With COmet2 results Cabo can be marketed better. Once these are out of the way, we will also have results for renal carcinoma which has a high likelihood of success as well. Then of course the money is in competing with rest of the drugs in earlier treatment schedules...if they can show non-inferiority or even superiority..then exel will be the next gilead.....
Haven't written in a long while. After a long drought in news..we finally get the anticipated good news on Cobi. With Cabo approved and marketed for MTC (with sales still rising) and now Cobi guaranteed to be approved and taking a significant market share in not too distant future, things should stabilize and move up from here. On tha basis of these two drugs on the indications approved for, EXEL valuation has ways to go before its is fully reflected. SO I dont think there is any risk of lower PPS (except for day to day shenanigans by HFT, day traders, and MMS in general).
Now to Comet 1 and Comet2. I have no doubt that Comet2 will be successful in reducing pain/bone metastasis etc. However, its the comet1 result that will benefit from successful comet2 results as it will enhance its chances of differentiating itself from numerous drugs marketed for mCRPC. The reason I think Cabo will be successful is because we know it is an active compound and it works by inhibiting 2 pathways. It was unfortunate that exel chose the most difficult population to conduct these trials. WHile this makes sense in terms of getting it approved quickly (as these patients have gone through all available drugs), it is also true that for whatever reason they haven't responded to ANY med and will likely not benefit that much more with Cabo. SO the startegy makes sense approval wise and unmet mkt need etc, it may not have been the best strategy science-wise and having a clear positive result. They should at have had another trial or an arm where they go for first like or second line with one of the standard of care, at risk of course, to so non-inferiority (at a minimum). The choice of population for P3 is also the reason why the trial could not be stopped at the interim..because unlike the other drugs who were treating "healthier" and more "responsive", Cabo was trying to treat worst of the worst population! No surprise there. However, I still believe it will eek out with positive results.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
looks like you get a high by watching other people making money..long or short. What RU? You also seem to wish EXEL ill...what kind of low life does that on a continuous basis?
I hope this guy answers some investor questions now:
"Our success is closely linked to the confidence we instill in others through the ethical and honest management of our company and accurate public reporting. It is the policy of Arena to promote high standards of integrity by conducting our affairs in an honest and ethical manner, and our Board of Directors and senior management team are firmly committed to effective corporate governance.
Those principles apply to our relationships with our stockholders, employees, partners, contractors, vendors, community, and our competitors. Those principles also form the basis for the corporate governance documents that are available here for your review. We will review these documents periodically and amend them as necessary to help achieve their objectives."
President and Chief Executive Officer
good to see a few fellow longs from EXEL. If I remember correctly I may have seen you in CLDX, SGEN, MITI, and ARNA. Clearly, EXEL and SQNM have not performed well and its just going to take some time. AT this juncture, SQNM is the surest bet (no uncertainly in P3 trials). Its already marketed and is the dominant player in the space.
ARNA has been extremely tough.
EXEL will see the sun soon. Interim analysis threw some cold water but we will get past that too. If the same drug that has shown clear activity in difficult to treat MTC, I will have to seriously think about my biotech investing abilities if all of the ongoing phase 3s fail.
But certainly, sqnm's good days have finally arrived.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
not co-incidences! Its well planned and orderly! Don't pay attention to what they are saying on this board pay attention to what they are doing (their actions). Clearly now they see the writing on the wall and they will manipulate, they will bash, distort all sorts of things as long as they can so that they have covered significant portion of their holdings. They have had time to realize what coming up...additional country approvals, and results of Bel+Phen as well as smoking cessation etc. Those are undeniable and as soon as results are out and market starts digesting the significance of those results and what that implies in terms of belviq's sales potential and starts discounting with PPS increases..shorts will be left with few options. But smart ones and the big guys are getting out in a orderly fashion before it is too late.
We have endured so much, clearly we all did not realize how tough and the long the road was..but day by day with patience we will make money and Belviq is a real multi-potential drug.
EISAI's relaunch may include Bel+Phen results and perhaps the preliminary results from smoking trials.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Amazing how the bots have completely taken over. Hope real posters keep posting to be on top. Also, please tweet or email yahoo finance until they solve this infestation of the bots!! The desperation on whoever is runnin the bots for whatever reason is very obvious. Good things to come and soon!
