Radware Ltd. (RDWR) Message Board

I am no expert, but there aren't many companies that focus on denial of service solutions. Checkpoint is one of the largest security companies out there and they didn't have a solution, but instead signed an OEM agreement with Radware in June. I can not understand why this stock is not going up. Checkpoint has their quarterly call on Wed. and it should be interesting. Radware has theirs on Oct. 26. Needham spent two days with Radware recently and was convinced that their business plan is solid. My only concern is if even Radware technolgy is having a problem stopping the attacks.

If their solution is one of the best (which it appears it is) then this should be selling like hot cakes. Particularly now they have Checkpoint's larger sales force and VAR channel pushing the product. Checkpoint has to be heavy in the financial markets. These attacks will move to other Fortune 500 companies like the airlines, amazon, etc., any company that is doing a tremendous amount of commerce over the net directly to the consumer.

I am surprised that either IBM or Checkpoint hasn't bought Radware, but they may want too much. Rumor was Riverbed had a $47 bid in 2010 and this was when Radware was much smaller and not with this big market ahead of them. Radware is probably thinking they can double the stock price on their own in two years.

The other rumor is anothe major OEM agreement is in the works. I don't know how true this is as Checkpoint may contractually not allow it now. IBM could use the technolgy, so could CSCO, HP, EMC with RSA and others. Checkpoint may not care if IBM OEM's Radware technology because IBM would probably buy Checkpoint in a minute if CHKP was open to it.

It is going to be interesting. I strongly recommend the stock. Realize they have $250m in cash (Yahoo is incorrect). This is over $11 per share in cash. When you take out the cash their forward PE is around 12. For a tech security company to be at 12x is ridiculous.

Good Luck!

Sentiment: Strong Buy

That wasn't a purchase, that was 600,000 shares issued for Stock Options for employees unless I am missing something. They aren't buying shares, this is why the stock is dropping

I meant to say they have NOT dumped shares

There are couple other companies that I believe could utilize their technology (haven't completely peeled it back). IBM has Cognos so is probably happy there. Oracle, who knows. Informatica and Teradata have possibilities. It still comes down to the same issue. The executives are on a gravy train issuing new options and taking large compensation. Why would they want this gig to stop and they probably believe the company is worth $14 a share which no one would pay. This would put the market cap over $700m. They should hire Frank Quattrone and shop it. They probably could get between $10 and $11, but again I doubt they would take it.

The only way a deal would happen is if Pete and the team want to turn the page in their lifes and again it is too easy for them.

One interesting note is they have dumped shares in the past several months, but maybe it is because options aren't coming due.

Finally starting to get some good press. A couple upgrades the past two weeks and now on his show. Should move up on Monday. Still think it is a great M&A purchase for Cisco, IBM, HP, EMC, CHKP and numerous others. Could go for $60. Remember they have $250m in cash. The Cybersecurity focus is big with what is happening to BofA and Citi.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

No that was the Oppenheimer analysis that went public with the deal claiming it would be for Radware. He had the value of the deal and terms down to the tee, but he got the wrong company as they choose Riverbed. He was upset and could not understand how Roy and Radware would walk away from this business. It is odd, but maybe they are working with other companies such as IBM and see this as a bigger opportunity.

It is shocking to me that this has fallen 10 points in a few days with a quarter and forecast that is solid. Other tech companies have done the same and gained 10 to 20%, but this drops like a rock.

I would think they would buy back shares at this price as well and I hope there are some suitors.

Appears their strategy is to provide/embed their technologies or form partnerships with as many companies as possible. Today's Checkpoint announcement is positive and it will be interesting to see if an OEM agreement is signed with Juniper and/or IBM. The next quarter's earnings call should be very interesting. This has the potential to hit $50 very soon if these announcements are made.

Curious myself. Don't see anything, but this would be a cherry for IBM and Juniper to pick up.

Interesting and thanks for the link. I think it validates my point that I can't see SAP buying Click now. Maybe they did buy Syclo to keep it away from Oracle. I doubt Oracle wants Click as CLick uses SAP technology.

These s/w stocks drop like a rock (2-3x) when the market goes down.

Good luck.

Good insight. I spent more time researching Click's technology. They are heavily tied to SAP with Sybase and have a special SAP module. This seems like a perfect fit for SAP and possibly IBM as IBM is a partner of both Click and SAP.

Oracle doesn't seem to be a technology fit outside of the fact that they could throw an big wrench into SAP's plan.

This should get interesting this year.

Based upon recent transactions of Rightnow, Demandtec, Taleo and SuccessFactors, average is about 6x of sales. $20 is about right. These companies aren't going to a 100% premium or there will be no deal.