CELG and many other leading oncology bio-pharmas are shelling out big bucks to partner with and lend their drug development expertise to smaller biotech's with interesting science and compounds. IMGN employs a VP, Director and at least one other Bus Dev person not doing any Bus Dev. If they are not going to do bus dev, they should slim down, save the money. If they are, they should be signing deals with successful oncology companies like CELG and not wasting time with loser development firms like LLY. Has LLY successfully developed an oncology product? Have they gained approval of anything they developed in the past 10 years? They are almost as bad at drug development as IMGN.
strange day for a big move considering the Puma news and stock move. Not sure it that's a direct competitor to Kadcyla. There's an I-Spy trial going on with Kad and Perjeta, maybe that will also report soon???
the guy is a bean counter with no advanced degree, he would not even be a Finance Director at big pharma, or large biotech. He's probably the most overpaid financial person in Biotech. Not a fan!
It's too early to forecast Bel revs with any accuracy. Maybe by mid-late 2014 the sales potential will be more clear. It's certainly not going to be 2014 and probably not 2015. If sales growth accelerates and they partner the pipeline, so no non-Bel phase III trial costs, my guess is some time in 2016 they get close to B/E, but that's a wild #$%$ guess.
No worries, the technicals were very overbought, rolled over, stocks always go down faster than they go up. Looks for stabilization between here and $6 before the next leg up, absent of any significant news. IMO, sell the $6 Jan or Feb puts here for income.
Not sure I see anything negative here except a lack of understanding from the writer of this foolish article. Anyone who follows the companies, the drugs and the clinical trials can clearly see Roche plans to replace Herceptin with Kadcyla in every possible indication. They are spending, have spent and continue to spend hundreds on millions on clinical trials for Kadcyla.
very unusual open this morning, down nearly $1 on low volume and coming back now. Great for traders, annoying for people looking for LT growth. I don't see any news or tweets, maybe an obscure analyst report is out there some where, or just profit taking from the recent mini run. Still waaaaay below fair value based on sum of the parts, but lacking catalyst over the next few months.
did you mention Jan is prime time weight loss season. Skip the gym, order Belviq and take a walk, do some push ups and sit ups, buy a bike...move your #$%$
1349 was the AH volume last night according to NASDAQ web site??? Where did you see this large AH volume? Was there some off market trading that was not listed in Nasdaq?
he's an angry guy, with good reason (assuming he's a frustrated long-time shareholder), but provides no constructive ideas/solutions. He should really find another hobby, something more fun, productive, or just trade the stock.
Thanks. I took a quick look and hopefully we will learn more about the development plans during, or after the oral presentation. It appears all 3 molecules have some activity. The patient population is so difficult/advanced it's really hard to determine success in these patients. The BT results appear most interesting IMO, but the trial size was very small. The Sanofi naked antibody also looks interesting, but early stage. The Sanofi ADC appears to require more testing to identify the best patient population, so it may not be a large market product and is not ready to move into phase III.
The IMGN pipeline looks interesting, but it appears IMGN investors are going to have to wait longer for any major value drivers from the pipeline other than Kadcyla. Since investors are tired of waiting, the BOD should take action now to get IMGN up to full value, or $24. (IMO and best guess based on a sum of the parts estimate)
yes, I had kind of written off the BT drug mostly because I don't know much about the company, but that looks interesting. The Sanofi drug is an antibody, not an ADC. The Sanofi-IMGN ADC in phase II update is an abstract, so it seems like that drug may not be competitive, which is disappointing. Not sure if that one uses the same linker and DM1. I seem to recall IMGN saying this ADC uses a non-potent, dummy molecule? I wish IMGN would spell out in detail on the web site, the molecule, linker and killing agent used for each molecule.
thanks, I never did see the numbers. That's strong considering the 4-day week and near the holidays. Can't wait to see the Jan-Feb numbers.
A vary large volume of calls have traded today compared to the usual volume and the price of the calls is up much more than the stock. This is worth noting. Why would the Dec 17 calls be bid at .20 of the Dec $18 calls at .15. Maybe something is up???
Feel free to question, challenge, or suggest improvements. I feel these values are very conservative:
SAR-$250MM (assumtions $100MM for phase II, $50 for phase 1, $25 for undisclosed)
AMGN- $200 (75 + 75 + 25 + 25)
NVS- $75 (25 x 3 all undisclosed)
$1BB= Pipeline valuation estimate excluding Kadcyla
$1BB= Present value of Kadcyla revs
$250= value of all technology, linkers, DM1, new technology
$2.4BB is the total and again I think this is very conservative. That's double the current valuation.. All IMO
Excellent article in FierceBiotech today regarding the rise in the number of early stage deals and rise in the prices paid. If you add the sum of the parts for each IMGN owned molecule, partnership deals, Kadcyla, cash and the technology, IMGN would probably be worth double the current valuation. I will take a double now and walk away happy. Get it done BOD before Junius does any more damage!