Under the terms of the agreement, Arena will receive from Eisai an upfront
payment of $60 million and is eligible to receive up to a total of $176.5
million in regulatory and development milestone payments. The total for
milestone payments represents an increase of $123 million from the amount
remaining available under the previous agreement.
shorts and journalists seem to have a different thought on this, they want to tarnish the company, platform, technology and scare people out of the stock. I think many long term longs knew 901 was a very long shot and old technology. Let's see if the 3-day rule is in effect. I expect one last shot early in the morning, then potentially some buying and hopefully a + day today.
Where is the Sanofi news? Where is DJ and IR? Maybe the BOD has finally called that emergency meeting I have been requesting for some time to replace DJ with Howard Pien from the BOD (who sold MEDX and I think Chiron) in the interim while they explore all options like hiring a proven leader, a sale, etc.
the perception of risk and the discount rate placed on the probability of future sales and earnings for the whole industry went up. There were a few trial issues with other companies, Baby went out with bath water, people started taking profits, shorts smelled blood and jumped in...
royalties are more like 3% on the first 800MM/yr then 5% on amounts over that level. Eurpoe will be on line for most of 2014, then hopefully sales will make a big jump in 2015 to multi $BB's when it's approved for first line. Breakeven could be achieved in 2015-2016 if they keep costs low and continue partnering. Since they can't design and execute a phase II trial properly, they need to work with partners.
Hopefully one of the partners, Roche, LLY, Novartis, AMGN, Sanofi, or Bayer will hhave some success this year to regain the lost momentum and maybe one of them will make an offer. Let's keep the heat on IMGN execs and the BOD to clean house and bring in a winner, like the former ONXX CEO.
DJ should retire, resign, or be forced out ASAP and take IR and the failed drug developers with him.
yes, valuation is cheap, or has room fro growth assuming continued progress toward commercial launch, no disasters, etc. Considering the recent volatility, maybe they will become open to a good offer. $32 sounds fine to me right now.
when JL talks the stock goes down, in fact it may be going down now because they know JL will talk tomorrow. The only thing positive JL could say is, I Resign! That would make the stock go UP!
Glad to see everyone is finally coming around on DJ, he's got to go along with IR and a few of the development pin heads. IMGN will have some news from the Sanofi drugs and BT drug (not expecting much from BT) this week, so this will provide an opportunity to respond with a stronger PR. This attack should have been predicted and much of the decline should have been prevented.
I traded 2 short emails with AF yesterday and he seemed to think 901 was a big deal for IMGN and investors "should take responsibility for their mistakes" like IMGN 901 was a big event and as he still apparently believes, likely based on what he was told by his hedge fund handlers, 901 is similar to the other IMGN drugs. I am not invested in IMGN for 901 and never gave it much weight, or probability of success and therefore assumed others, analysts, hedge funds with all of their DD expected the same. Maybe they did and they are helping shorts escape, or long clients buy low.
I continue to think shorts overplayed this, it's not a big deal and IMGN is worth $14 just based on Kad royalties and cash with no value placed on their entire internal or partner pipeline. Back to the day job now.
Kadcyla + cash is worth more than the current price, this is absurd. Roche, or another biotech could pay $20+ with their pocket change. Where is the company response to AF's allegations?
AF has trashed the company and their technology and what is IMGN's response/defense? So far, I have only seen some weak addition to the web site (below). This is inadequate! IMGN's executive management is failing in every possible way and must be replaced. CEO and IR have lost all credibility and must be replaced. Drug development people who failed to stop, or fix 901 must be replaced by competent drug development pros, or
IMGN can change the model, downsize and focus on drug discovery and maybe do phase I testing through consultants, then license to Roche, or even SGEN. This would allow IMGN to downsize, cut costs and maybe beef up discovery with the remaining cash and flow from Kadcyla and other drugs as approved.
Another alternative is to sell to the highest bidder, or in parts. They have a new technology that might be sufficient to start a whole new business, but that would require funding and competence.
Another alternative is to find a white knight investor BB's. Sell them 2-3MM shares at $13 and shorts will flee like the rats they are.
This is the response???
Kadcyla® uses ImmunoGen’s ADC technology – our thioether (SMCC) linker, our DM1 payload – as described in claim 2 of one of our patents covering this product.
AF just throws #$%$ on the wall and hopes it sticks/scares investors. He's a short tool, all puns intended. the article is a hit piece, IMGN should have prevented it with better anticipation and communication, now they need to defend their technology, drugs and linkers, differentiate 901 from the other drugs and explain why 901 did not work, or that 901 failure is not predictive of other failures. Also, nothing works in lung cancer so far, so add that to the list of hurdles. I knew 901 was a loser, I never assigned 901 much value, I expected IMGN would decline anyway for a short time, I did not expect the news would come so soon. I was hoping to have time to prepare by selling calls.
For those of you who are able, put sales look very interesting/attractive. The Dec or Jan $14's and, 15's have a good probability of a positive return. IMO, not advice, put sales require liquidity, you may have to buy the stock. I think someone sold a large volume of Nov 13's today.
amen brother, I am all over it. Sent messages to most of the BOD, Junius and co must go. AF insists he is right BTW, so don't expect a retraction unless IMGN convinces him he is wrong and, or threatens to sue him. Some great posters on the IV board have posted for awhile that Roche made improvements/changes to the linkers, 901 is an unimproved, old linker and the new drugs use the new, improved linkers. On that, IMGN management needs to be clear and so far they are dropping the ball!
They should have anticipated an AF hit piece and got out in front of it with a CC, and/or a better-written PR. This is what you get when you don't employ a strategic IR pro and have a CFO for CEO and terrible drug development pros. If you read the IV posts, 901 failure was predicted long ago by a poster who understands the linker issue/differences. 901 is old technology, other drugs use technology similar to Kadcyla.
I sent an em to AF asking him what research he did to reach his false conclusion. I suggested his article is Libel and he should correct and retract. IMGN must go after him. 901 is old technology, not related to the new drugs. That Joel Sendek is a real POS also.
See the IV board post 37920. I tried to cut and paste, but Yahoo blocked it.
I did read from the IV web site that Roche evaluated various linkers and ruled some out (including the one used in 901) In fact, after reading that I caled IMGN IR and asked a very pointed question about Roche working on the linker and ruling out the type of linker used in 901 and was told by IR something to the effect "linkers vary in their properties and they test various linkers and select the right one.
AF Stating that they radically re-engineered the linked and chemo seems misleading and a blatant attempt to place in doubt all of the IMGN-owned compounds. Even if all 3 wholly-owned compounds needed to be re-engineered, which is doubtful, they still have partnership compounds with AMGN, LLY, Sanofi and Bayer.
901 is old technology, but AF"s article has tainted, or called into question the entire pipeline and technology. IMGN execs should have anticipated this and scheduled a CC to differentiate 901 from their newer drugs. Let us know what you hear from Carol and co, but frankly I don't trust her, or Junius. I did just send another note to the BOD Members calling for an emergency meeting, replacement of Junius, IR and development execs, hiring of an interim CEO, prefer Pien and requesting they consider all options for maximizing shareholder value!
I have been predicting 901 failure for the past year+ mostly based on comments from long time owners/posters on the IV board. The timing was the difficult thing to predict, but not the outcome. It's a non-event in the long run, a trading opportunity and an opportunity for shorts to escape. AF said IMGN is worth $14, he must assume nothing else in the pipeline works.