That seems wildly optimistic. With roughly a third as many HepC cases in Japan as the US, but a greater proportion of the genotype eligible for Harvoni, and an expectation of a slight discounting of the price of the drug relative to US, we may see roughly $2 billion in Harvoni sales in Japan in 2016. Between this ramp-up and continuance of increasing sales in Europe, there may be up to $3 billion more in international sales in 2016 than for this year.
China and India have never been big markets for branded pharmaceuticals.
Once Harvoni is approved in the very large markets of Japan and South Korea, worldwide sales and profits will be markedly higher.
I like how you risked over $500,000 to make $11,000. Well done.
Others have been in AGIO since share price was in the 20s.
The comparison with Dendreon is idiotic. DNDN had a successful phase 3 clinical trial with Provenge and won FDA marketing approval. The company failed to successfully commercialize it as a cellular immunotherapy for prostate cancer, and so went bankrupt.
EXEL, conversely, is developing protein kinase inhibitors as oncotherapies, and if the pivotal clinical trials are successful will, along with their large pharma partnerships, have no trouble marketing and selling their drugs.
(Yahoo truncated my post...) The same can be said of Pharmacyclics. However, once PCYC developed and launched Imbruvica, it was a short trip to a $17 billion valuation.