I'd read the latest 10-Q which you can find if you google: 2014 Curis inc. 10-Q and click on the first result from Marketwatch. The stock seems to have put in a floor around $1.65. I'm not sure why the stock is so low right now but the problems all seemed to have started last November when the FDA placed a partial hold on a trial of its drug CUDC-427 for solid tumors after a patient died from liver failure. It had been trading over $4 and dropped to around $2.75 soon after the hold was announced. After recovering somewhat to around $3.40 it dropped again to around $2.50 in December after reporting after reporting preliminary data from its ongoing phase 1 trial for CUDC-907. The FDA lifts the clinical hold on CUDC-427 in March when the stock was around $3 a share. But instead of going higher the stock has drifted steadily lower since then to our current price of $1.65. After seeing a 30% growth in sales of Erivedge in Q4 of 2013, I think investors were disappointed by a slight 7% decrease in sales for Q1 of 2014. But Erivedge sales were up 40% in Q2 and Curis beat earnings estimates and reported a loss of only 2 cents a share vs. an estimated loss of 6 cents a share. If you check the chart this stock is near its 3 1/2 year low of $1.60 so I don't see much more downside risk. But nothing seems to be able to move the stock higher right now even a good Q4 report. Curis will be presenting at two investment conferences next month and another two in October and November so maybe that will help to move the stock price higher.
• Robert W. Baird & Co. 2014 Health Care Conference, September 3-4, 2014 in New York City
• Rodman and Renshaw 16th Annual Global Investment Conference, September 8-10, 2014 in New York City
• BIO Investor Forum, October 7-8, 2014 in San Francisco
• Stifel 2014 Healthcare Conference on November 18-19, 2014 in New York City
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks, that's encouraging news. If Erivedge can keep growing at a 40% clip next quarter Curis should be able to start keeping some of the royalties over 2 million. The first 2 million it has to use to pay off it's 30 million loan. I believe Curis expects to have the loan paid off by the end of 2016 so then they will be in great shape financially as the royalties could be quite significant by then. With plenty of cash there is no need to do a secondary offering before then. I initially though taking out a 30 million dollar loan at 12.5% interest may not have been to wise but if it prevents a dilution of the stock by eliminating a secondary offering then maybe management knew what they were doing
Can you expand on what you mean by CRIS gets 50%+ plus erivedge sales. Where did you see this? I've only seen that CRIS gets 5% of erivedge sales.
You are probably right; I'd take 25% growth quarter over quarter. I'd like to see the royalties get to $3 million per quarter as soon as possible so they can start paying down that $30 million loan by $3 million every quarter starting in 2015 and save all of that interest that they are paying. I calculated that if they can pay back $3 million per quarter starting in 2015 they should be able to pay back the loan in full by the end of 2017.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree I just bought as much more today as I could and I will wait as this stock should be trading much higher. With a market cap of only $141 million and an approved product its market cap is much lower than other biotechs that have no approved products and are losing tons of money. For example Tekmira has a market cap of over $400 million and no approved products; it just reported a loss of $6 million today for the quarter.The Nasdaq is up 74 points in the last two days yet Curis drops 5 cents and is now within 5 cents of it's 12 month low after reporting better than expected earnings and Erivedge sales up 40% from the previous quarter. It's very frustrating right now but long term holders will be rewarded.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You make some good points. I'm holding through the PDUFA date; I'm hoping the third time will be a charm. I'm a little gun shy having been burned recently by holding ACRX through the PDUFA date. ALIM seems to have all of their ducks lined up this time so common sense would expect an approval but with the FDA it's never a sure thing.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If you use Bing and do a search on: ACRX halted in after hours trading you will see a search result from NASDAQtrader for Trade Halts Current. If you click on that link it will give you a chart of stocks currently halted. I've been monitoring this site as it shows the current status of the ACRX as halted at 17:58 with a T1 code. As soon as the news is released it will change to T2. The information seems to be updated every few minutes.
Deja VU, I just read your post and I had 6,000 shares on Thursday also and I bought 10,000more on Friday @ $1.67. I had been keeping 6,000 and buying 2,000 more when it dips below $1.70 and then selling 2000 back when it gets back above $1.80. After seeing the stock do this twice recently I decided to take a chance and buy 10,000 this time as there seems to be a lot of support around $1.65. Hope we did the right thing.
The only information I've been able to find on Erivedge Royalties to Curis says that Curis will receive a tiered, escalating sales royalty starting at mid single digit. It seems to currently be at 5%; does anyone know how high the royalty percentage can go and what is needed to trigger a percentage increase above the current 5% rate.
If you look at the headlines for CRIS here at Yahoo Finance you will see one dated August 1, 2014 titled "Is a Surprise Coming for Curis". If you click on it says that Zacks has a Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Curis.
Correction: the interest rate on the $30 million loan is 12.25%. Starting in 2015 $3 million of the royalties received for Erivedge will be applied to payback the loan. The current balance as of June 30, 214 is $30,315,000. If Curis can start paying pack $3 million per quarter starting in 2015 then I calculate they should be able to pay back the loan in full by the end of 2017.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm a little confused as I thought the Pacific Bora was a 6th generation drillship not a 7th generation. Isn't a $585,680 day rate pretty high for a 6th generation drillship? Also I'm trying to decide if I should buy PACD now or wait until after next quarter earnings are released.
Wow, 3 thumbs up. Thanks for asking the question about the Feldman connection. I've owned this stock for 1 year and I wasn't aware of the Feldman connection. I agree it would have been nice if the article would have mentioned the connection to CUR as most people will be unaware of the connection. Thanks again.
I'm new to this board as I just bought some shares of ORIG recently. I had a hard time deciding between PACD and ORIG but I decided on ORIG after seeing that the market caps for both companies are very close and ORIG has more ships, better earnings, and more secured long term contracts. I'm really surprised this board is so quiet after ORIG crushed the earning estimate today; I thought there would be more excitement. I think the street was expecting around 40 cents and they came in at 53 cents.
ORIG doesn't seem to trade after hours as I never see any quotes for it here at Yahoo. Your DRYS is up 19 cents after hours so tomorrow ORIG should do well also.
Is it possible that ACRX will wait until after 5:00PM to release the results to eliminate any after hours trading in the stock? My broker Scottrade ends after hour trading at 5:00PM.
Although it is two months old if you google: Cash flow issues impact deepwater rig day rates and click on the first result it says:
Although recent contracts indicate rates of $500,000-550,000/d, Seadrill believes some of its main competitors will accept levels for sixth-generation vessels in the $425,000-475,000/d range
I couldn't agree with you more; it's too late to sell now; might as well wait and see what happens; I'd only get about $800 if I sold out now. I was glad to see the volume was back to normal today; those 10 million share trading days were getting a little scary. When you see that many shares traded for so many days in a row it makes you think bankruptcy is imminent. Although it's a slim chance I think the only chance of survival now is if Batelle decides to step in and acquire ADMD. I don't see how ADMD can issue new shares with the stock price so low now and survive on their own. So I'll keep my shares and hope Batelle comes to the rescue.