Looks like they are serious about cutting debt and interest expense. I believe we will be at the high end of debt payoff this year. I estimate the plans here add $4 valuation alone. I estimate this based on paying down over $120M in debt starting in the 4Q13 to end of the year. Hope this moves us some tomorrow.
Only news that can take this much higher is FDA news or partner/buyer. Remember we are over $500M in valuation without a single dime of revenues. Be thankful it's at $2.68.
Once 1500 franchises are open you then expect some earnings? Maybe you meant 150? Here's what I see with 150 stores with average sales of $750K each store;
I estimate revenues from 150 stores open to add $12M a year revenues. If they don't net out $8M here from that, then why invest here. At some point this becomes a cash cow with that many stores. This figure includes nothing of the fees required to franchise. 150 x $20K = $3M. So I'm being very conservative.
At 150 stores open, the value here should be about $24 a share. Remember we sell them the product, that's a additional $250K per store in revenues and 17% margin or $42.5K in revenues per store.
It sounded like he's piecing this together just like a few of us are. It's a puzzle still. I believe the common theme here is a bridging study will be coming. Weather that's post/pre approval is still up in the air. I believe safety is the one saving grace that could work in our favor on that decision. However the FDA could say, why not wait another 9-12 months and look at more data. Nothing easy ever.
Self proclaimed MVP. We are all that good after the facts. If he wants to show us the trades, then he'll get the admiration he craves. Until then, he's a loser who stated he was selling at $8.50 range here. That we know for sure.
If it was a given, then this would already be part of PFE. You cannot jump to conclusions as fast as you do. It doesn't work that way. I see an effort to explain the science. That I can accept as a reality. However, if you based your conclusions on every biotech that had a small outcome, you would go broke waiting. This is my point. They could be 6 weeks from good news or maybe 2 years.
We as investors don't know how much of any new evidence the FDA will conclude here. I still cannot rule out a bridging trial. That would be a set back, with the share price. This is one single piece that helps explain something's.
To get what you expect, someone would need to perform 100's of additional trials. That additions to the label are years away if they are lucky enough to presented this data. It would be 3-4 years before you can say bystander benefits. I get the feeling some longs believe we can leap theses trials and somehow the FDA is going to say, yeah we see it.
Years ago Viagra was in trials for hypertension originally. However patients were experience you know what. Guess what they had to perform ph1,2,3. There are small shortcuts, not the big ones that are expressed here.
Around May 8. The revenues last quarter were 9.781M. Hopefully we track near the $10.5M. I think we need a near breakeven event. Since they only rolled out one company store this quarter should help with costs. Eliminated some dead weight could save some money. I believe some real growth with P5 will come from outside the USA. I base this on how much emphasis the latest PR's place with certain phrases about international pizza company. "Changing the world one slice at a time" or something close to this.
In his article he pointed out the small enrollment. This data this morning is from that small study. It was very positive data. This is one more necessary step to explain MOA. However, we need someone else besides PVCT and Moffitt to express the understanding here. Validation is what propels. Was this strong enough evidence to get PFE or others to line up? I always like when they can show in the clinic what they saw pre-clinic. That's what wins the race.
What I believe happen today, is the answer to a big pharma question. They designed this small trial to answer some questions. This wasn't the home run, it was the key needed to move a runner into scoring position. Good for them. AF should write a retraction on some of what he wrote. I'm sure he sees his conclusion having no merit now.
Right now, I'm trying to figure out where the data came from. Methodical investigation. I have stated for weeks that AACR and ASCO need to deliver. This is the first press release in a while that sounds like it has no holes to examine deeper. That's the stuff I can appreciate. Now will big pharma reach out?
As for obsessing about things. I just don't accept blindly how this drug will fit in.
I see only a up day today. AACR was a win/win. Making my job of pumping the brakes more difficult. This data sounds like it came from the trial that was not recruiting very fast. They talk about 8 patients in a ph1. If this is the trial that they only recruited 9 patients, that AF spoke about, then this great news.