That's why I say the hatred and manipulation is just baffling. It is even more amazing that the short interest has gone down by more than 30% at the same time pps has been falling!! How is that possible? They say the pps is driven by supply and demand. Thats a bunch of baloney as far as ARNA pps is concerned. What they have been doing is "create" supply and "suppress" demand! And they do it by means of blogs, unsolicited expert advise, and self-fulfilling sky high expectations that are surely not to be met. Then they use their own inflated expectations to bash and lower the pps. It has been a gold-mine..just cycling the pps between 6 and 7 and making profits either way. Case in point:
When there is a 4-day week and the scripts are lower by lets say 10%, they jump and say well if it was strong product and the demand is there , there should be no decrease and it should continue its increase in sales..therefore the message is SELL SELL and sell some more.
However, the following week, the scripts are up by more than 23% which recovers all the dip plus 10% more, they minimize that by sayin g well it was a short week and of course the sales are expected to increase. And hence the recommendation is..and yes you guessed ot.. sell sell sell.
Then you always have the 200M, 150M that was never an official guidance, but allows one to put in the argument whenever one wants to downplay the rise in pps or potential or how Belviq sales hasn;t quite delivered.
Its totally manipulated and has been for the ;last 2 years. I think the only way we can get back to their game is every time there is a pop, just write covered calls on 50% of your shares expiring in month. That way you protect some gains, and at the same time have enough to capture if there is a sudden positive news that takes the pps really high. At least that's what I will do next time it pops to 7 again.
Well shorting SQNM moving forward is a lost cause. If you consider the fact that it will likely turn profitable by Q3, may have injunctions against ariosa, and has NIPT market dominance, it is nothing but stupidity to short SQNM. All the bad news is out now, finally it is turning the corner and will be solidly in positive territory by year end....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Pretty amazing stuff. Since that thesis by anonymous short was published in SA the MB is alos littered with the cockroaches. Something must be up and they seem very desperate..not bending truths but outright lying! No need to respond or engage them. If all who care could just "report abuse" and then "ignore" as much as you can then the board will look a lot cleaner!
Like I said....based on the trading pattern of today and yesterday.. they manufactured the #s to the downside as planned by the HFs to profit. That's the only reason they can trade wk/wk based on the IMS/Symph #s they themselves create. Why not monthly or quarterly to track the progress? The reason is they can get away with manipulation wk/wk because you downplay this week and exaggerate next week and that way you make money both weeks! But it will be hard to control that month/month or Q/Q and they know this. Also the reason that both symp and IMS are owned by hedgescums for profiting not to do any kind of service to the general public! All you have to watch is what happens Monday to Thursday next week to know what they have decided to do with next weeks numbers..if it starts jumping from Monday or it jumps on Thursday..you know why?
This is such a rigged market and arena shares are f&*%ed every day..
Its generally true that the IMS releases numbers early if they are bad and late or after the market if its good. Ditto for the blogger who writes on scripts about belviq. Unless you are naive or plain stupid you would see this is happening week afetr week!
if you believe the trading pattern yest & today script numbers will be bad..that's what IMS and Symp will report (falsely of course). The rigging and cheting games continue in arena land..what else is new??
Nothing to be surprised. Everyone is playing his/her game. The premier subscribers will get the article furst..they will buy or sell according to the salnt of the article, and then everyone else will see it and follow suit. So who ever gets the news first makes more money than the late comers. Works every-time like clockworks. I suspect the article is going to highlight the 10K benchmark and make headline out of it for maximal effect. That headline will be picked up by more "news" crooks..with their own self0fulfilling prophesies...
They will keep playing the same game again. Raise the estimate just before the earnings so that it will be a miss and then point out that see they missed by 2 cents!! to create scary headlines. They will do that until it seems ridiculous but then they will look for another prey without being called out.
Its always like this, It rises very slowly..but then drops like a rock on manufactured bad news. Or manufactured miss by setting up the expectations high. Old wall street game as usual. Overreaction is the name of this game.
Thanks as always! I really hope that this Monday, Arena discloses that both IMS and Symphony are underestimating actual scripts. Since we are almost a year since launch, they must have better sense of their inventory movement and projected sales. If we do hear positive news on Monday, and followed by yet another 5-10% increase in scripts on Friday, this stock may never be 7 again!
Not exactly sure why AF and JC still keep bashing this stock and company when all the signs and trends suggest its going to be big. You will never see these clowns admit their error and underestimation of Belviq. You also never hear them talk about the rest of the pipeline and Belviq in combination with Phen or Metformin. As they say...truth will prevail and will set us all free...
Sentiment: Strong Buy