that's a fact over the last 5 trading days when the pps has been going down. Before that pps was rising on high volumes. Say a lot about manipulation. Really no sellers just manipulators..
Like I said. If there was any real buying (higher volume) ratehr than the shorts and MMS playing with themselves with 100 shares back and forth the pps will shoot up. Just imagine what would happen if some tute really bought 2M today?
The real gaps I like LONGS to fill is the one in shorts A$$es..if you know what I mean! With the impending catalysts at the end of this year and early 2014 and beyond..I sure hope that gap is filled!
My crystal ball notwithstanding, intraday turnaround as predicted occurred and you will see higher pps all week. If you read what I wrote, the pps will be week due to those holidays, as it was for the Thanksgiving week. 2014 will be a big winner for arena probably as big as it was in 2012.
Clearly, short term traders are playing it like a banjo as the events of last week (weak script numbers due to 2 day holiday week) was expected and they sold or shorted more. Now that is in the rear view mirror. They will play for much better numbers this Friday..so once the selling exhausts itself today, fresh buying ahead of the numbers will start soon..and absolutely by tomorrow!
I am thinking of taking advantage of that playbook for the next two predictable events..weak sales on Jan 3rd report (encompassing xmas holidays) and then again in Jan 10th (New years holidays). I will sell half of my holdings in the week of Dec 27th and buy back all my shares in the week of Dec 10th (after 2 weeks of expected but manipulated and misinterpreted script numbers). After that no playing and just holding as the insurance coverage will go up, TV ads will hit the airwaves, and the sales will increase as well. Not to mention that arena will report a profitable year in a long time (both Q4 and 2013 will be profitable).
So remember: This week, scripts are going to be 2-% to 40% up, followed by 2 weeks of 5-7% growth. Then 2 bumpy weeks where there will be shenanigans again by the short sellers (and who wish ill on arena). However, after that one has agree that the only thing shorts can count on or will depend on is the scripts never make it above 10K per week..which is a big if especially since first half of the year is generally very strong for obesity related products!
That would be at 6 months, and we haven't see the effect of increased sales force, DTC ad and to be announced TV ads. Stock may reach at least 8.50 to 9 by Dec 31st!
What's your point? ARNA has approved drug that has seen script growth pretty much every week since launch. Has pocketed more than 200M dollars on EISAI deals and has 1.4B in milestones lined up as the script growth continues. Also it collects more in royalty (net sales) than Orex will ever collect. And afder adcom and FDA process at least 6-8 months before launch. SO the pps appreiciation of orex is just the reflection of where WSs dollars are invested now..not necessarily which will be more successful. If I were you you would wnat to ride this pump until adcom and approval afetr which it will have the same fate as the other 2 once the sales #s start trickling in...
The shorts are trying to take advantage of the reduced volume towards the end but it looks like buyers are ready at any weakness..and volume this high for the day...shorts shares don;t make that much influence...
Not true at all. All the weak hands have been pushed out when the pps dropped to 4.05 a few weeks ago. ARNA selling exhausted itself around that time..so the fluctuation you get now is just normal due to so much appreciation (50%) within 3 weeks. This Friday #s are going to be at least 5% or more, and pps will jump come Friday. Next week is tricky because of Thanksgiving week but the tutes may be eying to buy more next week.....due to knee0jerk selling due to lower scripts next week..
What gives? WHo are selling? I believe there is more short selling (likely naked shorting) going on. It may go upto 70M at this rate in the next reporting time!! I guess the day trader trend trader types are getting out before the break??
Oh Yeah I forgot to mention the momentum players getting in on the action..fundamental or not if the stock is on the radar and has a momentum,,it becomes self0fulfilling and pps can jump with or without a reason!
If we close at or above $8 by the end of this year...that will be a good base to spring from and if scripts keep pace and TV ads start having some traction, $40 in 2014 is not impossible....as the demand for shares will create the perfect storm:
1. 60M shares need to cover (demand)
2. Tutes on the sidelines, once the pps is above or near 10 will start buying in earnest (demand)
3. TV ads will create demand at the drs office
4. catalysts from the ROW sales and approvals
5. Progress of arena pipeline drugs (huge indications)
6. Bel-Phen : need I say more??
based on the significant increase in volume and consistency in ah pps, this is real and will open 3% higher tomorrow morning. Either some good news or plain old short squeeze in action
Lets not get too excited about Ah, 1000 traded at 6.28. Usually mean nothing. Could be just the unregistered trade from regular trading that got cleared AH. But technically things are looking good, the momentum continues...hopefully with any PR from EISAI and ARNA we can reach 7 by the end of this week...only three trading days though! They could announce the p4 trials start with bel/phen and progress in EU filing and Canada. swissmedic, mexico and Brazil filing. How about S Korea and Taiwan? Any of those news could send the pps above 7..but although I hope swissmedic is positive..initial indications are they may turn it down just like EU....
The good thing now is that arena and EISAI are aware of CS and LK agendas. Also, Arena is no longer in that quiet period when they had to keep it quiet even when they knew full well that CS/LK were lying and distorting the truth to achieve their own selfish goals. Now they can freely share and announce any positive news as they come. For arena management its all about managing expectations so that these thugs don;t take advantage of arena shareholders.
Just the fact that he says nothing about anything positive (like milestones, positive cash flow for 2013, and likely positive cash flow for 1014 and beyond, and ignores the pipeline) says it all. I just wish the script growth takes the exponential growth soon and that TV ads hit the airwaves withing weeks.
I say we have a good possibility of crossing 10 by year end. Tomorrows scripts may provide the impetus. Also there are many catalysts before the end of 2013, booking of $60M deal payment from eisai, updates from Canada, South Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, filing in Brazil. New deals regarding Australia, Israel. Announcement of Bel/phen combo trial/updates..list goes on...we may see 10 by the end of December...
1. Scripts show traction of 5% or more (last 3-4 weeks have been strong)
2. Arena announces receipt of $60M from EISAI for WW rights.
3. Arena/EISAI announce start of Phase 4 Bel/Phen combo study
4, positive update from Swissmedic, Canada, Mexico, South K, Taiwan
5. Refiling strategy or timeline for EU approval etc.
They should use just one or two ammos..god knows we will need more next week and the weeks after to change the WS tide for good!