Things just not moving as fast as we like. I also bought pre MSLP. So don't feel alone. We really don't know how big an opportunity we have here. However, I cannot imagine that they went to this much work to set this up, without a reason. They have preclinical data hopefully to share soon. The buzz at EASL is the exact stuff that our drug is going after.
We didn't like Spanspur. If you cannot see that, then you are not too bright. He attacks good stocks and promotes bad ones. We were here to warn you ahead of time. IT'S THAT SIMPLE. You just got caught holding something he was pumping and we pointed out the downside.
Next time read the DD by dbtunr with eyes wide open. Instead of following a Seeking Alpha article blindly. It's amazing, the guy pumping and lying get's off scott free and the group who warned you ahead of time, is the considered having an agenda. I blame our public school system.
This makes sense and maybe PVCT should have been exploring other plants with similar benefits to RB. The Australian maybe took our science and decided there's other opportunities out there. This is still down the road and probably no threat for years. Maybe even someday a combination will be develop with RB and this drug. Here's what I will see as Ironic, most longs here will agree with me that this is years away as competition, but will belief that RB is going to cure lung and breast cancer tomorrow, even when there's no evidence in any trial of this happening.
What if these two drugs were going at it today and this tobacco plant flower had promised ph3 trial and failed to seek SPA and had dug up some 29 patients showing symptom relief, would you be giving it a nod over our drug. I bet you would be questioning theirs like I question ours.
There's a new flower that is getting buzz about it cancer benefits from the Tobacco flower. It seems that it may also do the same thing that RB does. I see this as maybe more evidence that maybe PVCT was ahead of the curb. This sounds very similar to RB story. Here is the article:
THE tobacco plant could be a powerful weapon in the fight against cancer, say Australian scientists.
They have found a molecule in the flower of the plant that targets cancer cells and rips them open, according to an article in the journal eLife.
"There is some irony," lead researcher Dr Mark Hulett says. "But this is a welcome discovery, whatever the origin."
A promising feature of the molecule is that it targets cancer cells and does little damage to healthy cells.
"One of the biggest issues with current cancer therapies is that the treatment is indiscriminate," say Dr Hulett of the La Trobe Institute of Molecular Science in Victoria.
He is confident the research will result in new drugs to fight cancer and possibly in a new type of antibiotic to fight infections.
The molecule is found in the colourful flower of ornamental tobacco plants, which are in the same family as the commercial variety.
"It's an unexpected way to fight disease," says Dr Marc Kvansakul, whose team was tasked with explaining how the process works.
"We have found gold in an unexpected place. The actual tobacco plant is not bad. Just what we do with it is bad.
"We are very excited about this research. It has taken several years and it has been a very exciting ride."
The research adds to knowledge about molecules in all plants and animals that form the first line of defence against disease.
"Until now nobody has known
Let me understand this. You post a message stating you know nothing about PVCT but then go on to make some points about future valuations. This is the kind of stuff that looks so phony. Amateur pumpers. You don't discuss the time value of money waiting for a ph3 to start and complete. You don't mention that PVCT has missed a two year window on getting a ph3 started. You don't discuss the over reaction that the street would give this on the downside on BTD miss and delay getting to market. I hope you hold during this news, because anyone with half a brain will be selling on your theory here.
Go read the early years on ZEVE. He constantly posted how he lost $15-$20K on investment on many message boards. He went long KBIO and AVTH at the wrong time. Anyone can go board to board stating dead money. This is dead money, unless you are accumulating for the PH1 outcome.
I suggest you come back when they announce something and pay a premium. If you are here for immediate gratification, it just doesn't work that way. All you can do is examine what they just recently told us and understand they are seeing how their drug works.
At some point the company will unveil preclinical data. Next they will announce PH1 and hopefully partner. Stocks like this are not for everyone. You better understand this going in. This is a long road and milestones are spread out.