RAD) entered into oversold territory, hitting an RSI reading of 29.8, after changing hands as low #$%$30 per share. By comparison, the current RSI reading of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is 71.0. A bullish investor could look at RAD’s 29.8 RSI reading today as a sign that the recent heavy selling is in the process of exhausting itself, and begin to look for entry point opportunities on the buy side. The chart below shows the one year performance of RAD shares:

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating on Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD) but reduced its price target to $6.50 (from $9.00). Analyst George Hill called Q2 results strong, but guidance was very disappointing.

    "RAD has now taken down its EBITDA target for the year by ~$125mm. We estimate the components include reimbursement pressure at $40-60mm, a delay of the McKesson benefit of $30-40mm, the delay of the generic Nexium launch of $15-20mm, with other factors making up the balance. The combination of payer contract renewals, Medicare Part D plan resets on January 1, 2015, member and drug migration within drug plans, and the impact of MAC contracts are expected to continue to pressure margins. Nexium is now expected to launch in F2016, but other generic drug launches have proven less profitable than planned," said Hill.

    "We are revising our F2015 estimates to reflect the negative reimbursement environment. Our revised F2015 EBITDA estimate is $1.24B and our revised EPS estimate is $0.28. We now expect more limited F2016 EBITDA and EPS growth, with a revised EBITDA forecast of $1.29B (+5%) and EPS forecast of $0.41. Longer term, our fear is that the procurement strategies by the various retail pharmacies will be more than offset by constant reimbursement pressure and changes to member mix, limiting the potential for margin growth. RAD has now taken its EBITDA down about 10% for the year from its initial guidance," he added.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine 8 hours ago Flag

    this is fiscal year 2015 for RAD. You must mean the second half.

  • Reply to

    Walmart neighborhood store will hurt

    by t_baroi 10 hours ago
    billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine 10 hours ago Flag

    Your post is BS. They are expanding to benefit convenience to customers. That makes it fit into their endeavor to buy RAD stores or the entire company. Not saying they will, but Walmarts purpose isn't to DESTROY lol

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    short this to 3.90

    by duckyah000 11 hours ago
    billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine 10 hours ago Flag

    The CEO legally cannot be short.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine 10 hours ago Flag

    Today Cramer said that management should have telegraphed that they saw margin compression ahead. He is correct about that. They said nothing. No warning. However, I see a near doubling of expectations in an environment that was described much the same way. I don't think the future is near as dark as they imply.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 17, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    It fits right into Walmart's small store expansion. Perfect fit into their new business model.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 17, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    Damn yo sound like there is already trouser chili running down your legs lol

    Sentiment: Buy

  • billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 17, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Walmart is adding stores just the size of Rite Aids. Rite Aid comes with the pharmacy built in. Also at what time would a company say they were interested and watch the price rise too fast.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Who could benefit from owning RAD.....

    by boar292hog Sep 17, 2014 3:26 PM
    billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 17, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    WMT because it fits exactly into their new business model of small groceries in convenient areas with the plus of having their Pharmacy outlets expanded as well.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Sep. 17, 2014 2:28 PM ET | About: Rite Aid Corporation (RAD)

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Summary
    •The whisper number is $0.06, in-line with the analysts' estimate.
    •Rite Aid has a 48% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 22 of the 46 earnings reports for which we have data).
    •The overall average price move is 'as expected' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.

    Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, September 18th. The whisper number is $0.06, in-line with the analysts' estimate and showing neutral confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.05 to a high of $0.08. Rite Aid has a 48% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 22 of the 46 earnings reports for which we have data).

    Earnings history:

    - Beat whisper: 22 qtrs

    - Met whisper: 1 qtrs

    - Missed whisper: 23 qtrs

    Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

    The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day time frame:

    (click to enlarge)

    The strongest price movement of +7.7% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -7.7% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is 'as expected' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.

    The table below indicates the most recent earni

  • Reply to

    200 Day Simple Moving Average still moving up

    by distantdrummer Sep 17, 2014 11:53 AM
    billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 17, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    It really doesn't matter if it breaks 6.60 or not today as all focus will be on earnings tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 17, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    actually I set a window on BING with RAD Rite Aid and put it on news and Most Recent. It updates by itself.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Rite Aid's (NYSE: RAD ) stock price has dropped more than 20% since the company lowered its earnings guidance in early June. This has made the pharmacy chain one of Wall Street's most volatile stocks this year.

