maybe we will get more info from Sanofi and others at the upcoming conference. Positive Kadcyla alone could get the stock up several points. The others are icing. This price sure seems cheap, but many times there's a reason a stock is cheap. I think that when we get more clarity on 289, if it's as interesting as expected, this could be the catalyst to an acquisition. IMO.
Is ARNA working on a new and improved Belviq? It seems like the results are always "pretty good" but not great, it works, but...Are they working on a next generation Belviq that will be more selective, more potent, with less side effects (not that side effects are high, but they can always be lower). Just curious.
Also, what do you think about the pipeline? Did Jack say phase I results for the autoimmune would be out in Q4? I could not hear him clearly on that topic. It seems like the pipeline might be reaching an inflection point where they can partner. At the current burn rate, ARNA is down to about 2 years of cash, so we need something to work soon to avoid low-priced dilution.
these cocka roches always show up at another firm within a short period, so it will probably come back at some point.
Doubtful he would be on Street Signs to discuss 3Q results. If true, something bigger is going to be announced on Monday. I guess he will be missing the cc, or phoning in?
off-label can be written, insurance will not pay for off-label, so they would need to do a larger, confirmatory study and file a supplemental new drug application. The good news is that the filing requirements would be much less difficult since safety, manufacturing, etc. has all been established/verified. We already know that Bel is far safer than the competing drugs. We just need to see efficacy numbers that are somewhat similar to the leaders IMO.
true, but this is always the problem with IMGN, they can't seem to figure out dosing, patient population, something is always screwed in the mid-stage trials. Maybe that's because the older drugs just did not work as well as expected and maybe they will get it right this time. I would just prefer for them to partner with people that are experts and let them figure it out.
They need to get 289 on the fastest possible track, but they really don't have the money, or expertise. If Kadcyla results point to higher future revs, that will allow them to hold and develop longer, but I just don't have confidence (nor does the market) that they have the required expertise and/or resources to do advanced clinical development.
I think scripts will get a good bounce after the obesity conference and heading into the new year. We do need some good results in smoking cessation to put a dent in the short thesis at least in the short term.
since the market cap grew, should be a net buy/positive at some point. The questions is, how much has been anticipated/bought already. Might be a good day to buy the dip!
This is what they do, they sell into all good news, sell on up market days, sell after conference calls, all with the goals of destroying investor confidence, holding down price gains and ruining the technicals/charts. They then buy back during big down days. This all works unless/until ARNA attracts new, large volume institutional buyers that they can't push around. To win you have to wither be patient and ignore it, or use it to your advantage and trade, or sell some calls against them sell puts when price goes down and call when price is up. The only risk with this strategy is if ARNA is acquired, at least the selling calls part. "Options as a Strategic Investment" is an excellent book if you are not familiar with options. ALL FYI and IMO, not intended as advice.
The cost to shorts for maintaining their large short position has to be getting very high and the potential reward is shrinking. They are probably looking for an exit strategy. They should have exited when JL sold. Who knows, maybe they have leverage on him and made him sell. Management has been very helpful to the shorts so far. Let's hope ARNA management does not make any new/additional shareholder unfriendly decisions (secondary) to help them exit.
same here, hate to sell early, sold 1000 too soon, can't sell any more until I buy back some covered calls, or I may just wait...
SGEN may drag IMGN along. Current price is a mini break out. Maybe some new shorts will be forced to cover due to the market action. It's a bad time and time of year to be short!
The present issue is not getting a script. I have one, but I am not going to order the test until my insurance company Cigna agrees to pay for the test. Soon after CMS pricing I hope. Others should do the same, maybe it will help speed up the process of insurance companies deciding to reimburse.
TW has been the only ARNA bull, so I agree, it would be good to know what he is thinking. I suspect that like all of us he is hoping for some good smoking cessation results to bolster the case for his high price target. Maybe he will come down another $1 on the PT. I will take $10 any time in 2015 and be very happy, but not quite retired.
Under Reg FD, they need to get any material info out to everyone immediately. I suppose they can tinker around with the analysis and in that way delay/control the timing of the release. ARNA investors need some good news that translates into commercial sales and future sales growth potential and the sooner we get that the better.
take a look at OI today and see if it's changes. It might be someone who sold the 7.5 buying them back and re-selling the $15's.
I think this is more interesting and exciting than the Roche news and potentially news worthy. As usual, see the IV or IMGN IR board for details and a link. IMGN's scientific teams also received some awards at the ADC conference.
There was no award given for worst CEO.