    With the company on tap to update investors on its fiscal second-quarter results Thursday, here are three points to keep in mind before rushing to buy or sell Rite Aid's shares.

    1. Generic bugaboo
    Rite Aid had high hopes when it inked a deal that turned over its generic drug purchasing and distribution to McKesson. However, delays in getting the deal up to speed weighed heavily on the company's fiscal first quarter, forcing Rite Aid to cut its full-year earnings guidance to $0.30-$0.40 per share.

    Clearly, off-loading costly inventory and distribution could prove friendly to Rite Aid's bottom line, but management's stumble in predicting when those benefits could be realized has kept investors cautious. Investors would be wise to look for any updated guidance from management on how the program is progressing.

    2. Clinics, clinics, clinics
    Rite Aid's decision earlier this year to buy RediClinic could give it plenty of opportunity to play catch up to CVS Health and Walgreen in providing convenient, low-cost healthcare services to customers in their stores. Both of its rivals have a massive head start, so Rite Aid won't catch up to them anytime soon. But if the company is going to turn the corner from boosting profit by cost-cutting to boosting profit from growth, it will need to ramp up programs like RediClinic.

    Last quarter, Rite Aid announced plans to open 18 RediClinic locations over the next 18 months, at a cost of roughly $200,000 per location. While all eyes will be focused on Rite Aid's full-year profit guidance in the upcoming quarterly report, investors should also watch whether the RediClinic plans have changed. After all, it wouldn't be encouraging to see Rite Aid reduce the number of planned RediClinic launches in order to m

  • billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 17, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    "I base this on rads 30 year 8.00 average share price for the last 30 years."

    That is absolutely meaningless.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Rite Aid Corporation's Strong Showing

    by billy_ray_valentine Sep 16, 2014 10:00 AM
    billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 16, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    There was no problem with a simple copy and paste. At times there is a problem when they contain links. I take links out because YaHoo more times than not will not accept the post with links.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    If Rad were going to go up

    by buythisdog Sep 16, 2014 10:32 AM
    billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 16, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    You are obviously wrong. Should be doing this now...that now. Earnings, The Fed and Options Market Maker are affecting the stock. You should wait til after earnings rather than appearing as Trouser Chili is running down your leg.

  • Reply to

    Rite Aid Corporation's Strong Showing

    by billy_ray_valentine Sep 16, 2014 10:00 AM
    billy_ray_valentine billy_ray_valentine Sep 16, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    That was a Seeking Alpha article. I just posted it as is.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • billy_ray_valentine by billy_ray_valentine Sep 16, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Rite Aid Corporation's Strong Showing

    Sep. 15, 2014 1:02 PM ET | 5 comments | About: Rite Aid Corporation (RAD), Includes: MCK

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

    Summary
    •Rite Aid Corporation reported strong results for the month of August and Q2 2014.
    •Rite Aid has launched several programs that have helped revenues swell over the past few quarters. The company has launched the Wellness+ program to strengthen its relationship with its customers.
    •In February, Rite Aid announced a distribution agreement with McKesson. Based on this collaboration, the company anticipated to make cost savings, which are taking longer than expected to materialize.
    •Some investors are wary of the collaboration with McKesson because the company doesn’t seem to be benefiting from the cost savings that were anticipated from this collaboration.
    •Even if the cost savings are not in sight during this quarter or the next one, the agreement will ultimately bear fruit for the company in the long run.

    Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD) reported strong results for the month of August and Q2 2014. The company's comparable store sales reported an increase of 3.9% till 30 August 2014. This was due to an improvement in comparable sales of the front-end and pharmacy, with these stores showing a higher prescription count. Comparable pharmacy sales were also up by 5.2% for the month of August.

    Total drugstore sales for August have increased by 3.7% relative to the sales last year. Sales for the month of August stood at $2.515 billion, while they amounted to $4.425 billion last year. 69.3% of total drugstore sales were contributed by prescription sales whereas the third party prescription sales accounted for almost 97.5% of pharmacy sales.

    Second Quarter Results

    The second quarter, which ended on 30th August 2014, reported a rise in comparable sales of 4.1%. This rise was co

    Sentiment: Buy

  • You can bet the pennystock P&D trolls ill be actively predicting their crazy targets. Thursday is the important day. Not fluctuations in daily price that are generally based on -0- analysis and maximum nonsense.

    Sentiment: Buy

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